Uncertainty Quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model

Uncertainty Quantification and Global Sensitivity Analysis of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model
Author:
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Total Pages:
Release: 2016
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Changes in the high-latitude climate system have the potential to affect global climate through feedbacks with the atmosphere and connections with midlatitudes. Sea ice and climate models used to understand these changes have uncertainties that need to be characterized and quantified. We present a quantitative way to assess uncertainty in complex computer models, which is a new approach in the analysis of sea ice models. We characterize parametric uncertainty in the Los Alamos sea ice model (CICE) in a standalone configuration and quantify the sensitivity of sea ice area, extent, and volume with respect to uncertainty in 39 individual model parameters. Unlike common sensitivity analyses conducted in previous studies where parameters are varied one at a time, this study uses a global variance-based approach in which Sobol' sequences are used to efficiently sample the full 39-dimensional parameter space. We implement a fast emulator of the sea ice model whose predictions of sea ice extent, area, and volume are used to compute the Sobol' sensitivity indices of the 39 parameters. Main effects and interactions among the most influential parameters are also estimated by a nonparametric regression technique based on generalized additive models. A ranking based on the sensitivity indices indicates that model predictions are most sensitive to snow parameters such as snow conductivity and grain size, and the drainage of melt ponds. Lastly, it is recommended that research be prioritized toward more accurately determining these most influential parameter values by observational studies or by improving parameterizations in the sea ice model.

Development, Sensitivity Analysis, and Uncertainty Quantification of High-fidelity Arctic Sea Ice Models

Development, Sensitivity Analysis, and Uncertainty Quantification of High-fidelity Arctic Sea Ice Models
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 68
Release: 2010
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Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and due to feedback effects the Arctic ice cover is changing rapidly. Predictive mathematical models are of paramount importance for accurate estimates of the future ice trajectory. However, the sea ice components of Global Climate Models (GCMs) vary significantly in their prediction of the future state of Arctic sea ice and have generally underestimated the rate of decline in minimum sea ice extent seen over the past thirty years. One of the contributing factors to this variability is the sensitivity of the sea ice to model physical parameters. A new sea ice model that has the potential to improve sea ice predictions incorporates an anisotropic elastic-decohesive rheology and dynamics solved using the material-point method (MPM), which combines Lagrangian particles for advection with a background grid for gradient computations. We evaluate the variability of the Los Alamos National Laboratory CICE code and the MPM sea ice code for a single year simulation of the Arctic basin using consistent ocean and atmospheric forcing. Sensitivities of ice volume, ice area, ice extent, root mean square (RMS) ice speed, central Arctic ice thickness, and central Arctic ice speed with respect to ten different dynamic and thermodynamic parameters are evaluated both individually and in combination using the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA). We find similar responses for the two codes and some interesting seasonal variability in the strength of the parameters on the solution.

Quantifying Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Sea Ice Models

Quantifying Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Sea Ice Models
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 5
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

The Los Alamos Sea Ice model has a number of input parameters for which accurate values are not always well established. We conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis of hemispheric sea ice properties to 39 input parameters. The method accounts for non-linear and non-additive effects in the model.

Reducing Uncertainty in High-resolution Sea Ice Models

Reducing Uncertainty in High-resolution Sea Ice Models
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2013
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Arctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system, reflecting a significant amount of solar radiation, insulating the ocean from the atmosphere and influencing ocean circulation by modifying the salinity of the upper ocean. The thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice have shown a significant decline in recent decades with implications for global climate as well as regional geopolitics. Increasing interest in exploration as well as climate feedback effects make predictive mathematical modeling of sea ice a task of tremendous practical import. Satellite data obtained over the last few decades have provided a wealth of information on sea ice motion and deformation. The data clearly show that ice deformation is focused along narrow linear features and this type of deformation is not well-represented in existing models. To improve sea ice dynamics we have incorporated an anisotropic rheology into the Los Alamos National Laboratory global sea ice model, CICE. Sensitivity analyses were performed using the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) to determine the impact of material parameters on sea ice response functions. Two material strength parameters that exhibited the most significant impact on responses were further analyzed to evaluate their influence on quantitative comparisons between model output and data. The sensitivity analysis along with ten year model runs indicate that while the anisotropic rheology provides some benefit in velocity predictions, additional improvements are required to make this material model a viable alternative for global sea ice simulations.

Sea Ice Analysis and Forecasting

Sea Ice Analysis and Forecasting
Author: Tom Carrieres
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 263
Release: 2017-10-05
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1108417426

A comprehensive overview of the science involved in automated prediction of sea ice, for sea ice analysts, researchers, and professionals.

Arctic Sea Ice Decline

Arctic Sea Ice Decline
Author: Eric T. DeWeaver
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 431
Release: 2013-05-28
Genre: Science
ISBN: 1118671589

Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 180. This volume addresses the rapid decline of Arctic sea ice, placing recent sea ice decline in the context of past observations, climate model simulations and projections, and simple models of the climate sensitivity of sea ice. Highlights of the work presented here include An appraisal of the role played by wind forcing in driving the decline; A reconstruction of Arctic sea ice conditions prior to human observations, based on proxy data from sediments; A modeling approach for assessing the impact of sea ice decline on polar bears, used as input to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's decision to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act; Contrasting studies on the existence of a "tipping point," beyond which Arctic sea ice decline will become (or has already become) irreversible, including an examination of the role of the small ice cap instability in global warming simulations; A significant summertime atmospheric response to sea ice reduction in an atmospheric general circulation model, suggesting a positive feedback and the potential for short-term climate prediction. The book will be of interest to researchers attempting to understand the recent behavior of Arctic sea ice, model projections of future sea ice loss, and the consequences of sea ice loss for the natural and human systems of the Arctic.

Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Tuning of a Sea-ice Model

Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Tuning of a Sea-ice Model
Author:
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Total Pages: 5
Release: 2000
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The values of many of the parameters in climate models are often not known with any great precision. We describe the use of automatic differentiation to examine the sensitivity of an uncoupled dynamic-thermodynamic sea-ice model to various parameters. We also illustrate the effectiveness of using these sensitivity derivatives with an optimization algorithm to tune the parameters to maximize the agreement between simulated results and observational data.

Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice

Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice
Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
Total Pages: 93
Release: 2013-01-03
Genre: Science
ISBN: 0309265266

Recent well documented reductions in the thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice cover, which can be linked to the warming climate, are affecting the global climate system and are also affecting the global economic system as marine access to the Arctic region and natural resource development increase. Satellite data show that during each of the past six summers, sea ice cover has shrunk to its smallest in three decades. The composition of the ice is also changing, now containing a higher fraction of thin first-year ice instead of thicker multi-year ice. Understanding and projecting future sea ice conditions is important to a growing number of stakeholders, including local populations, natural resource industries, fishing communities, commercial shippers, marine tourism operators, national security organizations, regulatory agencies, and the scientific research community. However, gaps in understanding the interactions between Arctic sea ice, oceans, and the atmosphere, along with an increasing rate of change in the nature and quantity of sea ice, is hampering accurate predictions. Although modeling has steadily improved, projections by every major modeling group failed to predict the record breaking drop in summer sea ice extent in September 2012. Establishing sustained communication between the user, modeling, and observation communities could help reveal gaps in understanding, help balance the needs and expectations of different stakeholders, and ensure that resources are allocated to address the most pressing sea ice data needs. Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies explores these topics.

Uncertainty Quantification in Ocean State Estimation

Uncertainty Quantification in Ocean State Estimation
Author: Alexander G. Kalmikov
Publisher:
Total Pages: 160
Release: 2013
Genre: Climatic changes
ISBN:

Quantifying uncertainty and error bounds is a key outstanding challenge in ocean state estimation and climate research. It is particularly difficult due to the large dimensionality of this nonlinear estimation problem and the number of uncertain variables involved. The "Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Oceans" (ECCO) consortium has developed a scalable system for dynamically consistent estimation of global time-evolving ocean state by optimal combination of ocean general circulation model (GCM) with diverse ocean observations. The estimation system is based on the "adjoint method" solution of an unconstrained least-squares optimization problem formulated with the method of Lagrange multipliers for fitting the dynamical ocean model to observations. The dynamical consistency requirement of ocean state estimation necessitates this approach over sequential data assimilation and reanalysis smoothing techniques. In addition, it is computationally advantageous because calculation and storage of large covariance matrices is not required. However, this is also a drawback of the adjoint method, which lacks a native formalism for error propagation and quantification of assimilated uncertainty. The objective of this dissertation is to resolve that limitation by developing a feasible computational methodology for uncertainty analysis in dynamically consistent state estimation, applicable to the large dimensionality of global ocean models. Hessian (second derivative-based) methodology is developed for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in large-scale ocean state estimation, extending the gradient-based adjoint method to employ the second order geometry information of the model-data misfit function in a high-dimensional control space. Large error covariance matrices are evaluated by inverting the Hessian matrix with the developed scalable matrix-free numerical linear algebra algorithms. Hessian-vector product and Jacobian derivative codes of the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) are generated by means of algorithmic differentiation (AD). Computational complexity of the Hessian code is reduced by tangent linear differentiation of the adjoint code, which preserves the speedup of adjoint checkpointing schemes in the second derivative calculation. A Lanczos algorithm is applied for extracting the leading rank eigenvectors and eigenvalues of the Hessian matrix. The eigenvectors represent the constrained uncertainty patterns. The inverse eigenvalues are the corresponding uncertainties. The dimensionality of UQ calculations is reduced by eliminating the uncertainty null-space unconstrained by the supplied observations. Inverse and forward uncertainty propagation schemes are designed for assimilating observation and control variable uncertainties, and for projecting these uncertainties onto oceanographic target quantities. Two versions of these schemes are developed: one evaluates reduction of prior uncertainties, while another does not require prior assumptions. The analysis of uncertainty propagation in the ocean model is time-resolving. It captures the dynamics of uncertainty evolution and reveals transient and stationary uncertainty regimes. The system is applied to quantifying uncertainties of Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport in a global barotropic configuration of the MITgcm. The model is constrained by synthetic observations of sea surface height and velocities. The control space consists of two-dimensional maps of initial and boundary conditions and model parameters. The size of the Hessian matrix is 0(1010) elements, which would require 0(60GB) of uncompressed storage. It is demonstrated how the choice of observations and their geographic coverage determines the reduction in uncertainties of the estimated transport. The system also yields information on how well the control fields are constrained by the observations. The effects of controls uncertainty reduction due to decrease of diagonal covariance terms are compared to dynamical coupling of controls through off-diagonal covariance terms. The correlations of controls introduced by observation uncertainty assimilation are found to dominate the reduction of uncertainty of transport. An idealized analytical model of ACC guides a detailed time-resolving understanding of uncertainty dynamics. Keywords: Adjoint model uncertainty, sensitivity, posterior error reduction, reduced rank Hessian matrix, Automatic Differentiation, ocean state estimation, barotropic model, Drake Passage transport.

The Application of Uncertainty Quantification Techniques and Information Theory to Oil Spill and Ocean Forecasting

The Application of Uncertainty Quantification Techniques and Information Theory to Oil Spill and Ocean Forecasting
Author: Shitao Wang
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

Quantifying uncertainties in ocean current forecasts is an important component of formulating a response to an oil spill, e.g. to compute the anticipated oil trajectories. Polynomial Chaos (PC) methods have recently been used to quantify uncertainties in the circulation forecast of the Gulf of Mexico caused by uncertain initial conditions and wind forcing data. The input uncertainties consisted of the amplitudes of perturbation modes whose space-time structure was obtained from Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) decompositions. These efforts were the first to rely on a PC approach to efficiently quantify uncertainties in an ocean model, and as such have raised a number of issues that we wish to address, namely the realism of the perturbations, the effective choices in choosing the uncertain variables, the information trade-offs of the different uncertain input choices, and the ability to reduce these uncertainties if observational data is available. We explore whether these EOF-based perturbations lead to realistic representation of the uncertainties in the circulation forecast of the Gulf of Mexico. We also use information theoretic metrics to quantify the information gain and the computational trade-offs between different wind forcing and initial condition EOF modes. Surface and subsurface model data comparisons show that the observational data falls within the envelope of the ensemble simulations and that the EOF decompositions deliver ``realistic'' perturbations in the Loop Current region. The result of the computational trade-offs indicate that two initial condition EOF modes are enough to represent the uncertainties in the Loop Current region; while wind forcing EOF modes are necessary in order to capture uncertainties in the coastal zone. This result is consistent with the global sensitivity analysis. The ensemble statistics are then explored using the PC approach and the newly developed contour boxplot method. Specifically, the contour boxplot is used to identify the most representative ensemble member and the outliers. The full probability density functions of sea surface height are estimated using the PC method. With 20 years of satellite observations, the predictability in the circulation forecast of the Gulf of Mexico is investigated using information theory. Finally, we update our knowledge about the uncertain inputs using along track satellite observations. The best initial perturbations are found using the Bayesian optimization approach and the full posterior distributions of the uncertain inputs are estimated using the Bayesian inference framework.