Uncertainty Quantification

Uncertainty Quantification
Author: Ralph C. Smith
Publisher: SIAM
Total Pages: 400
Release: 2013-12-02
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1611973228

The field of uncertainty quantification is evolving rapidly because of increasing emphasis on models that require quantified uncertainties for large-scale applications, novel algorithm development, and new computational architectures that facilitate implementation of these algorithms. Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications provides readers with the basic concepts, theory, and algorithms necessary to quantify input and response uncertainties for simulation models arising in a broad range of disciplines. The book begins with a detailed discussion of applications where uncertainty quantification is critical for both scientific understanding and policy. It then covers concepts from probability and statistics, parameter selection techniques, frequentist and Bayesian model calibration, propagation of uncertainties, quantification of model discrepancy, surrogate model construction, and local and global sensitivity analysis. The author maintains a complementary web page where readers can find data used in the exercises and other supplementary material.

Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling

Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Quantification and Stochastic Modelling
Author: José Eduardo Souza De Cursi
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 282
Release: 2023-10-21
Genre: Technology & Engineering
ISBN: 3031470362

This proceedings book covers a wide range of topics related to uncertainty analysis and its application in various fields of engineering and science. It explores uncertainties in numerical simulations for soil liquefaction potential, the toughness properties of construction materials, experimental tests on cyclic liquefaction potential, and the estimation of geotechnical engineering properties for aerogenerator foundation design. Additionally, the book delves into uncertainties in concrete compressive strength, bio-inspired shape optimization using isogeometric analysis, stochastic damping in rotordynamics, and the hygro-thermal properties of raw earth building materials. It also addresses dynamic analysis with uncertainties in structural parameters, reliability-based design optimization of steel frames, and calibration methods for models with dependent parameters. The book further explores mechanical property characterization in 3D printing, stochastic analysis in computational simulations, probability distribution in branching processes, data assimilation in ocean circulation modeling, uncertainty quantification in climate prediction, and applications of uncertainty quantification in decision problems and disaster management. This comprehensive collection provides insights into the challenges and solutions related to uncertainty in various scientific and engineering contexts.

Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models

Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 144
Release: 2012-07-26
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 0309256348

Advances in computing hardware and algorithms have dramatically improved the ability to simulate complex processes computationally. Today's simulation capabilities offer the prospect of addressing questions that in the past could be addressed only by resource-intensive experimentation, if at all. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models recognizes the ubiquity of uncertainty in computational estimates of reality and the necessity for its quantification. As computational science and engineering have matured, the process of quantifying or bounding uncertainties in a computational estimate of a physical quality of interest has evolved into a small set of interdependent tasks: verification, validation, and uncertainty of quantification (VVUQ). In recognition of the increasing importance of computational simulation and the increasing need to assess uncertainties in computational results, the National Research Council was asked to study the mathematical foundations of VVUQ and to recommend steps that will ultimately lead to improved processes. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models discusses changes in education of professionals and dissemination of information that should enhance the ability of future VVUQ practitioners to improve and properly apply VVUQ methodologies to difficult problems, enhance the ability of VVUQ customers to understand VVUQ results and use them to make informed decisions, and enhance the ability of all VVUQ stakeholders to communicate with each other. This report is an essential resource for all decision and policy makers in the field, students, stakeholders, UQ experts, and VVUQ educators and practitioners.

Probabilistic Uncertainty Quantification and Simulation for Climate Modelling

Probabilistic Uncertainty Quantification and Simulation for Climate Modelling
Author: Tristan Hauser
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

This thesis addresses probabilistic approaches to uncertainty quantification, within the context of climate science. For the results of climate studies to be appropriately understood and applied, it is necessary to quantify their relation to the observable world. Probability theory provides a formal approach that can be applied commonly to the encountered uncertainties. Three studies are presented within. The first addresses the Bayesian calibration of climate simulators. This method quantifies simulation uncertainties by taking into account inherent model and observation uncertainties. Here an alternative method for the fast statistical emulators of model parameter relationships is tested, as well as a rigorous approach to quantifying model limitations. The second examines probabilistic methods for identifying regional climatological features and quantifying the related uncertainties. Such features serve as a basis of comparison for climate simulations, as well as defining, to some extent, how we view evolution of the modern climate. Here typical patterns are recreated using an approach that quantifies uncertainty in the data analysis. As well, temporal shifts in the distribution of these features and their relation to ocean variability is explored. The third study experiments with approaches to regional stochastic weather generation. There is an inherent residual between climate simulations and large scale features, and regional variability seen on daily timescales. Weather generators provide an error model to quantify this uncertainty, and define features and variability underrepresented in global simulations. A method is developed which allows for regional, rather than site specific, simulation for the North Atlantic, a region of very active and varied atmospheric activity. In total, the work presented within covers the range of uncertainty types that must be considered by climate studies. The individual articles addresses contemporary questions concerning appropriate methods and implementation for their probabilistic quantification.

Uncertainty Quantification in Stochastic Models for Extreme Loads

Uncertainty Quantification in Stochastic Models for Extreme Loads
Author: Phong The Truong Nguyen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

Many response parameters for offshore structures such as wave energy converters (WECs), wind turbines, oil and gas platforms, etc. can be modeled as stochastic processes. The extreme of such a response process over any selected interval of time is a random variable. Having accurate estimates of such extremes during a structure's life is crucial in structural design, but there are challenges in their estimation due to various sources of uncertainty. These include uncertainty from environmental conditions or the climate/weather as well as from short-term simulations of these stochastic processes at appropriate time and space resolution. Together, these uncertainty sources make up a high-dimension vector of random variables (that can be on the order of thousands). Many offshore structures must withstand many years of exposure and use return periods for design that are on order of 50 to 100 years. The focus of this study is on rare events or response levels that are associated with very low probabilities of exceedance (e.g., on the order of $10−6 over a typical 1-hour duration). Time-domain simulations of dynamic offshore structures can be computationally expensive even for a single simulation. Various approaches can be adopted in practice to account for uncertainties in extreme response prediction. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is the most common for exhaustive prediction of the response for all conditions. Since MCS can be computationally very demanding, the development of efficient surrogate models is presented to more efficiently deal with these uncertainties. A proposed method, in this study, is based on the use of an ensemble of multiple polynomial chaos expansion (M-PCE) surrogate models to propagate the uncertainty from the environment through the stochastic input simulation to eventual design load prediction. In particular, each PCE model in the ensemble provides an approximate relationship between the structural response and the underlying environmental variables, while variability in the short-term simulations is accounted for by the multiple surrogates. M-PCE helps overcome the curse of dimensionality since, instead of dealing with development of a high-dimensional surrogate model, the M-PCE ensemble includes multiple low-dimensional PCE models, each defined in terms of only the long-term environmental variables, which are of low dimension. It is found that the M-PCE ensemble can efficiently predict long-term extreme loads associated at exceedance probability levels (in 1 hour) of $10−5 or higher. Next, by considering MCS and M-PCE as high-fidelity and low-fidelity models, respectively, this study proposes a bi-fidelity approach that combines M-PCE and MCS outputs so as to control, or even eliminate bias introduced by the use of the M-PCE ensemble alone. The approach takes advantage of the robustness of MCS on the one hand and the efficiency of M-PCE model on the other. The key idea is that many of the model simulations are carried out using the inexpensive M-PCE ensemble while a very small number of simulations use the costly high-fidelity model. In this way, the new method significantly enhances the efficiency of MCS and improves the accuracy of the M-PCE ensemble. Finally, this dissertation explores the use of a combination of sliced inverse regression (SIR) and polynomial chaos expansion in uncertainty quantification of response extremes. The SIR procedure is adopted to reduce the original high-dimensional problem to a low-dimensional one; then, the PCE model is employed as a surrogate in the reduced-dimension space in this SIR-PCE scheme. All the proposed approaches including the M-PCE ensemble, the bi-fidelity MPCE-MCS and the SIR-PCE scheme can help mitigate the curse of dimensionality issue; thus, they are all viable approaches for probabilistic assessment of high-dimensional stochastic models, especially when predicting very rare long-term extreme response levels for offshore structures. The proposed methods are validated using examples ranging from benchmarking analytical functions to offshore structures that include studies on a maximum wave elevation, a linear single-degree-of-freedom system response, and a nonlinear wave energy converter. All the proposed methods are found to be efficient and need significantly less effort to achieve unbiased estimations of extreme response levels compared with MCS

Stochastic Climate Models

Stochastic Climate Models
Author: Peter Imkeller
Publisher: Birkhäuser
Total Pages: 413
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3034882874

A collection of articles written by mathematicians and physicists, designed to describe the state of the art in climate models with stochastic input. Mathematicians will benefit from a survey of simple models, while physicists will encounter mathematically relevant techniques at work.