Using Subjective Expectations to Forecast Longevity
Author | : Maria Perozek |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 64 |
Release | : 2005 |
Genre | : Life expectancy |
ISBN | : |
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Author | : Maria Perozek |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 64 |
Release | : 2005 |
Genre | : Life expectancy |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Daniel S. Hamermesh |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 52 |
Release | : 1982 |
Genre | : Cost and standard of living |
ISBN | : |
Unlike price expectations, which are central to macroeconomic theory and have been examined extensively using survey data, formation of individuals' horizons, which are central to the theory of life-cycle behavior, have been completely neglected. This is especially surprising since life expectancy of adults has increased especially rapidly in Western countries in the past ten years. This study presents the results of analyzing responses by two groups--economists and a random sample--to a questionnaire designed to elicit subjective expectations and probabilities of survival. It shows that people do not extrapolate past improvements in longevity when they determine their subjective horizons, though they are fully aware of levels of and movements within today's life tables. They skew subjective survival probabilities in a way that implies the subjective distribution has greater variance than its actuarial counterpart; and the subjective variance decreases with age. They also base their subjective horizons disproportionately on their relatives' longevity, and long-lived relatives increase uncertainty about the distribution of subjective survival probabilities. As one example of the many areas of life-cycle behavior to which the results are applicable, the study examines the consumption-leisure choices of the optimizing consumer over his lifetime. It finds that shortfalls in utility in old age because people's ex ante horizons had to be updated as -- average longevity increased are relatively small. This implies that large subsidies to retirees under today's Social Security system cannot be justified as compensation for an unexpectedly long retirement for which they failed to save.
Author | : Olivia S. Mitchell |
Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
Total Pages | : 353 |
Release | : 2022 |
Genre | : Law |
ISBN | : 0192859803 |
This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licence. It is free to read at Oxford Scholarship Online and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and selected open access locations. Notwithstanding the terrible price the world has paid in the coronavirus pandemic, the fact remains that longevity at older ages is likely to continue to rise in the medium and longer term. This volume explores how the private and public sectors can collaborate via public-private partnerships (PPPs) to develop new mechanisms to reduce older people's risk of outliving their assets in later life. As this volume shows, PPPs typically involve shared government financing alongside private sector partner expertise, management responsibility, and accountability. In addition to offering empirical evidence on examples where this is working well, contributors provide case studies, discuss survey results, and examine a variety of different financial and insurance products to better meet the needs of the aging population. This volume will be informative to researchers, plan sponsors, students, and policymakers seeking to enhance retirement plan offerings.
Author | : Ruediger Bachmann |
Publisher | : Elsevier |
Total Pages | : 876 |
Release | : 2022-11-04 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0128234768 |
Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. - Combines information about the creation of economic expectations and their theories, applications and likely futures - Provides a comprehensive summary of economics expectations literature - Explores empirical and theoretical dimensions of expectations and their relevance to a wide array of subfields in economics
Author | : Timothy P. Johnson |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 1136 |
Release | : 2018-10-30 |
Genre | : Social Science |
ISBN | : 1118884981 |
Covers the latest methodologies and research on international comparative surveys with contributions from noted experts in the field Advances in Comparative Survey Methodology examines the most recent advances in methodology and operations as well as the technical developments in international survey research. With contributions from a panel of international experts, the text includes information on the use of Big Data in concert with survey data, collecting biomarkers, the human subject regulatory environment, innovations in data collection methodology and sampling techniques, use of paradata across the survey lifecycle, metadata standards for dissemination, and new analytical techniques. This important resource: Contains contributions from key experts in their respective fields of study from around the globe Highlights innovative approaches in resource poor settings, and innovative approaches to combining survey and other data Includes material that is organized within the total survey error framework Presents extensive and up-to-date references throughout the book Written for students and academic survey researchers and market researchers engaged in comparative projects, this text represents a unique collaboration that features the latest methodologies and research on global comparative surveys.
Author | : United States. Congress. House. Committee on Financial Services. Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 256 |
Release | : 2009 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Susan K. Whitbourne |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 585 |
Release | : 2012-02-13 |
Genre | : Psychology |
ISBN | : 1444331477 |
This exceptional collection draws on the most recent demographic data and combines classic research with cutting-edge approaches to provide an invaluable overview of the developmental psychology of the adult years. Covers a wide range of topics within adult development and aging, from theoretical perspectives to specific content areas Includes newly commissioned essays from the top researchers in the field Takes a biopsychosocial perspective, covering the biological, psychological and social changes that occur in adulthood
Author | : Debra Umberson |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 265 |
Release | : 2003-04-28 |
Genre | : Psychology |
ISBN | : 1139440020 |
When a parent dies, most adults are seized by an unexpected crisis that can trigger a profound transformation. Using in-depth interviews and national surveys, Dr Umberson explains why the death of a parent has strong effects on adults and looks at protective factors that help some individuals experience better mental health following the death than they did when the parent was alive. This is the first book to rely on sound scientific method to document the significant adverse effects of parental death for adults in a national population. Exploring the social and psychological risk factors that make some people more vulnerable than others, readers will come to view the loss of a parent in a new way: as a turning point in adult development.
Author | : David A. Wise |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 399 |
Release | : 2017-03-20 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 022642667X |
The fraction of the population over age sixty-five in many developed countries is projected to rise, in some cases sharply, in coming decades. This has drawn growing interest to research on the health and economic circumstances of individuals as they age. Many individuals are retiring from paid work, yet they are living longer than ever. Their well-being is shaped by their past decisions such as their saving behavior, as well as by current and future economic conditions, health status, medical innovations, and a rapidly evolving landscape of policy incentives and supports. The contributions to Insights in the Economics of Aging uncover how financial, physical, and emotional well-being are integrally related. The authors consider the interactions between financial circumstances in later life, such as household savings and home ownership, physical circumstances such as health and disability, and emotional well-being, including happiness and mental health.