U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities

U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 286
Release: 2015-01-02
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 0309298741

Since the early 1960s, the U.S. strategic nuclear posture has been composed of a triad of nuclear-certified long-range bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Since the early 1970s, U.S. nuclear forces have been subject to strategic arms control agreements. The large numbers and diversified nature of the U.S. nonstrategic (tactical) nuclear forces, which cannot be ignored as part of the overall nuclear deterrent, have decreased substantially since the Cold War. While there is domestic consensus today on the need to maintain an effective deterrent, there is no consensus on precisely what that requires, especially in a changing geopolitical environment and with continued reductions in nuclear arms. This places a premium on having the best possible analytic tools, methods, and approaches for understanding how nuclear deterrence and assurance work, how they might fail, and how failure can be averted by U.S. nuclear forces. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Analytic Capabilities identifies the broad analytic issues and factors that must be considered in seeking nuclear deterrence of adversaries and assurance of allies in the 21st century. This report describes and assesses tools, methods - including behavioral science-based methods - and approaches for improving the understanding of how nuclear deterrence and assurance work or may fail in the 21st century and the extent to which such failures might be averted or mitigated by the proper choice of nuclear systems, technological capabilities, postures, and concepts of operation of American nuclear forces. The report recommends criteria and a framework for validating the tools, methods, and approaches and for identifying those most promising for Air Force usage.

U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment

U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 63
Release: 2013-01-01
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 030928550X

Changes in the 21st century security environment require new analytic approaches to support strategic deterrence. Because current adversaries may be deterred from the use of nuclear weapons differently than were Cold War adversaries, the Air Force needs an analytic process and tools that can help determine those Air Force capabilities that will successfully deter or defeat these new nuclear-armed adversaries and assure U.S. allies. While some analytic tools are available, a coherent approach for their use in developing strategy and policy appears to be lacking. Without a coherent analytic approach that addresses the nuances of today's security environment, Air Force views of its strategic deterrence needs may not be understood or accepted by the appropriate decision makers. A coherent approach will support Air Force decisions about its strategic force priorities and needs, deter actual or potential adversaries, and assure U.S. allies. In this context, the Air Force in 2012 requested that the Air Force Studies Board of the National Research Council undertake a workshop to bring together national experts to discuss current challenges relating strategic deterrence and potential new tools and methods that the Air Force might leverage in its strategic deterrence mission. The workshop consisted of two 3-day sessions held in Washington, DC on September 26-28, 2012 and January 29-31, 2013 and was attended by a very diverse set of participants with expertise in strategic deterrence and a range of analytic tools of potential interest to the Air Force. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment summarizes this workshop.

U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment

U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment
Author: Norm Haller
Publisher:
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2013
Genre: Air power
ISBN:

"Changes in the 21st century security environment require new analytic approaches to support strategic deterrence. Because current adversaries may be deterred from the use of nuclear weapons differently than were Cold War adversaries, the Air Force needs an analytic process and tools that can help determine those Air Force capabilities that will successfully deter or defeat these new nuclear-armed adversaries and assure U.S. allies. While some analytic tools are available, a coherent approach for their use in developing strategy and policy appears to be lacking. Without a coherent analytic approach that addresses the nuances of today's security environment, Air Force views of its strategic deterrence needs may not be understood or accepted by the appropriate decision makers. A coherent approach will support Air Force decisions about its strategic force priorities and needs, deter actual or potential adversaries, and assure U.S. allies. In this context, the Air Force in 2012 requested that the Air Force Studies Board of the National Research Council undertake a workshop to bring together national experts to discuss current challenges relating strategic deterrence and potential new tools and methods that the Air Force might leverage in its strategic deterrence mission. The workshop consisted of two 3-day sessions held in Washington, DC on September 26-28, 2012 and January 29-31, 2013 and was attended by a very diverse set of participants with expertise in strategic deterrence and a range of analytic tools of potential interest to the Air Force. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment summarizes this workshop."--Publisher's description.

Arms and Influence

Arms and Influence
Author: Thomas C. Schelling
Publisher: Yale University Press
Total Pages: 337
Release: 2020-03-17
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0300253486

“This is a brilliant and hardheaded book. It will frighten those who prefer not to dwell on the unthinkable and infuriate those who have taken refuge in stereotypes and moral attitudinizing.”—Gordon A. Craig, New York Times Book Review Originally published more than fifty years ago, this landmark book explores the ways in which military capabilities—real or imagined—are used, skillfully or clumsily, as bargaining power. Anne-Marie Slaughter’s new introduction to the work shows how Schelling’s framework—conceived of in a time of superpowers and mutually assured destruction—still applies to our multipolar world, where wars are fought as much online as on the ground.

The Future of the U.S. Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Force

The Future of the U.S. Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Force
Author: Lauren Caston
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Total Pages: 185
Release: 2014-02-04
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0833076264

The authors assess alternatives for a next-generation intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) across a broad set of potential characteristics and situations. They use the current Minuteman III as a baseline to develop a framework to characterize alternative classes of ICBMs, assess the survivability and effectiveness of possible alternatives, and weigh those alternatives against their cost.

Air Force Strategy Study 2020-2030

Air Force Strategy Study 2020-2030
Author: John A. Shaud
Publisher: Createspace Independent Pub
Total Pages: 150
Release: 2012-08-06
Genre: History
ISBN: 9781478380207

In November 2009, Gen Norton A. Schwartz, the Air Force chief of staff, tasked the Air Force Research Institute (AFRI) to answer the following question: What critical capabilities—implemented by the combatant commanders—will the nation require of the Air Force by 2030? Preparing for the challenges of a geostrategic environment 20 years in the future required a multiphase research plan. First, the AFRI team identified the nation's vital interests: commerce; secure energy supplies; freedom of action at sea, in space, in cyberspace, and in the skies; nuclear deterrence; and regional stability. The team analyzed four future world scenarios—a peer competitor, resurgent power, failed state, and jihadist insurgency—in relation to the nation's vital interests and the 12 Air Force core functions. The resulting analysis led to a synthesis of the core functions into five critical capabilities designed to meet the Air Force's strategic challenges in 2030: power projection; freedom of action in air, space, and cyberspace; global situational awareness; air diplomacy; and military support to civil authorities (MSCA). For several reasons, the service's ability to project power will be severely tested over the next generation. Because many current systems are reaching the end of their service lives, the Air Force must recapitalize these assets to maintain its ability to project power. Domestic and international pressures may dictate that American forces operate from fewer overseas locations—magnifying the importance of power projection. Further, technically advanced adversaries will challenge the United States in space and cyberspace, making power projection a necessity to protect national interests. To be effective in the increased threat environment of 2030, the Air Force must integrate air, space, and cyber capabilities—focusing on strategic effects. Integrating these capabilities across domains will become a key enabler and force multiplier over the coming decades. Domain superiority is not guaranteed in the future. As the technological gap between the United States and other actors narrows, adversaries will contest the Air Force's preeminence in air, space, and cyberspace. Today's freedom of action in space and cyberspace will encounter direct threats. Therefore, to gain superiority in either domain, the Air Force must develop resiliency in both space and cyber systems and thereby create an effective deterrent. Reducing the incentive for attack by negating gain is imperative. Further, creating systems that can continue effective operations following attack will be essential in the increasingly complex battlespace of 2030. Air diplomacy—the employment of power through capabilities such as humanitarian assistance, deterrence, and power projection—takes advantage of airpower's inherent soft-power capabilities. Today the service often conducts these missions through ad hoc means. However, the Air Force must develop a deliberate and comprehensive air diplomacy strategy to improve the effectiveness of these efforts; moreover, it should address specific ends, ways, and means of supporting the combatant commander's theater plan. The service also must commit to organizing, training, and equipping for the air diplomacy mission to meet combatant commanders' requirements. In coming years the nation will look to the Air Force to provide power projection; freedom of action in air, space, and cyber; global situational awareness; air diplomacy; and MSCA to meet the strategic challenges Americans will soon face. Maintaining these capabilities will require continuous attention and investment, or they will erode. The United States is in danger of being overtaken by emerging adversaries in a number of areas the nation has long taken for granted. Focusing on these five capabilities will assure the Air Force contribution to national security as the nation moves toward 2030.

Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence

Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence
Author: Naval Studies Board
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 244
Release: 1997-04-16
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0309553237

Deterrence as a strategic concept evolved during the Cold War. During that period, deterrence strategy was aimed mainly at preventing aggression against the United States and its close allies by the hostile Communist power centers--the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and its allies, Communist China and North Korea. In particular, the strategy was devised to prevent aggression involving nuclear attack by the USSR or China. Since the end of the Cold War, the risk of war among the major powers has subsided to the lowest point in modern history. Still, the changing nature of the threats to American and allied security interests has stimulated a considerable broadening of the deterrence concept. Post-Cold War Conflict Deterrence examines the meaning of deterrence in this new environment and identifies key elements of a post-Cold War deterrence strategy and the critical issues in devising such a strategy. It further examines the significance of these findings for the U.S. Navy and Marine Corps. Quantitative and qualitative measures to support judgments about the potential success or failure of deterrence are identified. Such measures will bear on the suitability of the naval forces to meet the deterrence objectives. The capabilities of U.S. naval forces that especially bear on the deterrence objectives also are examined. Finally, the book examines the utility of models, games, and simulations as decision aids in improving the naval forces' understanding of situations in which deterrence must be used and in improving the potential success of deterrence actions.

Strategic Appraisal

Strategic Appraisal
Author: Zalmay Khalilzad
Publisher: Rand Corporation
Total Pages: 510
Release: 2002-07-31
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 0833032461

Change--in international relations, in technology, and in society as a whole--has become the idiom of our age. One example of these changes has been an increasing recognition of the value of air and space assets for handling nearly every contingency from disaster relief to war and, onsequently, increasing demand for such assets. These developments have created both challenges and opportunities for the U.S. Air Force. This, the fourth volume in the Strategic Appraisal series, draws on the expertise of researchers from across RAND to explore both the challenges and opportunities that the U.S. Air Force faces as it strives to support the nation's interests in a challenging technological and security environment.Contributors examine the changing roles of air and space forces in U.S.national security strategy, the implications of new systems and technologiesfor military operations, and the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. securitystrategy. Contributors also discuss the status of major modernizationefforts within the Air Force, and the bill of health of the Air Force, asmeasured by its readiness to undertake its missions both today and in thefuture.

Thinking about Deterrence

Thinking about Deterrence
Author: Air Univeristy Press
Publisher: Military Bookshop
Total Pages: 344
Release: 2014-09-01
Genre: Political Science
ISBN: 9781782667100

With many scholars and analysts questioning the relevance of deterrence as a valid strategic concept, this volume moves beyond Cold War nuclear deterrence to show the many ways in which deterrence is applicable to contemporary security. It examines the possibility of applying deterrence theory and practice to space, to cyberspace, and against non-state actors. It also examines the role of nuclear deterrence in the twenty-first century and reaches surprising conclusions.