Uncertainty Quantification And Propagation For External Hazard Probabilistic Risk Assessment
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Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
Author | : Terje Aven |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 212 |
Release | : 2014-02-03 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 1118489586 |
Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Uncertainty characterization in risk analysis for decision-making practice
Author | : Enrico Zio |
Publisher | : FonCSI |
Total Pages | : 63 |
Release | : 2012-05-01 |
Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | : |
This document provides an overview of sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis. For each phase of the risk analysis process (system modeling, hazard identification, estimation of the probability and consequences of accident sequences, risk evaluation), the authors describe and classify the types of uncertainty that can arise. The document provides : a description of the risk assessment process, as used in hazardous industries such as nuclear power and offshore oil and gas extraction ; a classification of sources of uncertainty (both epistemic and aleatory) and a description of techniques for uncertainty representation ; a description of the different steps involved in a Probabilistic Risk Assessement (PRA) or Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), and an analysis of the types of uncertainty that can affect each of these steps ; annexes giving an overview of a number of tools used during probabilistic risk assessment, including the HAZID technique, fault trees and event tree analysis.
Treatment of Uncertainties in Probabilistic Risk Assessment
Author | : Vanderley Vasconcelos |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2022 |
Genre | : Electronic books |
ISBN | : |
Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), sometimes called probabilistic safety analysis, quantifies the risk of undesired events in industrial facilities. However, one of the weaknesses that undermines the credibility and usefulness of this technique is the uncertainty in PRA results. Fault tree analysis (FTA) and event tree analysis (ETA) are the most important PRA techniques for evaluating system reliabilities and likelihoods of accident scenarios. Uncertainties, as incompleteness and imprecision, are present in probabilities of undesired events and failure rate data. Furthermore, both FTA and ETA traditionally assume that events are independent, assumptions that are often unrealistic and introduce uncertainties in data and modeling when using FTA and ETA. This work explores uncertainty handling approaches for analyzing the fault trees and event trees (method of moments) as a way to overcome the challenges of PRA. Applications of the developed frameworks and approaches are explored in illustrative examples, where the probability distributions of the top event of fault trees are obtained through the propagation of uncertainties of the failure probabilities of basic events. The application of the method of moments to propagate uncertainty of log-normal distributions showed good agreement with results available in the literature using different methods.
20th International Probabilistic Workshop
Author | : José C. Matos |
Publisher | : Springer Nature |
Total Pages | : 536 |
Release | : |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : 3031602714 |
Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making
Author | : V.T. Covello |
Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
Total Pages | : 523 |
Release | : 2013-03-08 |
Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | : 1468453173 |
The subject of this volume--uncertainties in risk assessment and management--reflects an important theme in health, safety, and environ mental decision making. MOst technological hazards are characterized by substantial uncertainty. Recent examples include nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, asbestos in schools, carcinogens in food, and hazardous waste. realing with such uncertainty is arguably the most difficult and challeng ing task facing risk assessors and managers today. Four primary sources of uncertainty in risk assessment and management can be identified: (1) uncertainties about definitions; (2) uncertainties about scientific facts; (3) uncertainties about risk perceptions and atti tudes; and (4) uncertainties about values. Uncertainties about definitions derive primarily from disagreements about the meaning and interpretation of key concepts, such as probability. Uncertainties about scientific facts derive primarily from disagreements about failure modes, the probability and magnitude of adverse health or environmental consequences, cause and effect relationships, dose-response relationships, and exposure patterns. Uncertainties about risk perceptions and attitudes derive primarily from disagreements about what constitutes a significant or acceptable level of risk. Uncertainties about values derive primarily from disagreements about the desirability or worth of alternative risk management actions or conse quences. The papers in this volume address each of these sources of uncertainty from a variety of perspectives. Reflecting the broad scope of risk assess ment and risk management research, the papers include contributions from safety engineers, epidemiologists, toxicologists, chemists, biostatisticians, biologists, decision analysts, economists, psychologists, political scien tists, sociologists, ethicists, and lawyers.
Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment
Author | : Karin Riley |
Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
Total Pages | : 356 |
Release | : 2016-12-12 |
Genre | : Science |
ISBN | : 1119027861 |
Uncertainties are pervasive in natural hazards, and it is crucial to develop robust and meaningful approaches to characterize and communicate uncertainties to inform modeling efforts. In this monograph we provide a broad, cross-disciplinary overview of issues relating to uncertainties faced in natural hazard and risk assessment. We introduce some basic tenets of uncertainty analysis, discuss issues related to communication and decision support, and offer numerous examples of analyses and modeling approaches that vary by context and scope. Contributors include scientists from across the full breath of the natural hazard scientific community, from those in real-time analysis of natural hazards to those in the research community from academia and government. Key themes and highlights include: Substantial breadth and depth of analysis in terms of the types of natural hazards addressed, the disciplinary perspectives represented, and the number of studies included Targeted, application-centered analyses with a focus on development and use of modeling techniques to address various sources of uncertainty Emphasis on the impacts of climate change on natural hazard processes and outcomes Recommendations for cross-disciplinary and science transfer across natural hazard sciences This volume will be an excellent resource for those interested in the current work on uncertainty classification/quantification and will document common and emergent research themes to allow all to learn from each other and build a more connected but still diverse and ever growing community of scientists. Read an interview with the editors to find out more: https://eos.org/editors-vox/reducing-uncertainty-in-hazard-prediction
Probabilistic Risk Analysis
Author | : Tim Bedford |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 228 |
Release | : 2001-04-30 |
Genre | : Mathematics |
ISBN | : 9780521773201 |
A graduate level textbook on probabilistic risk analysis, aimed at statisticians, operations researchers and engineers.
Literature review of methods for representing uncertainty
Author | : Enrico Zio |
Publisher | : FonCSI |
Total Pages | : 61 |
Release | : 2013-03-01 |
Genre | : Technology & Engineering |
ISBN | : |
This document provides a critical review of different frameworks for uncertainty analysis, in a risk analysis context : classical probabilistic analysis, imprecise probability (interval analysis), probability bound analysis, evidence theory, and possibility theory. The driver of the critical analysis is the decision-making process and the need to feed it with representative information derived from the risk assessment, to robustly support the decision. Technical details of the different frameworks are exposed only to the extent necessary to analyze and judge how these contribute to the communication of risk and the representation of the associated uncertainties to decision-makers, in the typical settings of high-consequence risk analysis of complex systems with limited knowledge on their behaviour.
Review of Probabilistic Safety Assessments by Regulatory Bodies
Author | : International Atomic Energy Agency |
Publisher | : IAEA |
Total Pages | : 168 |
Release | : 2002 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
Probabilistic safety assessments (PSA) are increasingly being used as part of the regulatory decision-making process to assess safety levels of nuclear power plants. This report contains a detailed account of the review process and the relevant technical issues involved.