Understanding Export Diversification Key Drivers And Policy Implications
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Author | : Rahul Giri |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 29 |
Release | : 2019-05-10 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498313086 |
We identify key factors, from large set of potential determinants, that explain the variation in export diversification across countries and over time using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), which addresses model uncertainty and ranks factors in order of importance vis-a-vis their explanatory power. Our analysis suggests, in order to diversify, policy makers should prioritize human capital accumulation and reduce barriers to trade. Other policy areas include improving quality of institutions and developing the financial sector. For commodity exporters reducing barriers to trade is the most important driver of diversification, followed by improving education outcomes at the secondary level and financial sector development.
Author | : Rahul Giri |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 29 |
Release | : 2019-05-14 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1498315453 |
We identify key factors, from large set of potential determinants, that explain the variation in export diversification across countries and over time using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), which addresses model uncertainty and ranks factors in order of importance vis-a-vis their explanatory power. Our analysis suggests, in order to diversify, policy makers should prioritize human capital accumulation and reduce barriers to trade. Other policy areas include improving quality of institutions and developing the financial sector. For commodity exporters reducing barriers to trade is the most important driver of diversification, followed by improving education outcomes at the secondary level and financial sector development.
Author | : Mr. Gonzalo Salinas |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 30 |
Release | : 2021-05-27 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513573373 |
Largely because of its vast copper reserves, Chile’s exports are highly concentrated on this low complexity product and this is often cited as a major drawback of its economic policy framework. However, its exogenous copper abundance conceals the country’s success in developing non-mineral and complex exports. This achievement is remarkable considering its remoteness from the large international economic centers, which limits its integration to global value chains. As suggested in this paper, this accomplishment reflects Chile’s strength in policy areas that foster non-mineral exports (including complex exports), making the country a role model in export diversification and complexity policies among emerging market countries.
Author | : Arnold McIntyre |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 23 |
Release | : 2018-04-11 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484351010 |
The paper considers concepts of economic diversification with respect to exports (including service sectors) for small states. We assessed the economic performance of different groups of 34 small states over the period of 1990-2015 and found those more diversified experienced lower output volatility and higher average growth than most other small states. Our findings are consistent with conventional economic theories but we found that export diversification has a more significant impact on reducing output volatility than improving long run growth in small states. Diversification requires fundamental changes and should be contemplated in the context of a cohesive development strategy.
Author | : Daniel Lederman |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 153 |
Release | : 2012-06-18 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0821384910 |
Does what economies export matter for development? If so, can industrial policies improve on the export basket generated by the market? This book approaches these questions from a variety of conceptual and policy viewpoints. Reviewing the theoretical arguments in favor of industrial policies, the authors first ask whether existing indicators allow policy makers to identify growth-promoting sectors with confidence. To this end, they assess, and ultimately cast doubt upon, the reliability of many popular indicators advocated by proponents of industrial policy. Second, and central to their critique, the authors document extraordinary differences in the performance of countries exporting seemingly identical products, be they natural resources or 'high-tech' goods. Further, they argue that globalization has so fragmented the production process that even talking about exported goods as opposed to tasks may be misleading. Reviewing evidence from history and from around the world, the authors conclude that policy makers should focus less on what is produced, and more on how it is produced. They analyze alternative approaches to picking winners but conclude by favoring 'horizontal-ish' policies--for instance, those that build human capital or foment innovation in existing and future products—that only incidentally favor some sectors over others.
Author | : Rasmané Ouedraogo |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 21 |
Release | : 2023-02-27 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
This selected issue paper investigates the drivers of diversification and explores the potential for fostering diversification in Niger with a focus on horizontal policies. The empirical results from panel regressions indicate that reforms to enhance human capital and the quality of infrastructure, to promote digitalization, to remove barriers to trade and improve governance are likely to yield the largest gains in terms of diversification for Niger.
Author | : Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka |
Publisher | : Routledge |
Total Pages | : 152 |
Release | : 2022-04-14 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1000573435 |
Economic diversification entails a shift away from a single income source toward multiple income sources from an increasing spectrum of sectors and markets. A persistent concern for some Asian and African economies is their reliance on commodity exports and how they are exposed to the risk of export volatility and income instability. The Covid-19 pandemic and previous oil crashes have demonstrated the adverse impact on such economies. This book provides a systemic analysis of sustainable economic development through economic diversification. The book analyzes diversification and development experiences from comparative perspectives of Asia and Africa. It also investigates determinants of export diversification differentiated by commodities-dependence versus manufactured products and looks at the roles of various institutions and governance of institutions in export diversification. This book will provide policy insights into how different degrees of specialisation in exports across countries have affected outcomes in terms of living standards, economic growth and employment.
Author | : Weicheng Lian |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 49 |
Release | : 2021-07-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513584790 |
While South Asia has gone a long way in diversifying their economies, there is substantial scope to do more. Some countries – India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka – can build on their existing production capabilities; others – Bangladesh, Bhutan, and the Maldives – would need to undertake a more concerted push. We identify key policies from a large set of potential determinants that explain the variation in export diversification and complexity across 189 countries from 1962 to 2018. Our analysis suggests that South Asia needs to invest in infrastructure, education, and R&D, facilitate bank credit to productive companies, and open to trade in order to diversify and move up the value chains. Given the COVID-19 pandemic, investing in digital technologies as part of the infrastructure push and improving education are of even greater importance to facilitate the ability to work remotely and assist resource reallocation away from the less viable sectors.
Author | : John Baffes |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 311 |
Release | : 2022-12-07 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1464819122 |
Commodity markets are integral to the global economy. Understanding what drives developments of these markets is critical to the design of policy frameworks that facilitate the economic objectives of sustainable growth, inflation stability, poverty reduction, food security, and the mitigation of climate change. This study is the first comprehensive analysis examining market and policy developments for all commodity groups, including energy, metals, and agriculture, over the past century. It finds that, while the quantity of commodities consumed has risen enormously, driven by population and income growth, the relative importance of commodities has shifted over time, as technological innovation created new uses for some materials and facilitated substitution among commodities. The study also shows that commodity markets are heterogeneous in terms of their drivers, price behavior, and macroeconomic impact on emerging markets and developing economies, and that the relationship between economic growth and commodity demand varies widely across countries, depending on their stage of economic development. Policy frameworks that enable countercyclical macroeconomic responses have become increasingly common—and beneficial. Other policy tools have had mixed outcomes. Discussions about commodity-exporting emerging markets are often based on ideas without empirical or analytical support. This book is a great contribution to improve our understanding of those economies, based on rigorous research. It provides robust empirical evidence including a long-term perspective on commodity prices. It also contains very thoughtful policy analysis, with implications for resilience, macroeconomic policies, and development strategies. It will be a key reference for scholars as well as policy makers. José De Gregorio Dean of the School of Economics and Business Universidad de Chile Former Minister of Economy, Mining and Energy and Former Governor of the Central Bank of Chile A sound understanding of commodity markets is more essential than ever in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy commodities. This volume offers an excellent, comprehensive, and very timely analysis of the wide range of factors that affect commodity markets. It carefully surveys historical and future trends in commodity supply, demand, and prices, and offers detailed policy proposals to avoid the havoc that turbulent commodity markets can cause on the economies of commodity exporters and importers. Rick Van der Ploeg Research Director of Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource-Rich Economies University of Oxford
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 38 |
Release | : 2019-09-09 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513513486 |
This Selected Issues paper explores policies to drive diversification for Saudi Arabia. Diversification is needed to create jobs for Saudis and to mitigate the impact of uncertainty in oil markets. Although the business climate should be improved, and remaining infrastructure gaps addressed, reforms need to go beyond these areas. Diversification in Saudi Arabia that creates jobs for nationals could be held back by the effects of relatively high wages and their impact on cost competitiveness. Creative solutions are needed to address the impact of high government wages and employment on competitiveness. Industrial policy could help overcome the incentives that encourage companies to focus on the nontradable sector, but should be handled carefully, keeping lessons from other countries’ experiences in mind. Export orientation and competition are crucial mechanisms to ensure discipline. Strengthening human capital to raise productivity and provide workers with the skills needed in the private sector will be essential to success.