Unconventional Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates

Unconventional Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates
Author: Mr.Tao Wu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2014-10-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498317243

This paper examines the transmission mechanism through which unconventional monetary policy affects long-term interest rates. I construct a real-time measure summarizing market projections of the magnitude and duration of the Federal Reserve's Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP) program, and analyze the determination of term premiums and expectations of future short-term interest rates in a sample spanning more than two decades. Empirical findings suggest that the LSAP has effectively lowered the long-term Treasury bond yields, through both "signaling" and "portfolio balance" channels. On the other hand, the Fed's "forward guidance" also leads to gradual extension of market projections for the duration of the LSAP program, thereby enhancing the LSAP's effect to keep term premiums low. Estimation results also reveal a diminished effectiveness of the LSAP during QE III. Finally, model simulations underscore the importance of policy transparency in minimizing unnecessary market turbulence and ensuring a timely and smooth exit of the unconventional monetary policy stimulus.

Introduction to Central Banking

Introduction to Central Banking
Author: Ulrich Bindseil
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 128
Release: 2021-05-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030708845

This open access book gives a concise introduction to the practical implementation of monetary policy by modern central banks. It describes the conventional instruments used in advanced economies and the unconventional instruments that have been widely adopted since the financial crisis of 2007–2008. Illuminating the role of central banks in ensuring financial stability and as last resort lenders, it also offers an overview of the international monetary framework. A flow-of-funds framework is used throughout to capture this essential dimension in a consistent and unifying manner, providing a unique and accessible resource on central banking and monetary policy, and its integration with financial stability. Addressed to professionals as well as bachelors and masters students of economics, this book is suitable for a course on economic policy. Useful prerequisites include at least a general idea of the economic institutions of an economy, and knowledge of macroeconomics and monetary economics, but readers need not be familiar with any specific macroeconomic models.

Unconventional Monetary Policy in Practice. A Comparison of 'Quantitative Easing' in Japan and the USA

Unconventional Monetary Policy in Practice. A Comparison of 'Quantitative Easing' in Japan and the USA
Author: Matthias Reith
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
Total Pages: 111
Release: 2015-09-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 364047404X

Diploma Thesis from the year 2009 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 1, University of Vienna, language: English, abstract: In the current economic and financial crisis, many western central banks introduced “unconventional” monetary policy measures, commonly referred to as “Quantitative Easing (QE)”. However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) already applied QE between 2001 and 2006. This lead many commentators to make oversimplifying comparisons between the BoJ’s QE approach (2001-2006) and current implementations of QE by other central banks. In particular, this diploma thesis tries to examine the differences between BoJ-type QE and Fedtype QE. It turns out that both approaches differ fundamentally from each other on various grounds: The primary aim of QE in Japan was fighting deflation, whereas the American central bank addresses mostly strains in the banking system. Concerning the concrete measures, one can say that QE by the BoJ consisted to a good deal of active QE in terms of outright purchases of Japanese government securities (JGBs), whereas the Fed currently follows a somewhat broader approach: Since interbank markets are not functioning as desired, it tries to engage with as many market participants as direct as possible. Therefore the Fed has introduced a much broader range of new instruments than its Japanese counterpart did between 2001 and 2006. As a result, the Fed’s balance sheet expansion was considerably larger than the one in Japan.

Essays on Unconventional Monetary Policy

Essays on Unconventional Monetary Policy
Author: Cobus Cornelis Vermeulen
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

Following the Global Financial Crisis of 2007 { 2010, central banks around the world were forced into unprecedented policy interventions to stabilise asset markets and prevent the global nancial system from collapsing. Because interest rates around the world were at historical lows, \conventional" interest rate policy was not an option. Central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, resorted to \unconventional" monetary policies, rst to stabilise markets during the height of the crisis, and then to support the economic recovery thereafter. The distinguishing characteristic of these unconventional policies was that they involved direct intervention by central banks in long-term xed income markets, such as government bonds and agency debt. This thesis considers the theoretical channels through which central bank purchases of long-term securities could impact (i) bond yields, (ii) other domestic asset markets, and (iii) spillovers to foreign countries. The theory is then tested and evaluated against the empirical evidence. Based on the empirical results, a simple closed-economy DSGE model is constructed. The model captures and illustrates the transmission from central bank asset purchase shocks to the aggregate economy. The asset purchase shock is subsequently converted to an endogenous balance sheet rule. Simulations show that combining this unconventional (balance sheet) rule with a conventional (short-term interest rate) rule yields a superior policy mix than under the conventional rule alone. Finally, the closed-economy model is extended to an open-economy framework, within which a similar balance sheet rule is evaluated in the context of international capital ows. Again, the combination of the balance sheet and interest rate policy is found to yield a superior outcome than interest rate policy alone. The contribution of this thesis is twofold. It contributes to the understanding of the impact of central bank interventions in xed income markets on long-term yields, as well as the externalities and spillovers to other asset markets. Furthermore, this thesis develops a robust and versatile framework, which is intuitively easy to grasp, within which various aspects of central bank balance sheet policy could be investigated. This thesis' main conclusion is that unconventional monetary policy could complement conventional policy under normal market conditions, and that unconventional policy need not be restricted to crisis times only.

Unconventional Monetary Policies - Recent Experiences and Prospects

Unconventional Monetary Policies - Recent Experiences and Prospects
Author: International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2013-04-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498341985

This paper addresses three questions about unconventional monetary policies. First, what policies were tried, and with what objectives? Second, were policies effective? And third, what role might these policies continue to play in the future?

Unconventional Monetary Policy and Financial Stability

Unconventional Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
Author: Alexis Stenfors
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 217
Release: 2020-07-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0429629613

Since the financial crisis of 2008-09, central bankers around the world have been forced to abandon conventional monetary policy tools in favour of unconventional policies such as quantitative easing, forward guidance, lowering the interest rate paid on bank reserves into negative territory, and pushing up prices of government bonds. Having faced a crisis in its banking sector nearly a decade earlier, Japan was a pioneer in the use of many of these tools. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Financial Stability critically assesses the measures used by Japan and examines what they have meant for the theory and practice of economic policy. The book shows how in practice unconventional monetary policy has worked through its impact on the financial markets. The text aims to generate an understanding of why such measures were introduced and how the Japanese system has subsequently changed regarding aspects such as governance and corporate balance sheets. It provides a comprehensive study of developments in Japanese money markets with the intent to understand the impact of policy on the debt structures that appear to have caused Japan’s deflation. The topics covered range from central bank communication and policymaking to international financial markets and bank balance sheets. This text is of great interest to students and scholars of banking, international finance, financial markets, political economy, and the Japanese economy.

Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional?

Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional?
Author: Mr.Dominic Quint
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 44
Release: 2017-03-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 147559139X

The large recession that followed the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 triggered unprecedented monetary policy easing around the world. Most central banks in advanced economies deployed new instruments to affect credit conditions and to provide liquidity at a large scale after shortterm policy rates reached their effective lower bound. In this paper, we study if this new set of tools, commonly labeled as unconventional monetary policies (UMP), should still be used when economic conditions and interest rates normalize. In particular, we study the optimality of asset purchase programs by using an estimated non-linear DSGE model with a banking sector and long-term private and public debt for the United States. We find that the benefits of using such UMP in normal times are substantial, equivalent to 1.45 percent of consumption. However, the benefits from using UMP are shock-dependent and mostly arise when the economy is hit by financial shocks. When more traditional business cycle shocks (such as supply and demand shocks) hit the economy, the benefits of using UMP are negligible or zero.

Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)

Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)
Author: Andreas Jobst
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 48
Release: 2016-08-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475524471

More than two years ago the European Central Bank (ECB) adopted a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) to achieve its price stability objective. Negative interest rates have so far supported easier financial conditions and contributed to a modest expansion in credit, demonstrating that the zero lower bound is less binding than previously thought. However, interest rate cuts also weigh on bank profitability. Substantial rate cuts may at some point outweigh the benefits from higher asset values and stronger aggregate demand. Further monetary accommodation may need to rely more on credit easing and an expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet rather than substantial additional reductions in the policy rate.

Lower for Longer

Lower for Longer
Author: Mr.Andrea Pescatori
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 22
Release: 2015-06-25
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513582828

We use a semi structural model to estimate neutral rates in the United States. Our Bayesian estimation incorporates prior information on the output gap and potential output (based on a production function approach) and accounts for unconventional monetary policies at the ZLB by using estimates of “shadow” policy rates. We find that our approach provides more plausible results than standard maximum likelihood estimates for the unobserved variables in the model. Results show a significant trend decline in the neutral real rate over time, driven only in part by a decline in potential growth whereas other factors (including excess global savings) matter. Neutral rates likely turned negative during the Global Financial Crisis and are expected to increase only gradually looking forward.