Unemployment And Aggregate Demand
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Author | : Sangyup Choi |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 26 |
Release | : 2015-02-23 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498356303 |
We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
Author | : Andreas Pollak |
Publisher | : Mohr Siebeck |
Total Pages | : 204 |
Release | : 2007 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9783161493041 |
Designing a good unemployment insurance scheme is a delicate matter. In a system with no or little insurance, households may be subject to a high income risk, whereas excessively generous unemployment insurance systems are known to lead to high unemployment rates and are costly both from a fiscal perspective and for society as a whole. Andreas Pollak investigates what an optimal unemployment insurance system would look like, i.e. a system that constitutes the best possible compromise between income security and incentives to work. Using theoretical economic models and complex numerical simulations, he studies the effects of benefit levels and payment durations on unemployment and welfare. As the models allow for considerable heterogeneity of households, including a history-dependent labor productivity, it is possible to analyze how certain policies affect individuals in a specific age, wealth or skill group. The most important aspect of an unemployment insurance system turns out to be the benefits paid to the long-term unemployed. If this parameter is chosen too high, a large number of households may get caught in a long spell of unemployment with little chance of finding work again. Based on the predictions in these models, the so-called "Hartz IV" labor market reform recently adopted in Germany should have highly favorable effects on the unemployment rates and welfare in the long run.
Author | : OECD |
Publisher | : OECD Publishing |
Total Pages | : 130 |
Release | : 2003-03-20 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 9264177442 |
This handbook is a practical manual on the design and implementation of business tendency surveys, which ask company managers about the current situation of their business and about their plans and expectations for the future.
Author | : Callum Jones |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 51 |
Release | : 2018-08-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484374983 |
We evaluate and partially challenge the ‘household leverage’ view of the Great Recession. In the data, employment and consumption declined more in states where household debt declined more. We study a model where liquidity constraints amplify the response of consumption and employment to changes in debt. We estimate the model with Bayesian methods combining state and aggregate data. Changes in household credit limits explain 40 percent of the differential rise and fall of employment across states, but a small fraction of the aggregate employment decline in 2008-2010. Nevertheless, since household deleveraging was gradual, credit shocks greatly slowed the recovery.
Author | : Zidong An |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 22 |
Release | : 2021-11-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1616356049 |
The negative and stable relationship between an economy’s aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and developing economies. Second, youth’s unemployment is twice as sensitive as that of adults’. Third, women’s unemployment is significantly less sensitive to demand than men’s in advanced economies. These findings point to the highly unequal impacts of the business cycle across worker and economy groups.
Author | : P. N. Junankar |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 40 |
Release | : 1996 |
Genre | : Unemployment |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Steven A. Greenlaw |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2017 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781947172432 |
Principles of Macroeconomics for AP® Courses 2e covers the scope and sequence requirements for an Advanced Placement® macroeconomics course and is listed on the College Board's AP® example textbook list. The second edition includes many current examples and recent data from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), which are presented in a politically equitable way. The outcome is a balanced approach to the theory and application of economics concepts. The second edition was developed with significant feedback from current users. In nearly all chapters, it follows the same basic structure of the first edition. General descriptions of the edits are provided in the preface, and a chapter-by-chapter transition guide is available for instructors.
Author | : Klaus-Peter Hellwig |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 35 |
Release | : 2021-03-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513572687 |
I use three decades of county-level data to estimate the effects of federal unemployment benefit extensions on economic activity. To overcome the reverse causality coming from the fact that benefit extensions are a function of state unemployment rates, I only use the within-state variation in outcomes to identify treatment effects. Identification rests on a differences-in-differences approach which exploits heterogeneity in county exposure to policy changes. To distinguish demand and supply-side channels, I estimate the model separately for tradable and non-tradable sectors. Finally I use benefit extensions as an instrument to estimate local fiscal multipliers of unemployment benefit transfers. I find (i) that the overall impact of benefit extensions on activity is positive, pointing to strong demand effects; (ii) that, even in tradable sectors, there are no negative supply-side effects from work disincentives; and (iii) a fiscal multiplier estimate of 1.92, similar to estimates in the literature for other types of spending.
Author | : Dan Richards |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 410 |
Release | : 2016-07-07 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1119184444 |
The fast and easy way to make macroeconomics manageable Macroeconomics is kind of a big deal. Without it, we wouldn't have the ability to study the economy as a whole—which is something that affects almost every aspect of your life, whether you realize it or not. From your employment status to how much you earn and pay in taxes, macroeconomics really matters. Breaking down this complicated and fascinating topic into manageable pieces, Macroeconomics For Dummies gives you fast and easy access to a subject that has a tendency to stump the masses. With the help of this plain-English guide, you'll quickly find out how to gather data about economies to inform hypotheses on everything from the impact of cutting government spending to the underlying causes of recessions and high inflation. Analyze business cycles for overall economic health Study economic indicators such as unemployment Understand financial trends on the international market Score higher in your macroeconomics class Filled with step-by-step instruction and enlightening real-world examples, this is the only book you need to slay the beast and make macroeconomics your minion!
Author | : Claire Harasty |
Publisher | : International Labour Organization |
Total Pages | : 128 |
Release | : 2003 |
Genre | : Law |
ISBN | : 9221133605 |
Incorporating the most recent data available for 2002, this report analyses current labour market trends and examines the impact of the global economic downturn and post 11 September developments upon different world regions. Covering Latin America and the Caribbean, East Asia, South East Asia, the Middle East and North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, the transition economies and industrial countries, it focuses on the distinct labour market characteristics and challenges faced by each region and economic group. It also traces factors contributing to the global employment decline, such as the increase in informal sector employment, the decrease in employment in information and communication technology, as well as extensive jobs losses in the travel and tourism industries and the export and labour-intensive manufacturing sectors.