Understanding DSGE Filters in Forecasting and Policy Analysis

Understanding DSGE Filters in Forecasting and Policy Analysis
Author: Michal Andrle
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 23
Release: 2013-05-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484341619

This paper introduces methods that allow analysts to (i) decompose the estimates of unobserved quantities into observed data, (ii) to better understand revision properties of the model, and (iii) to impose subjective prior constraints on path estimates of unobserved shocks in structural economic models. For instance, a decomposition of the flexible-price output gap, or a technology shock, into contributions of output, inflation, interest rates, and other observed variables' contribution is feasible. The intuitive nature and analytical clarity of the suggested procedures are appealing for policy-related and forecasting models.

Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models

Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models
Author: Edward P. Herbst
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 295
Release: 2015-12-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691161089

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as well as forecasting and policy analysis at central banks. This book introduces readers to state-of-the-art computational techniques used in the Bayesian analysis of DSGE models. The book covers Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for linearized DSGE models, novel sequential Monte Carlo methods that can be used for parameter inference, and the estimation of nonlinear DSGE models based on particle filter approximations of the likelihood function. The theoretical foundations of the algorithms are discussed in depth, and detailed empirical applications and numerical illustrations are provided. The book also gives invaluable advice on how to tailor these algorithms to specific applications and assess the accuracy and reliability of the computations. Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models is essential reading for graduate students, academic researchers, and practitioners at policy institutions.

Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling

Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling
Author: Peter B. Dixon
Publisher: Newnes
Total Pages: 1143
Release: 2013-11-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0444536353

In this collection of 17 articles, top scholars synthesize and analyze scholarship on this widely used tool of policy analysis, setting forth its accomplishments, difficulties, and means of implementation. Though CGE modeling does not play a prominent role in top US graduate schools, it is employed universally in the development of economic policy. This collection is particularly important because it presents a history of modeling applications and examines competing points of view. - Presents coherent summaries of CGE theories that inform major model types - Covers the construction of CGE databases, model solving, and computer-assisted interpretation of results - Shows how CGE modeling has made a contribution to economic policy

What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables

What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables
Author: Michal Andrle
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 45
Release: 2013-05-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484360516

This paper discusses several popular methods to estimate the ‘output gap’. It provides a unified, natural concept for the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart of contributing factors, in the case of multi-variable methods, sharpens the intuition behind the estimates and ultimately shows ‘what is in your output gap.’ The paper demonstrates how to interpret effects of data revisions and new data releases for output gap estimates (news effects) and how to obtain more insight into real-time properties of estimators.

Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy

Advancing the Frontiers of Monetary Policy
Author: Tobias Adrian
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 297
Release: 2018-04-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484344480

Inflation-forecast targeting is state of the art for monetary policy. This book explores first principles, including managing short-term policy trade-offs. The book also outlines efficient operational procedures and reviews the experiences of Canada, the Czech Republic, and India. The analysis highlights the need for assertive policies and maximum transparency.

IMF Research Bulletin, September 2013

IMF Research Bulletin, September 2013
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 16
Release: 2013-09-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475558538

The Research Summaries in the September 2013 IMF Research Bulletin focus on “External Conditions and Debt Sustainability in Latin America” (Gustavo Adler and Sebastian Sosa) and “Monetary Policy Cyclicality in Emerging Markets” (Donal McGettigan, Kenji Moriyama, and Chad Steinberg). In the Q&A, Itai Aigur and Sunil Sharma discuss “Seven Questions on Macroprudential Policy Frameworks.” The Research Bulletin also includes an updated listing of recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore, as well as information on a forthcoming conference. The IMF Economic Review’s new Impact Factor is also highlighted.

Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods

Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods
Author: Eric Ghysels
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 617
Release: 2018
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0190622016

Economic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making in the public and private sectors. This book provides the necessary tools to solve real-world forecasting problems using time-series methods. It targets undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers in public and private institutions interested in applied economic forecasting.

Handbook of Macroeconomics

Handbook of Macroeconomics
Author: John B. Taylor
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 1376
Release: 2016-12-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0444594787

Handbook of Macroeconomics surveys all major advances in macroeconomic scholarship since the publication of Volume 1 (1999), carefully distinguishing between empirical, theoretical, methodological, and policy issues. It courageously examines why existing models failed during the financial crisis, and also addresses well-deserved criticism head on. With contributions from the world's chief macroeconomists, its reevaluation of macroeconomic scholarship and speculation on its future constitute an investment worth making. - Serves a double role as a textbook for macroeconomics courses and as a gateway for students to the latest research - Acts as a one-of-a-kind resource as no major collections of macroeconomic essays have been published in the last decade

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting

The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting
Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: OUP USA
Total Pages: 732
Release: 2011-07-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0195398645

Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.

A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Morocco

A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Morocco
Author: Daniel Baksa
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2021-07-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 151359298X

The paper describes a semistructural macrofiscal approach to simulating and forecasting macroeconomic policies. The model focuses on only a few variables that are consistent with the New Keynesian framework. Thanks to its simplicity, it facilitates an initial and intuitive understanding of monetary and fiscal policy transmission channels, and their main impact on economic activity. The model is adapted to Morocco and we demonstrate its application with an illustrative scenario of policy responses to a slower-than-expected recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, under different monetary policy and exchange rate regimes.