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| Author | : Ronald A. Beghetto |
| Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
| Total Pages | : 191 |
| Release | : 2023-11-02 |
| Genre | : Education |
| ISBN | : 1316512967 |
Provides insights, scenarios, and applications to help students embrace uncertainty and become creative authors of their own futures.
| Author | : Limor Samimian-Darash |
| Publisher | : Cornell University Press |
| Total Pages | : 188 |
| Release | : 2022-04-15 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 1501762478 |
In Uncertainty by Design Limor Samimian-Darash presents cases of the use of scenario technology in the fields of security and emergency preparedness, energy, and health by analyzing scenario narratives and practices at the National Emergency Management Authority in Israel, the World Health Organization's Regional Office for Europe, and the World Energy Council. Humankind has long struggled with the uncertainty of the future, with how to foresee the future, imagine alternatives, or prepare for and guard against undesirable eventualities. Scenario—or scenario planning—emerged in recent decades to become a widespread means through which states, large corporations, and local organizations imagine and prepare for the future. The scenario technology cases examined in Uncertainty by Design provide a useful lens through which to view contemporary efforts to engage in an overall journey of discovering the future, along with the modality of governing involved in these endeavors to face future uncertainties. Collectively, they enable us to understand in depth how scenarios express a new governing modality.
| Author | : Greg Costikyan |
| Publisher | : MIT Press |
| Total Pages | : 150 |
| Release | : 2013 |
| Genre | : Computers |
| ISBN | : 0262018969 |
How uncertainty in games -- from Super Mario Bros. to Rock/Paper/Scissors -- engages players and shapes play experiences.
| Author | : Limor Samimian-Darash |
| Publisher | : Cornell University Press |
| Total Pages | : 204 |
| Release | : 2022-04-15 |
| Genre | : Social Science |
| ISBN | : 1501762486 |
In Uncertainty by Design Limor Samimian-Darash presents cases of the use of scenario technology in the fields of security and emergency preparedness, energy, and health by analyzing scenario narratives and practices at the National Emergency Management Authority in Israel, the World Health Organization's Regional Office for Europe, and the World Energy Council. Humankind has long struggled with the uncertainty of the future, with how to foresee the future, imagine alternatives, or prepare for and guard against undesirable eventualities. Scenario—or scenario planning—emerged in recent decades to become a widespread means through which states, large corporations, and local organizations imagine and prepare for the future. The scenario technology cases examined in Uncertainty by Design provide a useful lens through which to view contemporary efforts to engage in an overall journey of discovering the future, along with the modality of governing involved in these endeavors to face future uncertainties. Collectively, they enable us to understand in depth how scenarios express a new governing modality.
| Author | : Efstratios Nikolaidis |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 538 |
| Release | : 2011-02-18 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 0203834984 |
Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker‘s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a
| Author | : Yannis Tsompanakis |
| Publisher | : Taylor & Francis |
| Total Pages | : 669 |
| Release | : 2008-02-07 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 1134055064 |
Uncertainties play a dominant role in the design and optimization of structures and infrastructures. In optimum design of structural systems due to variations of the material, manufacturing variations, variations of the external loads and modelling uncertainty, the parameters of a structure, a structural system and its environment are not given, fixed coefficients, but random variables with a certain probability distribution. The increasing necessity to solve complex problems in Structural Optimization, Structural Reliability and Probabilistic Mechanics, requires the development of new ideas, innovative methods and numerical tools for providing accurate numerical solutions in affordable computing times. This book presents the latest findings on structural optimization considering uncertainties. It contains selected contributions dealing with the use of probabilistic methods for the optimal design of different types of structures and various considerations of uncertainties. The first part is focused on reliability-based design optimization and the second part on robust design optimization. Comprising twenty-one, self-contained chapters by prominent authors in the field, it forms a complete collection of state-of-the-art theoretical advances and applications in the fields of structural optimization, structural reliability, and probabilistic computational mechanics. It is recommended to researchers, engineers, and students in civil, mechanical, naval and aerospace engineering and to professionals working on complicated costs-effective design problems.
| Author | : Efstratios Nikolaidis |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 538 |
| Release | : 2017-06-16 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 9781138115095 |
Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker¿s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a methodology to model uncertainty and make choices when we have limited information. This methodology must use all available information and rely only on assumptions that are supported by evidence. This book explains theories and tools to represent uncertainty using both data and expert judgment. It teaches the reader how to make design or business decisions when there is limited information with these tools. Readers will learn a structured, risk-based approach, which is based on common sense principles, for design and business decisions. These decisions are consistent with the decision-maker¿s risk attitude. The book is exceptionally suited as educational material because it uses everyday language and real-life examples to elucidate concepts. It demonstrates how these concepts touch our lives through many practical examples, questions and exercises. These are designed to help students learn that first they should understand a problem and then establish a strategy for solving it, instead of using trial-and-error approaches. This volume is intended for undergraduate and graduate courses in mechanical, civil, industrial, aerospace, and ocean engineering and for researchers and professionals in these disciplines. It will also benefit managers and students in business administration who want to make good decisions with limited information.
| Author | : Debiao Meng |
| Publisher | : CRC Press |
| Total Pages | : 349 |
| Release | : 2024-09-02 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 1040113516 |
In the realm of engineering structures design, the inevitability of uncertainties poses a significant challenge. Uncertainty-Based Multidisciplinary Design and Optimization (UBMDO) stands out for its dual ability to precisely quantify the impact of uncertain variables and harness the potential of multidisciplinary design and optimization, thereby attracting considerable attention. From basic theory to advanced applications, this book helps readers achieve more efficient and reliable design optimization in complex systems through rich case studies and practical technical guidance. The book systematically expounds the fundamental theories and methods of UBMDO, encompassing crucial techniques such as uncertainty modeling, sensitivity analysis, approximate modeling, and uncertainty-based optimization. It also introduces various uncertainty analysis methods, such as stochastic, non-probabilistic, and hybrid approaches, aiding readers in comprehending and managing uncertainty within systems. Through diverse practical engineering cases in fields like machinery, aerospace, and energy, it illustrates the specific application and implementation process of the UBMDO method. Rich graphics, algorithms, and simulation results augment the practicality and applicability of the theoretical knowledge. Furthermore, it explores in depth the future development trends and challenges of UBMDO, sparking innovative thinking and research interests among readers in this field. Multidisciplinary Design Optimization of Complex Structures Under Uncertainty caters to a diverse audience: Engineers specializing in multidisciplinary design optimization are given the tools to master uncertainty management, and researchers in related fields will gain important theoretical insights and practical guidance in uncertainty analysis. Additionally, scholars and educators can utilize the book as a comprehensive resource for advanced courses, enabling students to grasp the latest UBMDO applications. Decision makers and managers handling complex systems can extract methods from the book, facilitating improved risk assessment, and strategic development through uncertainty-based optimization.
| Author | : Jaroslaw Sobieszczanski-Sobieski |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 412 |
| Release | : 2015-11-06 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 1118897080 |
Multidisciplinary Design Optimization supported by Knowledge Based Engineering supports engineers confronting this daunting and new design paradigm. It describes methodology for conducting a system design in a systematic and rigorous manner that supports human creativity to optimize the design objective(s) subject to constraints and uncertainties. The material presented builds on decades of experience in Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) methods, progress in concurrent computing, and Knowledge Based Engineering (KBE) tools. Key features: Comprehensively covers MDO and is the only book to directly link this with KBE methods Provides a pathway through basic optimization methods to MDO methods Directly links design optimization methods to the massively concurrent computing technology Emphasizes real world engineering design practice in the application of optimization methods Multidisciplinary Design Optimization supported by Knowledge Based Engineering is a one-stop-shop guide to the state-of-the-art tools in the MDO and KBE disciplines for systems design engineers and managers. Graduate or post-graduate students can use it to support their design courses, and researchers or developers of computer-aided design methods will find it useful as a wide-ranging reference.
| Author | : Binbin Pan |
| Publisher | : Springer Nature |
| Total Pages | : 302 |
| Release | : 2020-08-28 |
| Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
| ISBN | : 9811564558 |
This book investigates Reliability-based Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (RBMDO) theory and its application in the design of deep manned submersibles (DMSs). Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) is an effective design method for large engineering systems like aircraft, warships, and satellites, which require designers and engineers from various disciplines to cooperate with each other. MDO can be used to handle the conflicts that arise between these disciplines, and focuses on the optimal design of the system as a whole. However, it can also push designs to the brink of failure. In order to keep the system balanced, Reliability-based Design (RBD) must be incorporated into MDO. Consequently, new algorithms and methods have to be developed for RBMDO theory. This book provides an essential overview of MDO, RBD, and RBMDO and subsequently introduces key algorithms and methods by means of case analyses. In closing, it introduces readers to the design of DMSs and applies RBMDO methods to the design of the manned hull and the general concept design. The book is intended for all students and researchers who are interested in system design theory, and for engineers working on large, complex engineering systems.
