The Zero Option

The Zero Option
Author: David Rollins
Publisher: Pan Australia
Total Pages: 529
Release: 2009-07-01
Genre: Fiction
ISBN: 1741987350

The Cold War is going badly for President Reagan's administration. Support in Europe for the Soviet Union is on the rise, while acceptance of the new US intermediate range nuclear missiles is waning. Enter Roy Garret, a bright young NSA analyst with a plan. It goes into effect on the morning of 1 September 1983 when Korean Air Lines commercial passenger flight 007 takes off from Anchorage, Alaska, heading for Seoul. The airliner rendezvous with a US spy plane over the Bearing Sea, overflies a top secret Soviet submarine base and is then shot down off Sakhalin Island... Or is it? No wreckage or bodies are recovered. And a radar tape that shows what really happened to KAL 007 has gone missing. On board the downed airliner were 269 souls, including one US Congressman with too many secrets. Thirty years later, the missing radar tape falls into the hands of the daughter of a KAL 007 passenger and the son of the US spy plane commander. Determined to keep the facts hidden after all these years is New Mexico Governor Roy Garret, who is now contesting the US presidency. What follows is a desperate chase across Russia to uncover the truth once and for all from beneath the snows of Siberia. Can two young idealists outwit the forces ranged against them, or will Uncle Sam and the Russian Bear sweep history under the carpet again?

Zero Option

Zero Option
Author: P. T. Deutermann
Publisher: Macmillan
Total Pages: 436
Release: 1999-09-15
Genre: Fiction
ISBN: 9780312970048

A cylinder of nerve gas is discovered to be missing from its depot in Georgia and military investigator David Stafford is ordered to find it. The trail leads him to a racket involving the sale of military surplus for huge amounts of money.

Prospect Theory

Prospect Theory
Author: Fouad Sabry
Publisher: One Billion Knowledgeable
Total Pages: 280
Release: 2024-01-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

What is Prospect Theory Prospect theory is a theory of behavioral economics, judgment, and decision making that was established by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in 1979. Prospect theory was named after the aforementioned scholars. The theory was taken into consideration when Kahneman was selected to receive the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics in the year 2002. How you will benefit (I) Insights, and validations about the following topics: Chapter 1: Prospect theory Chapter 2: Behavioral economics Chapter 3: Risk aversion Chapter 4: Decision theory Chapter 5: Loss aversion Chapter 6: Expected utility hypothesis Chapter 7: Mental accounting Chapter 8: Allais paradox Chapter 9: Stochastic dominance Chapter 10: Cumulative prospect theory Chapter 11: Merton's portfolio problem Chapter 12: Rank-dependent expected utility Chapter 13: Lévy-Prokhorov metric Chapter 14: Choquet integral Chapter 15: Von Neumann-Morgenstern utility theorem Chapter 16: Certainty effect Chapter 17: End-of-the-day betting effect Chapter 18: Mean-field game theory Chapter 19: Risk aversion (psychology) Chapter 20: Priority heuristic Chapter 21: Uncertainty effect (II) Answering the public top questions about prospect theory. (III) Real world examples for the usage of prospect theory in many fields. Who this book is for Professionals, undergraduate and graduate students, enthusiasts, hobbyists, and those who want to go beyond basic knowledge or information for any kind of Prospect Theory.

Third-Order Risk Preferences and Cumulative Prospect Theory

Third-Order Risk Preferences and Cumulative Prospect Theory
Author: Michael Borß
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
Total Pages: 250
Release: 2017-03-02
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 384410500X

There is broad theoretical and empirical evidence that investors exhibit a preference for skewness. However, there is little research regarding the extent to which individuals really favor positive skewness in individual decision making. In this dissertation, a controlled laboratory experiment is used to test for skewness preferences and prudence – a broader third-order risk preference that is closely linked to skewness preferences. Skewness and prudence preferences are further analyzed both within an Expected Utility Theory framework as well as with Cumulative Prospect Theory. For this, a sound experimental setup is used that also excludes any potentially distortionary effects from loss aversion. This dissertation therefore contributes to better understanding of individual risk preferences and other impact factors, such as a more “rational” vs. a more “intuitive” decision making process in individual decision making.

Why Movements Matter

Why Movements Matter
Author: Steve Breyman
Publisher: State University of New York Press
Total Pages: 388
Release: 2001-07-12
Genre: Psychology
ISBN: 0791492206

Why Movements Matter is a provocative account of how the Reagan administration relented to pressures created by international peace movements during one of the most dangerous episodes of the Cold War. Breyman provides the first systematic account of the West German anti-missile movement, among the most important citizen mobilizations of postwar Western history. Contrary to conventional wisdom Breyman offers compelling evidence that peace movements, rather than any escalation of Cold War spending or rhetorical belligerence, hastened the demise of the Cold War. The product of extensive research, Why Movements Matter advances social movement theory and the political sociology of peace movements, expands our understanding of the interaction of political parties and political movements, explores the links between public opinion and organized dissent, and provides an assessment of a movement whose immediate impact shook the halls of power in Washington and Moscow, yet also had a deep and lasting influence on politics, culture, and society.

Way Out There In the Blue

Way Out There In the Blue
Author: Frances FitzGerald
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Total Pages: 588
Release: 2001-02-21
Genre: History
ISBN: 0743203771

Way Out There in the Blue is a major work of history by the Pulitzer Prize­winning author of Fire in the Lake. Using the Star Wars missile defense program as a magnifying glass on his presidency, Frances FitzGerald gives us a wholly original portrait of Ronald Reagan, the most puzzling president of the last half of the twentieth century. Reagan's presidency and the man himself have always been difficult to fathom. His influence was enormous, and the few powerful ideas he espoused remain with us still -- yet he seemed nothing more than a charming, simple-minded, inattentive actor. FitzGerald shows us a Reagan far more complex than the man we thought we knew. A master of the American language and of self-presentation, the greatest storyteller ever to occupy the Oval Office, Reagan created a compelling public persona that bore little relationship to himself. The real Ronald Reagan -- the Reagan who emerges from FitzGerald's book -- was a gifted politician with a deep understanding of the American national psyche and at the same time an executive almost totally disengaged from the policies of his administration and from the people who surrounded him. The idea that America should have an impregnable shield against nuclear weapons was Reagan's invention. His famous Star Wars speech, in which he promised us such a shield and called upon scientists to produce it, gave rise to the Strategic Defense Initiative. Reagan used his sure understanding of American mythology, history and politics to persuade the country that a perfect defense against Soviet nuclear weapons would be possible, even though the technology did not exist and was not remotely feasible. His idea turned into a multibillion-dollar research program. SDI played a central role in U.S.-Soviet relations at a crucial juncture in the Cold War, and in a different form it survives to this day. Drawing on prodigious research, including interviews with the participants, FitzGerald offers new insights into American foreign policy in the Reagan era. She gives us revealing portraits of major players in Reagan's administration, including George Shultz, Caspar Weinberger, Donald Regan and Paul Nitze, and she provides a radically new view of what happened at the Reagan-Gorbachev summits in Geneva, Reykjavik, Washington and Moscow. FitzGerald describes the fierce battles among Reagan's advisers and the frightening increase of Cold War tensions during Reagan's first term. She shows how the president who presided over the greatest peacetime military buildup came to espouse the elimination of nuclear weapons, and how the man who insisted that the Soviet Union was an "evil empire" came to embrace the Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, and to proclaim an end to the Cold War long before most in Washington understood that it had ended. Way Out There in the Blue is a ground-breaking history of the American side of the end of the Cold War. Both appalling and funny, it is a black comedy in which Reagan, playing the role he wrote for himself, is the hero.

Thatcherism

Thatcherism
Author: Martin Holmes
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 180
Release: 1989-07-06
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 1349200522

This book examines the pace of change and the nature of the Thatcherite revolution, 1983-87. It draws on 30 interviews with ministers and officials and offers a critique of existing theories of Thatcherism. The author assesses the progress of, opposition to and future of policy.

Sudan

Sudan
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 100
Release: 2014-12-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498371531

KEY ISSUES Context: Sudan’s economy has yet to recover from the shock of South Sudan’s secession three years ago, which took away three-quarters of oil production, half of its fiscal revenues, and two-thirds of its international payments capacity. Despite progress in implementing policies to address the resulting imbalances, inflation remains high and growth sluggish. Macroeconomic adjustment has been complicated by structural weaknesses, a heavy debt burden, U.S. sanctions, and volatile domestic and regional political factors. The authorities embarked earlier this year on a stabilization program supported by a Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). The program runs through end-2014, and the authorities have not yet decided if they want a new SMP; the mission for the third SMP review in December will discuss the matter with them. Developments, outlook, and risks. Economic performance this year has been mixed as growth has remained subdued and inflation still high at about 40 percent. Growth is expected to rebound in 2015, but the outlook remains uncertain. The risks are largely tilted to the downside, although prospects of a successful national dialogue could lead to resolution of domestic conflicts and improved international relations. Article IV. Discussions focused on policies to secure macroeconomic stability, strengthen social safety nets, and a move to sustainable and inclusive growth. Fiscal consolidation (through revenue mobilization and expenditure rationalization, including a gradual phase-out of fuel subsidies) should continue, accompanied by increased public investment and social spending. Tight monetary policy and lower central bank financing of the government should help lower inflation. There is also a need for steps to lower the large premium in the foreign exchange market. Stronger supervision is needed to improve banks’ resilience. More should be done to improve the business climate to boost growth. Program performance: The program remains on track. The authorities continue to minimize non-concessional borrowing and maintain satisfactory track record of payments to the Fund. They recently devalued the official exchange rate by 3 percent to help address external imbalances, which together with a large appreciation of the parallel market rate, has helped lower the premium. Going forward, priority should be given to further reducing inflation by continuing fiscal consolidation, tightening monetary policy, and gradually closing the gap between the official and parallel exchange rates. Debt relief. Relief requires reaching out to creditors, normalizing relations with international financial institutions, and continuing to establish a track record of cooperation with the IMF on policies and payments. The authorities’ agreement with South Sudan to extend the “zero option” by two years is a positive step.