Uncertainty Quantification

Uncertainty Quantification
Author: Christian Soize
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 344
Release: 2017-04-24
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 3319543393

This book presents the fundamental notions and advanced mathematical tools in the stochastic modeling of uncertainties and their quantification for large-scale computational models in sciences and engineering. In particular, it focuses in parametric uncertainties, and non-parametric uncertainties with applications from the structural dynamics and vibroacoustics of complex mechanical systems, from micromechanics and multiscale mechanics of heterogeneous materials. Resulting from a course developed by the author, the book begins with a description of the fundamental mathematical tools of probability and statistics that are directly useful for uncertainty quantification. It proceeds with a well carried out description of some basic and advanced methods for constructing stochastic models of uncertainties, paying particular attention to the problem of calibrating and identifying a stochastic model of uncertainty when experimental data is available. This book is intended to be a graduate-level textbook for students as well as professionals interested in the theory, computation, and applications of risk and prediction in science and engineering fields.

Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling

Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling
Author: Yan Wang
Publisher: Woodhead Publishing Limited
Total Pages: 604
Release: 2020-03-12
Genre: Materials science
ISBN: 0081029411

Uncertainty Quantification in Multiscale Materials Modeling provides a complete overview of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational materials science. It provides practical tools and methods along with examples of their application to problems in materials modeling. UQ methods are applied to various multiscale models ranging from the nanoscale to macroscale. This book presents a thorough synthesis of the state-of-the-art in UQ methods for materials modeling, including Bayesian inference, surrogate modeling, random fields, interval analysis, and sensitivity analysis, providing insight into the unique characteristics of models framed at each scale, as well as common issues in modeling across scales.

Spectral Methods for Uncertainty Quantification

Spectral Methods for Uncertainty Quantification
Author: Olivier Le Maitre
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 542
Release: 2010-03-11
Genre: Science
ISBN: 9048135206

This book deals with the application of spectral methods to problems of uncertainty propagation and quanti?cation in model-based computations. It speci?cally focuses on computational and algorithmic features of these methods which are most useful in dealing with models based on partial differential equations, with special att- tion to models arising in simulations of ?uid ?ows. Implementations are illustrated through applications to elementary problems, as well as more elaborate examples selected from the authors’ interests in incompressible vortex-dominated ?ows and compressible ?ows at low Mach numbers. Spectral stochastic methods are probabilistic in nature, and are consequently rooted in the rich mathematical foundation associated with probability and measure spaces. Despite the authors’ fascination with this foundation, the discussion only - ludes to those theoretical aspects needed to set the stage for subsequent applications. The book is authored by practitioners, and is primarily intended for researchers or graduate students in computational mathematics, physics, or ?uid dynamics. The book assumes familiarity with elementary methods for the numerical solution of time-dependent, partial differential equations; prior experience with spectral me- ods is naturally helpful though not essential. Full appreciation of elaborate examples in computational ?uid dynamics (CFD) would require familiarity with key, and in some cases delicate, features of the associated numerical methods. Besides these shortcomings, our aim is to treat algorithmic and computational aspects of spectral stochastic methods with details suf?cient to address and reconstruct all but those highly elaborate examples.

Handbook of Uncertainty Quantification

Handbook of Uncertainty Quantification
Author: Roger Ghanem
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2016-05-08
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 9783319123844

The topic of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) has witnessed massive developments in response to the promise of achieving risk mitigation through scientific prediction. It has led to the integration of ideas from mathematics, statistics and engineering being used to lend credence to predictive assessments of risk but also to design actions (by engineers, scientists and investors) that are consistent with risk aversion. The objective of this Handbook is to facilitate the dissemination of the forefront of UQ ideas to their audiences. We recognize that these audiences are varied, with interests ranging from theory to application, and from research to development and even execution.

Uncertainty in Engineering

Uncertainty in Engineering
Author: Louis J. M. Aslett
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 148
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN: 3030836401

This open access book provides an introduction to uncertainty quantification in engineering. Starting with preliminaries on Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo methods, followed by material on imprecise probabilities, it then focuses on reliability theory and simulation methods for complex systems. The final two chapters discuss various aspects of aerospace engineering, considering stochastic model updating from an imprecise Bayesian perspective, and uncertainty quantification for aerospace flight modelling. Written by experts in the subject, and based on lectures given at the Second Training School of the European Research and Training Network UTOPIAE (Uncertainty Treatment and Optimization in Aerospace Engineering), which took place at Durham University (United Kingdom) from 2 to 6 July 2018, the book offers an essential resource for students as well as scientists and practitioners.

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3
Author: Robert Barthorpe
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 303
Release: 2018-07-30
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3319747932

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3: Proceedings of the 36th IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2018, the third volume of nine from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, including papers on: Uncertainty Quantification in Material Models Uncertainty Propagation in Structural Dynamics Practical Applications of MVUQ Advances in Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Model Updating Model Validation & Uncertainty Quantification: Industrial Applications Controlling Uncertainty Uncertainty in Early Stage Design Modeling of Musical Instruments Overview of Model Validation and Uncertainty

Uncertainty Quantification and Predictive Computational Science

Uncertainty Quantification and Predictive Computational Science
Author: Ryan G. McClarren
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 345
Release: 2018-11-23
Genre: Science
ISBN: 3319995251

This textbook teaches the essential background and skills for understanding and quantifying uncertainties in a computational simulation, and for predicting the behavior of a system under those uncertainties. It addresses a critical knowledge gap in the widespread adoption of simulation in high-consequence decision-making throughout the engineering and physical sciences. Constructing sophisticated techniques for prediction from basic building blocks, the book first reviews the fundamentals that underpin later topics of the book including probability, sampling, and Bayesian statistics. Part II focuses on applying Local Sensitivity Analysis to apportion uncertainty in the model outputs to sources of uncertainty in its inputs. Part III demonstrates techniques for quantifying the impact of parametric uncertainties on a problem, specifically how input uncertainties affect outputs. The final section covers techniques for applying uncertainty quantification to make predictions under uncertainty, including treatment of epistemic uncertainties. It presents the theory and practice of predicting the behavior of a system based on the aggregation of data from simulation, theory, and experiment. The text focuses on simulations based on the solution of systems of partial differential equations and includes in-depth coverage of Monte Carlo methods, basic design of computer experiments, as well as regularized statistical techniques. Code references, in python, appear throughout the text and online as executable code, enabling readers to perform the analysis under discussion. Worked examples from realistic, model problems help readers understand the mechanics of applying the methods. Each chapter ends with several assignable problems. Uncertainty Quantification and Predictive Computational Science fills the growing need for a classroom text for senior undergraduate and early-career graduate students in the engineering and physical sciences and supports independent study by researchers and professionals who must include uncertainty quantification and predictive science in the simulations they develop and/or perform.

Uncertainty Quantification for Integrated Circuits and Microelectrornechanical Systems

Uncertainty Quantification for Integrated Circuits and Microelectrornechanical Systems
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 168
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

Uncertainty quantification has become an important task and an emerging topic in many engineering fields. Uncertainties can be caused by many factors, including inaccurate component models, the stochastic nature of some design parameters, external environmental fluctuations (e.g., temperature variation), measurement noise, and so forth. In order to enable robust engineering design and optimal decision making, efficient stochastic solvers are highly desired to quantify the effects of uncertainties on the performance of complex engineering designs. Process variations have become increasingly important in the semiconductor industry due to the shrinking of micro- and nano-scale devices. Such uncertainties have led to remarkable performance variations at both circuit and system levels, and they cannot be ignored any more in the design of nano-scale integrated circuits and microelectromechanical systems (MEMS). In order to simulate the resulting stochastic behaviors, Monte Carlo techniques have been employed in SPICE-like simulators for decades, and they still remain the mainstream techniques in this community. Despite of their ease of implementation, Monte Carlo simulators are often too time-consuming due to the huge number of repeated simulations. This thesis reports the development of several stochastic spectral methods to accelerate the uncertainty quantification of integrated circuits and MEMS. Stochastic spectral methods have emerged as a promising alternative to Monte Carlo in many engineering applications, but their performance may degrade significantly as the parameter dimensionality increases. In this work, we develop several efficient stochastic simulation algorithms for various integrated circuits and MEMS designs, including problems with both low-dimensional and high-dimensional random parameters, as well as complex systems with hierarchical design structures. The first part of this thesis reports a novel stochastic-testing circuit/MEMS simulator as well as its advanced simulation engine for radio-frequency (RF) circuits. The proposed stochastic testing can be regarded as a hybrid variant of stochastic Galerkin and stochastic collocation: it is an intrusive simulator with decoupled computation and adaptive time stepping inside the solver. As a result, our simulator gains remarkable speedup over standard stochastic spectral methods and Monte Carlo in the DC, transient and AC simulation of various analog, digital and RF integrated circuits. An advanced uncertainty quantification algorithm for the periodic steady states (or limit cycles) of analog/RF circuits is further developed by combining stochastic testing and shooting Newton. Our simulator is verified by various integrated circuits, showing 102 x to 103 x speedup over Monte Carlo when a similar level of accuracy is required. The second part of this thesis presents two approaches for hierarchical uncertainty quantification. In hierarchical uncertainty quantification, we propose to employ stochastic spectral methods at different design hierarchies to simulate efficiently complex systems. The key idea is to ignore the multiple random parameters inside each subsystem and to treat each subsystem as a single random parameter. The main difficulty is to recompute the basis functions and quadrature rules that are required for the high-level uncertainty quantification, since the density function of an obtained low-level surrogate model is generally unknown. In order to address this issue, the first proposed algorithm computes new basis functions and quadrature points in the low-level (and typically high-dimensional) parameter space. This approach is very accurate; however it may suffer from the curse of dimensionality. In order to handle high-dimensional problems, a sparse stochastic testing simulator based on analysis of variance (ANOVA) is developed to accelerate the low-level simulation. At the high-level, a fast algorithm based on tensor decompositions is proposed to compute the basis functions and Gauss quadrature points. Our algorithm is verified by some MEMS/IC co-design examples with both low-dimensional and high-dimensional (up to 184) random parameters, showing about 102 x speedup over the state-of-the-art techniques. The second proposed hierarchical uncertainty quantification technique instead constructs a density function for each subsystem by some monotonic interpolation schemes. This approach is capable of handling general low-level possibly non-smooth surrogate models, and it allows computing new basis functions and quadrature points in an analytical way. The computational techniques developed in this thesis are based on stochastic differential algebraic equations, but the results can also be applied to many other engineering problems (e.g., silicon photonics, heat transfer problems, fluid dynamics, electromagnetics and power systems). There exist lots of research opportunities in this direction. Important open problems include how to solve high-dimensional problems (by both deterministic and randomized algorithms), how to deal with discontinuous response surfaces, how to handle correlated non-Gaussian random variables, how to couple noise and random parameters in uncertainty quantification, how to deal with correlated and time-dependent subsystems in hierarchical uncertainty quantification, and so forth.