U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to GCC Countries: Do Oil Prices Matter?

U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to GCC Countries: Do Oil Prices Matter?
Author: Mr.Olumuyiwa S Adedeji
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 15
Release: 2019-12-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513525735

This paper provides empirical evidence that the size of the spillovers from U.S. monetary policy to non-oil GDP growth in the GCC countries depends on the level of oil prices. The potential channels through which oil prices could affect the effectiveness of monetary policy are discussed. We find that the level of oil prices tends to dampen or amplify the growth impact of changes in U.S. monetary policy on the non-oil economies in the GCC.

Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (GCC)

Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (GCC)
Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2011-10-02
Genre:
ISBN: 9781484383315

Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.

World Economic Outlook, October 2013

World Economic Outlook, October 2013
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 657
Release: 2013-10-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484348834

Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2016

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2016
Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 135
Release: 2016-04-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498363288

The current Global Financial Stability Report (April 2016) finds that global financial stability risks have risen since the last report in October 2015. The new report finds that the outlook has deteriorated in advanced economies because of heightened uncertainty and setbacks to growth and confidence, while declines in oil and commodity prices and slower growth have kept risks elevated in emerging markets. These developments have tightened financial conditions, reduced risk appetite, raised credit risks, and stymied balance sheet repair. A broad-based policy response is needed to secure financial stability. Advanced economies must deal with crisis legacy issues, emerging markets need to bolster their resilience to global headwinds, and the resilience of market liquidity should be enhanced. The report also examines financial spillovers from emerging market economies and finds that they have risen substantially. This implies that when assessing macro-financial conditions, policymakers may need to increasingly take into account economic developments in emerging market economies. Finally, the report assesses changes in the systemic importance of insurers, finding that across advanced economies the contribution of life insurers to systemic risk has increased in recent years. The results suggest that supervisors and regulators should take a more macroprudential approach to the sector.

Fiscal Adjustment in the Gulf Countries: Less Costly than Previously Thought

Fiscal Adjustment in the Gulf Countries: Less Costly than Previously Thought
Author: Mr.Armand Fouejieu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 27
Release: 2018-06-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484363272

This paper estimates fiscal multipliers for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Using OLS panel fixed effects on a sample of six countries from 1990-2016, results indicate that GCC fiscal multipliers have declined in recent years which would make the on-going fiscal consolidation less costly than previously thought. Though both capital and current multipliers have declined in recent years, capital multipliers are larger than current multipliers, which implies that reducing (less productive) current spending will help limit the adverse impact of such measures on growth.

Economic Diversification in the GCC

Economic Diversification in the GCC
Author: Mr.Tim Callen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2014-12-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498303234

Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, success to date has been limited. This paper argues that increased diversification will require realigning incentives for firms and workers in the economies—fixing these incentives is the “missing link” in the GCC countries’ diversification strategies. At present, producing non-tradables is less risky and more profitable for firms as they can benefit from the easy availability of low-wage foreign labor and the rapid growth in government spending, while the continued availability of high-paying and secure public sector jobs discourages nationals from pursuing entrepreneurship and private sector employment. Measures to begin to address these incentive issues could include limiting and reorienting government spending, strengthening private sector competition, providing guarantees and financial support for those firms engaged in export activity, and implementing labor market reforms to make nationals more competitive for private sector employment.

World Economic Outlook, October 2007

World Economic Outlook, October 2007
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 277
Release: 2007-04-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 158906688X

The global economy grew strongly in the first half of 2007, although turbulence in financial markets has clouded prospects. While the 2007 forecast has been little affected, the baseline projection for 2008 global growth has been reduced by almost 1⁄2 percentage point relative to the July 2007 World Economic Outlook Update. This would still leave global growth at a solid 43⁄4 percent, supported by generally sound fundamentals and strong momentum in emerging market economies. Risks to the outlook, however, are firmly on the downside, centered around the concern that financial market strains could deepen and trigger a more pronounced global slowdown. Thus, the immediate focus of policymakers is to restore more normal financial market conditions and safeguard the expansion. Additional risks to the outlook include potential inflation pressures, volatile oil markets, and the impact on emerging markets of strong foreign exchange inflows. At the same time, longer-term issues such as population aging, increasing resistance to globalization, and global warming are a source of concern.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2022-08-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Selected Issues

Kuwait

Kuwait
Author: International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 29
Release: 2023-09-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Kuwait: Selected Issues

Monetary Issues in the Middle East and North Africa Region

Monetary Issues in the Middle East and North Africa Region
Author: Mr.Simon Gray
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 176
Release: 2013-05-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484349032

This paper documents the main themes covered in two seminars (December 2011 and September 2012) on monetary policy and implementation at the IMF—Middle East Center for Economics and Finance, and includes country case studies. Against the backdrop of the global financial crisis and swings in cross-border capital flows, operational frameworks have become more flexible, and liquidity management has impacted the relationship between the policy rate corridor and market rates. The balance sheet structure of central banks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) shows differences between oil exporters and others, while a few countries have exhibited notable changes since early 2011. Collateral now has a significant financial stability function. Although only one MENA country is part of the G20, implementation of the Basel III bank capital adequacy and liquidity rules will most likely impact banks’ way of doing business in MENA countries, even if indirectly.