Uncertainty and the Price for Crude Oil Reserves

Uncertainty and the Price for Crude Oil Reserves
Author: Donald Larson
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 1999
Genre:
ISBN:

September 1996 Returns to storage for crude oil reserves contain both a cost-reducing component (consistent with Kaldor's original notion of convenience) and often sizable premiums associated with the dispersion of petroleum prices. Innovations in futures, options, and derivative instruments permit active trading, speculating, and hedging - linking markets for physical petroleum products with financial markets. These derivative markets continuously value petroleum delivered today and for future dates, thus providing a market price for inventories. Underground petroleum reserves are also an inventory defined by exploration surveys and development drilling. As a result, observable market information can be used to value these reserves. Option-valuation models can be used to price reserves using observable markets, but are dependent on unexplained convenience yields revealed by the term structure of futures prices. Considine and Larson apply a general model of inventory pricing to petroleum inventories and generate an empirical model of the returns to storage for petroleum markets. They examine the determinants of the convenience yield for crude oil using a stochastic control model. They specify optimal production and inventory conditions using a third-order cost function and estimate them using monthly observations. Their inventory arbitrage condition embodies the Hotelling principle and Kaldor's convenience yield, and includes a premium on the dispersion in crude oil prices. The empirical results suggest that returns to storage contain both a cost-reducing component (consistent with Kaldor's original notion of convenience) and often sizable premiums associated with the dispersion of petroleum prices. Their findings suggest that crude oil markets differentiated by quality and location provide similar premiums. The premiums associated with the dispersion of petroleum prices may account for persistent backwardation in crude oil prices. This finding may also explain the wide discrepancies between Hotelling values and transaction prices found in previous studies. This paper - a product of the Commodity Policy and Analysis Unit, International Economics Department - is part of a larger effort in the department to further the understanding of resource pricing and commodity markets. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Uncertainty and the Price of Crude Oil Reserves (RPO 679-23).

Crude Oil

Crude Oil
Author: Jim Wells
Publisher: DIANE Publishing
Total Pages: 82
Release: 2007-08
Genre:
ISBN: 9781422315767

The U.S. economy depends heavily on oil, particularly in the transportation sector. World oil production has been running at near capacity to meet demand, pushing prices upward. Concerns about meeting increasing demand with finite resources have renewed interest in an old question: How long can the oil supply expand before reaching a maximum level of production -- a peak -- from which it can only decline? The author: (1) examined when oil production could peak; (2) assessed the potential for transportation technologies to mitigate the consequences of a peak in oil production; & (3) examined fed. agency efforts that could reduce uncertainty about the timing of a peak or mitigate the consequences. Includes recommendations. Charts & tables.

Reserve Volume Under Oil Price Uncertainty

Reserve Volume Under Oil Price Uncertainty
Author: Marco Antonio Dias
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2023
Genre:
ISBN:

Volumes of oil reserves are important indicators of energy availability in the future since it is still the world's main source of energy. In this paper, we estimate the oil reserve volume under oil price uncertainty using the traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) and the real options theory (ROT). Adopted by oil companies and regulators, DCF uses expected cash flow to report the cumulative oil production (reserves) up to the end of the field's economic life (abandonment). ROT considers the value of waiting for better market conditions in each oil price scenario. For the expected volume computation with the abandonment option, we introduce pruned Pascal's algorithm to assess the probability of continuing to produce in any node from the binomial tree. Ex-post, the ROT abandonment rule implies greater reserve volume because it considers the value of waiting for a better oil price before exercising the abandonment option. However, ex-ante, we found that DCF is optimistic about the reserve volume when compared with the ROT approach, except for mature fields (where DCF is pessimistic). If we regard the ROT as the most rigorous, it means that the new oilfields reported reserves with DCF are optimistic.

Beyond Market Assumptions: Oil Price as a Global Institution

Beyond Market Assumptions: Oil Price as a Global Institution
Author: Andrei V. Belyi
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 196
Release: 2020-03-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3030290891

This book defines oil price as a social institution that exists beyond supply-demand mechanisms. Discussing oil markets in the context of the broader sociology of prices, it covers a number of theoretical and practical dimensions, such as new market uncertainties and trends, and social perceptions of energy security and of power. Further, based on case studies it explores the implications for OPEC, Russia, and Central and Eastern Europe, as well as for the energy transition and for international investment arbitration. Featuring contributions from leading academics, researchers and business professionals, the book offers an interdisciplinary perspective on the oil price. “This book brings together an impressive team of scholars with fresh perspectives on the oil price. Even as the world attempts energy transition, oil consumption continues and the oil price is likely to become even more unpredictable and unclear than in the past. This book helps make sense of this challenging topic.” -Indra Overland is a Research Professor and Head of Centre for Energy Research, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI) “A revealing and multidimensional analysis of oil price fluctuations in a market that seeks less uncertainty. This book discusses market and price evolution in the context of market theories, history and real-time market analysis. A welcome and timely contribution to our understanding of global energy markets.” Dr. Sara Vakhshouri is Founder and President of SVB Energy International and Professor of Energy Security at the Institute of World Politics.

Oil Price Uncertainty

Oil Price Uncertainty
Author: Apostolos Serletis
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated
Total Pages: 142
Release: 2012
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9789814390675

The relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental issue in macroeconomics. There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether positive oil price shocks cause recessions in the United States (and other oil-importing countries), and although there exists a vast empirical literature that investigates the effects of oil price shocks, there are relatively few studies that investigate the direct effects of uncertainty about oil prices on the real economy. The book uses recent advances in macroeconomics and financial economics to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and uncertainty about the price of oil on the level of economic activity.

Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices

Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices
Author: Mr.Aasim M. Husain
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 41
Release: 2015-07-14
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513532413

The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.