Inflation, Uncertainty, and Growth in Colombia

Inflation, Uncertainty, and Growth in Colombia
Author: Mr.Henry Ma
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 31
Release: 1998-11-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451981589

It has been argued that higher levels of inflation lead to greater uncertainty about future inflation and to greater dispersion of relative prices. In either case, inflation could reduce the efficiency of market prices in coordinating economic activities. This paper shows that the rise of inflation in Colombia, from low levels in the 1950s to average rates of 18–22 percent since the 1970s, has been accompanied by increased uncertainty and relative price dispersion; and that inflation has had a negative and persistent effect on real GDP growth.

Uncertainty of the Inflation and Economic Growth

Uncertainty of the Inflation and Economic Growth
Author: Muhia John Gachunga
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

Based on a VAR-GARCH model this paper proposes an assessment of the relationship between the uncertainty emanating from the volatility of inflation and the economic growth of the East African countries. The results suggested the continued persistence of volatility in inflation and economic growth but also a very significant magnitude of the uncertainty of inflation. The transmission mechanisms of uncertain inflation on economic growth was observed to differ across countries. Therefore, Macroeconomic convergence, price stabilization and development policies in the region have not been enough to counteract the persistence of fluctuations in inflation and economic growth, hence unable curb the overall negative effects of the interaction of inflation shocks across countries.

IMF Staff Papers

IMF Staff Papers
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 229
Release: 1963-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451956029

This paper discusses effects of inflation on economic development. A mild inflation may well encourage little, or no, evasion of the “inflation tax.” On the other hand, a strong inflation, and frequently a mild one also, will lead to community reactions which have effects like those of widespread tax evasion. A development policy may have wider aims than the encouragement of a high level of investment. Inflation has two effects on the desire for liquidity, which are related to the two basic reasons why individuals and businesses wish to hold liquid assets—the speculative and precautionary motives. Inflation increases the value of effective liquidity, thereby raising the community's desire for it, but it makes the most generally accepted store of liquidity unacceptable sources of protection. The control of inflation is only one of the problems facing a government wishing to encourage rapid economic development. The fight against illiteracy, the reform of bureaucratic practices, the building of basic sanitary facilities for the eradication of endemic diseases, the substitution of competitive for monopolistic trade practices, the encouragement of a widespread spirit of entrepreneurship, and the creation of an adequate amount of social capital, may be important prerequisites for rapid growth.

The Great Inflation

The Great Inflation
Author: Michael D. Bordo
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 545
Release: 2013-06-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0226066959

Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy

Output Gap Uncertainty and Real-Time Monetary Policy
Author: Francesco Grigoli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2015-01-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498375855

Output gap estimates are subject to a wide range of uncertainty owing to data revisions and the difficulty in distinguishing between cycle and trend in real time. This is important given the central role in monetary policy of assessments of economic activity relative to capacity. We show that country desks tend to overestimate economic slack, especially during recessions, and that uncertainty in initial output gap estimates persists several years. Only a small share of output gap revisions is predictable ex ante based on characteristics like output dynamics, data quality, and policy frameworks. We also show that for a group of Latin American inflation targeters the prescriptions from typical monetary policy rules are subject to large changes due to output gap revisions. These revisions explain a sizable proportion of the deviation of inflation from target, suggesting this information is not accounted for in real-time policy decisions.

The Era of Uncertainty

The Era of Uncertainty
Author: Francois Trahan
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 228
Release: 2011-07-13
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118134095

Macroeconomic Investment Strategies for an Era of Economic Uncertainty “Over the years, François’ insightful analyses of the business cycle has led to market calls that have both benefitted investors on the upside and (more important to many) protected them from losses on the downside. François’ incredible track record in successfully interpreting the trends that can be found in leading indicators and other macroeconomic data have also led to his well deserved reputation as an expert in sector rotation - providing investors on both the long and short side of the market opportunities to profit from his ideas. In my opinion, his most important and influential macro prediction to date was his call in the middle of the last decade when he predicted that the worst housing crisis in American history would soon be upon us, and that it would have far-ranging implications for both the global economy and world financial markets.”

Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2009-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135179778

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Inflation Uncertainty and Growth in a Cash-in-Advance Economy

Inflation Uncertainty and Growth in a Cash-in-Advance Economy
Author: Michael Dotsey
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2001
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper analyzes the effects of inflation variability on economic growth in a model where money is introduced via a cash-in-advance constraint. In this setting, we find that inflation adversely affects long-run growth, even when the cash-in-advance constraint applies only to consumption. At the same time, we find that inflation and growth are positively related in the short run. Furthermore, variability increases average growth through a precautionary savings motive. Since inflation and inflation variability tend to be highly correlated, the presence of uncertainty attenuates the negative long-run relationship between inflation and real growth. It also provides a partial rationale for the apparent lack of robustness in cross-country regressions of growth and inflation. Keyword(s): Economic growth; Inflation; Uncertainty.