Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics

Uncertainty, Expectations and Asset Price Dynamics
Author: Fredj Jawadi
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 214
Release: 2018-11-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3319987143

Written in honor of Emeritus Professor Georges Prat (University of Paris Nanterre, France), this book includes contributions from eminent authors on a range of topics that are of interest to researchers and graduates, as well as investors and portfolio managers. The topics discussed include the effects of information and transaction costs on informational and allocative market efficiency, bubbles and stock price dynamics, paradox of rational expectations and the principle of limited information, uncertainty and expectation hypotheses, oil price dynamics, and nonlinearity in asset price dynamics.

Uncertainty, Expectations, and Financial Instability

Uncertainty, Expectations, and Financial Instability
Author: Eric Barthalon
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Total Pages: 445
Release: 2014-11-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0231538308

Eric Barthalon applies the neglected theory of psychological time and memory decay of Nobel Prize–winning economist Maurice Allais (1911–2010) to model investors' psychology in the present context of recurrent financial crises. Shaped by the behavior of the demand for money during episodes of hyperinflation, Allais's theory suggests economic agents perceive the flow of clocks' time and forget the past at a context-dependent pace: rapidly in the presence of persistent and accelerating inflation and slowly in the event of the opposite situation. Barthalon recasts Allais's work as a general theory of "expectations" under uncertainty, narrowing the gap between economic theory and investors' behavior. Barthalon extends Allais's theory to the field of financial instability, demonstrating its relevance to nominal interest rates in a variety of empirical scenarios and the positive nonlinear feedback that exists between asset price inflation and the demand for risky assets. Reviewing the works of the leading protagonists in the expectations controversy, Barthalon exposes the limitations of adaptive and rational expectations models and, by means of the perceived risk of loss, calls attention to the speculative bubbles that lacked the positive displacement discussed in Kindleberger's model of financial crises. He ultimately extrapolates Allaisian theory into a pragmatic approach to investor behavior and the natural instability of financial markets. He concludes with the policy implications for governments and regulators. Balanced and coherent, this book will be invaluable to researchers working in macreconomics, financial economics, behavioral finance, decision theory, and the history of economic thought.

Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction

Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction
Author: Stephen J. Taylor
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 544
Release: 2011-02-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1400839254

This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily and more frequent asset prices, and the prices of option contracts, can be used to construct and assess predictions about future prices, their volatility, and their probability distributions. Stephen Taylor provides a comprehensive introduction to the dynamic behavior of asset prices, relying on finance theory and statistical evidence. He uses stochastic processes to define mathematical models for price dynamics, but with less mathematics than in alternative texts. The key topics covered include random walk tests, trading rules, ARCH models, stochastic volatility models, high-frequency datasets, and the information that option prices imply about volatility and distributions. Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction is ideal for students of economics, finance, and mathematics who are studying financial econometrics, and will enable researchers to identify and apply appropriate models and methods. It will likewise be a valuable resource for quantitative analysts, fund managers, risk managers, and investors who seek realistic expectations about future asset prices and the risks to which they are exposed.

Limited Attention, Uncertainty, and Asset Price Dynamics

Limited Attention, Uncertainty, and Asset Price Dynamics
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023
Genre:
ISBN:

Standard neoclassical models in finance assume that individuals form expectations and make decisions using all available information. While these theories dictate that new information is instantaneously incorporated into asset prices, our minds and cognitive resources are finite and we allocate our attention selectively. Moreover, the amount of information relevant to the valuation of an asset is far from trivial in the current information society. This has important implications for asset pricing because attention is a prerequisite for distilling and processing information into prices. The underlying motivation of the empirical essays in this dissertation is to better understand the implications of boundedly rational market participants and to examine the role of limited attention. Using innovative datasets to measure attention, it provides new insights into how limited attention affects the expectation formation and behavior of financial agents, such as investors and analysts, and how this ultimately feeds into asset price dynamics. In this way, this dissertation contributes to a further development of the finance discipline from its neoclassical foundations towards a more realistic approach that integrates behavioral phenomena. In the first chapter we empirically test the rational inattention model for exchange rates. Rational inattention theory provides a framework of how cognitively limited agents might simplify and summarize available information. The framework is particularly suitable to study the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals, because exchange rates are largely determined by expectations of market participants. Our results provide strong evidence in favor of the rational inattention theory of exchange rates.

Volatility

Volatility
Author: Robert A. Jarrow
Publisher:
Total Pages: 472
Release: 1998
Genre: Derivative securities
ISBN:

Written by a number of authors, this text is aimed at market practitioners and applies the latest stochastic volatility research findings to the analysis of stock prices. It includes commentary and analysis based on real-life situations.

Uncertainty Within Economic Models

Uncertainty Within Economic Models
Author: Lars Peter Hansen
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 483
Release: 2014-09-09
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9814578134

Written by Lars Peter Hansen (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2013) and Thomas Sargent (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2011), Uncertainty within Economic Models includes articles adapting and applying robust control theory to problems in economics and finance. This book extends rational expectations models by including agents who doubt their models and adopt precautionary decisions designed to protect themselves from adverse consequences of model misspecification. This behavior has consequences for what are ordinarily interpreted as market prices of risk, but big parts of which should actually be interpreted as market prices of model uncertainty. The chapters discuss ways of calibrating agents' fears of model misspecification in quantitative contexts.

Asset Pricing for Dynamic Economies

Asset Pricing for Dynamic Economies
Author: Sumru Altug
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 686
Release: 2008-09-11
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1139474367

This introduction to general equilibrium modelling takes an integrated approach to the analysis of macroeconomics and finance. It provides students, practitioners, and policymakers with an easily accessible set of tools that can be used to analyze a wide range of economic phenomena. Key features: • Provides a consistent framework for understanding dynamic economic models • Introduces key concepts in finance in a discrete time setting • Develops simple recursive approach for analyzing a variety of problems in a dynamic, stochastic environment • Sequentially builds up the analysis of consumption, production, and investment models to study their implications for allocations and asset prices • Reviews business cycle analysis and the business cycle implications of monetary and international models • Covers latest research on asset pricing in overlapping generations models and on models with borrowing constraints and transaction costs • Includes end-of-chapter exercises allowing readers to monitor their understanding of each topic Online resources are available at www.cambridge.org/altug_labadie

Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles: Selected Essays

Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles: Selected Essays
Author: Anastasios G Malliaris
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 373
Release: 2005-10-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9814480045

The compendium of papers in this volume focuses on aspects of economic uncertainty, financial instabilities and asset bubbles.Economic uncertainty is modeled in continuous time using the mathematical techniques of stochastic calculus. A detailed treatment of important topics is provided, including the existence and uniqueness of asymptotic economic growth, the modeling of inflation and interest rates, the decomposition of inflation and its volatility, and the extension of the quantity theory of money to allow for randomness.The reader is also introduced to the methods of chaotic dynamics, and this methodology is applied to asset pricing, the European equity markets, and the multi-fractality in foreign currency markets.Since the techniques of stochastic calculus and chaotic dynamics do not readily accommodate the presence of stochastic bubbles, several papers discuss in depth the presence of financial bubbles in asset prices, and econometric work is performed to link such bubbles to monetary policy.Finally, since bubbles often burst rather than deflate slowly, the last section of the book studies the crash of October 1987 as well as other crashes of national equity markets due to the Persian gulf crisis.

Robustness

Robustness
Author: Lars Peter Hansen
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 453
Release: 2016-06-28
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691170975

The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.

Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices

Dynamic Trading and Asset Prices
Author: Giovanni Cespa
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2009
Genre: Assets (Accounting)
ISBN:

We investigate the dynamics of prices, information and expectations in a competitive, noisy, dynamic asset pricing equilibrium model. We show that prices are farther away from (closer to) fundamentals compared with average expectations if and only if traders over- (under-) rely on public information with respect to optimal statistical weights. Both phenomena, in turn, occur whenever traders speculate on short-run price movements. For a given, positive level of residual payoff uncertainty, over-reliance on public information obtains if noise trade displays low persistence. This defines a "Keynesian" region; the complementary region is "Hayekian" in that prices are systematically closer to fundamentals than average expectations. The standard case of no residual uncertainty and noise trading following a random walk is on the frontier of the two regions and identifies the set of deep parameters for which traders abide by Keynes' dictum of concentrating on an asset "long term prospects and those only." The analysis explains accommodation and trend chasing strategies as well as momentum and reversal.