HETEROGENEOUS UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION FOR RELIABILITY-BASED DESIGN OPTIMIZATION

HETEROGENEOUS UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION FOR RELIABILITY-BASED DESIGN OPTIMIZATION
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

Abstract : Uncertainty is inherent to real-world engineering systems, and reliability analysis aims at quantitatively measuring the probability that engineering systems successfully perform the intended functionalities under various sources of uncertainties. In this dissertation, heterogeneous uncertainties including input variation, data uncertainty, simulation model uncertainty, and time-dependent uncertainty have been taken into account in reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization (RBDO). The input variation inherently exists in practical engineering system and can be characterized by statistical modeling methods. Data uncertainty occurs when surrogate models are constructed to replace the simulations or experiments based on a set of training data, while simulation model uncertainty is introduced when high-fidelity simulation models are built through idealizations and simplifications of real physical processes or systems. Time-dependent uncertainty is involved when considering system or component aging and deterioration. Ensuring a high level of system reliability is one of the critical targets for engineering design, and this dissertation studies effective reliability analysis and reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) techniques to address the challenges of heterogeneous uncertainties. First of all, a novel reliability analysis method is proposed to deal with input randomness and time-dependent uncertainty. An ensemble learning framework is designed by integrating the Long short-term memory (LSTM) and feedforward neural network. Time-series data is utilized to construct a surrogate model for capturing the time-dependent responses with respect to input variables and stochastic processes. Moreover, a RBDO framework with Kriging technique is presented to address the time-dependent uncertainty in design optimization. Limit state functions are transformed into time-independent domain by converting the stochastic processes and time parameter to random variables, and Kriging surrogate models are then built and enhanced by a design-driven adaptive sampling scheme to accurately identify potential instantaneous failure events. Secondly, an equivalent reliability index (ERI) method is proposed for handling both input variations and surrogate model uncertainty in RBDO. To account for the surrogate model uncertainty, a Gaussian mixture model is constructed based on Gaussian process model predictions. To propagate both input variations and surrogate model uncertainty into reliability analysis, the statistical moments of the GMM is utilized for calculating an equivalent reliability index. The sensitivity of ERI with respect to design variables is analytically derived to facilitate the surrogate model-based product design process, lead to reliable optimum solutions. Thirdly, different effective methods are developed to handle the simulation model uncertainty as well as the surrogate model uncertainty. An active resource allocation framework is proposed for accurate reliability analysis using both simulation and experimental data, where a two-phase updating strategy is developed for reducing the computational costs. The framework is further extended for RBDO problems, where multi-fidelity design algorithm is presented to ensure accurate optimum designs while minimizing the computational costs. To account for both the bias terms and unknown parameters in the simulation model, Bayesian inference method is adopted for building a validated surrogate model, and a Bayesian-based mixture modeling method is developed to ensure reliable system designs with the consideration of heterogeneous uncertainties.

Structural Reliability

Structural Reliability
Author: Yan-Gang Zhao
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 660
Release: 2021-03-29
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 1119620813

STRUCTURAL RELIABILITY Discover a new and innovative approach to structural reliability from two authoritative and accomplished authors The subject of structural reliability, which deals with the problems of evaluating the safety and risk posed by a wide variety of structures, has grown rapidly over the last four decades. And while the First-Order Reliability Method is principally used by most textbooks on this subject, other approaches have identified some of the limitations of that method. In Structural Reliability: Approaches from Perspectives of Statistical Moments, accomplished engineers and authors Yan-Gang Zhao and Dr. Zhao-Hui Lu, deliver a concise and insightful exploration of an alternative and innovative approach to structural reliability. Called the Methods of Moment, the authors’ approach is based on the information of statistical moments of basic random variables and the performance function. The Methods of Moment approach facilitates ­structural reliability analysis and reliability-based design and can be extended to other engineering disciplines, yielding further insights into challenging problems involving ­randomness. Readers will also benefit from the inclusion of: A thorough introduction to the measures of structural safety, including uncertainties in structural design, deterministic measures of safety, and probabilistic measures of safety An exploration of the fundamentals of structural reliability theory, including the performance function and failure probability A practical discussion of moment evaluation for performance functions, including moment computation for both explicit and implicit performance functions A concise treatment of direct methods of moment, including the third- and fourth-moment reliability methods Perfect for professors, researchers, and graduate students in civil engineering, Structural Reliability: Approaches from Perspectives of Statistical Moments will also earn a place in the libraries of professionals and students working or studying in mechanical engineering, aerospace and aeronautics engineering, marine and offshore engineering, ship engineering, and applied mechanics.

Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling

Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling
Author: José Eduardo Souza De Cursi
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 472
Release: 2020-08-19
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3030536696

This proceedings book discusses state-of-the-art research on uncertainty quantification in mechanical engineering, including statistical data concerning the entries and parameters of a system to produce statistical data on the outputs of the system. It is based on papers presented at Uncertainties 2020, a workshop organized on behalf of the Scientific Committee on Uncertainty in Mechanics (Mécanique et Incertain) of the AFM (French Society of Mechanical Sciences), the Scientific Committee on Stochastic Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification of the ABCM (Brazilian Society of Mechanical Sciences) and the SBMAC (Brazilian Society of Applied Mathematics).

Practical Reliability and Uncertainty Quantification in Complex Systems

Practical Reliability and Uncertainty Quantification in Complex Systems
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 75
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

The purpose of this project was to investigate the use of Bayesian methods for the estimation of the reliability of complex systems. The goals were to find methods for dealing with continuous data, rather than simple pass/fail data; to avoid assumptions of specific probability distributions, especially Gaussian, or normal, distributions; to compute not only an estimate of the reliability of the system, but also a measure of the confidence in that estimate; to develop procedures to address time-dependent or aging aspects in such systems, and to use these models and results to derive optimal testing strategies. The system is assumed to be a system of systems, i.e., a system with discrete components that are themselves systems. Furthermore, the system is 'engineered' in the sense that each node is designed to do something and that we have a mathematical description of that process. In the time-dependent case, the assumption is that we have a general, nonlinear, time-dependent function describing the process. The major results of the project are described in this report. In summary, we developed a sophisticated mathematical framework based on modern probability theory and Bayesian analysis. This framework encompasses all aspects of epistemic uncertainty and easily incorporates steady-state and time-dependent systems. Based on Markov chain, Monte Carlo methods, we devised a computational strategy for general probability density estimation in the steady-state case. This enabled us to compute a distribution of the reliability from which many questions, including confidence, could be addressed. We then extended this to the time domain and implemented procedures to estimate the reliability over time, including the use of the method to predict the reliability at a future time. Finally, we used certain aspects of Bayesian decision analysis to create a novel method for determining an optimal testing strategy, e.g., we can estimate the 'best' location to take the next test to minimize the risk of making a wrong decision about the fitness of a system. We conclude this report by proposing additional fruitful areas of research.

Uncertainty Quantification

Uncertainty Quantification
Author: Ralph C. Smith
Publisher: SIAM
Total Pages: 571
Release: 2024-09-13
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1611977843

Uncertainty quantification serves a fundamental role when establishing the predictive capabilities of simulation models. This book provides a comprehensive and unified treatment of the mathematical, statistical, and computational theory and methods employed to quantify uncertainties associated with models from a wide range of applications. Expanded and reorganized, the second edition includes advances in the field and provides a comprehensive sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification framework for models from science and engineering. It contains new chapters on random field representations, observation models, parameter identifiability and influence, active subspace analysis, and statistical surrogate models, and a completely revised chapter on local sensitivity analysis. Other updates to the second edition are the inclusion of over 100 exercises and many new examples — several of which include data — and UQ Crimes listed throughout the text to identify common misconceptions and guide readers entering the field. Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications, Second Edition is intended for advanced undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers in mathematics, statistics, engineering, physical and biological sciences, operations research, and computer science. Readers are assumed to have a basic knowledge of probability, linear algebra, differential equations, and introductory numerical analysis. The book can be used as a primary text for a one-semester course on sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification or as a supplementary text for courses on surrogate and reduced-order model construction and parameter identifiability analysis.

Topics in Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 5

Topics in Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 5
Author: Todd Simmermacher
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 264
Release: 2013-05-30
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 1461465648

Topics in Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume : Proceedings of the 31st IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2013, the fifth volume of seven from the Conference, brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Structural Dynamics, including papers on: Uncertainty Quantification & Propagation in Structural Dynamics Robustness to Lack of Knowledge in Design Model Validation

Dependable Embedded Systems

Dependable Embedded Systems
Author: Jörg Henkel
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 606
Release: 2020-12-09
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 303052017X

This Open Access book introduces readers to many new techniques for enhancing and optimizing reliability in embedded systems, which have emerged particularly within the last five years. This book introduces the most prominent reliability concerns from today’s points of view and roughly recapitulates the progress in the community so far. Unlike other books that focus on a single abstraction level such circuit level or system level alone, the focus of this book is to deal with the different reliability challenges across different levels starting from the physical level all the way to the system level (cross-layer approaches). The book aims at demonstrating how new hardware/software co-design solution can be proposed to ef-fectively mitigate reliability degradation such as transistor aging, processor variation, temperature effects, soft errors, etc. Provides readers with latest insights into novel, cross-layer methods and models with respect to dependability of embedded systems; Describes cross-layer approaches that can leverage reliability through techniques that are pro-actively designed with respect to techniques at other layers; Explains run-time adaptation and concepts/means of self-organization, in order to achieve error resiliency in complex, future many core systems.

Multifaceted Uncertainty Quantification

Multifaceted Uncertainty Quantification
Author: Isaac Elishakoff
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG
Total Pages: 384
Release: 2024-09-23
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3111354237

The book exposes three alternative and competing approaches to uncertainty analysis in engineering. It is composed of some essays on various sub-topics like random vibrations, probabilistic reliability, fuzzy-sets-based analysis, unknown-but-bounded variables, stochastic linearization, possible difficulties with stochastic analysis of structures.

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3
Author: Roland Platz
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 208
Release: 2023-10-06
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3031370031

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 3: Proceedings of the 41st IMAC, A Conference and Exposition on Structural Dynamics, 2023, the third volume of ten from the Conference brings together contributions to this important area of research and engineering. The collection presents early findings and case studies on fundamental and applied aspects of Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification, including papers on: Introduction of Uncertainty Quantification Uncertainty Quantification in Dynamics Model Form Uncertainty and Selection incl. Round Robin Challenge Sensor and Information Fusion Virtual Sensing, Certification, and Real-Time Monitoring Surrogate Modeling