Uncertainties And Limitations In Simulating Tropical Cyclones
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| Author | : Asuka Suzuki-Parker |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 89 |
| Release | : 2012-01-05 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 3642250297 |
The thesis work was in two major parts: development and testing of a new approach to detecting and tracking tropical cyclones in climate models; and application of an extreme value statistical approach to enable assessment of changes in weather extremes from climate models. The tracking algorithm applied a creative phase-space approach to differentiate between modeled tropical cyclones and their mid-latitude cousins. A feature here was the careful attention to sensitivity to choice of selection parameters, which is considerable. The major finding was that the changes over time were relatively insensitive to these details. This new approach will improve and add confidence to future assessments of climate impacts on hurricanes. The extremes approach utilized the Generalized Pareto Distribution (one of the standard approaches to statistics of extremes) applied to present and future hurricane distributions as modeled by a regional climate model, then applied the changes to current observations to extract the changes in the extremes. Since climate models cannot resolve these extremes directly, this provides an excellent method of determining weather extremes in general. This is of considerable societal importance as we are most vulnerable to such extremes and knowledge of their changes enables improved planning and adaptation strategies.
| Author | : Asuka Suzuki-Parker |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 89 |
| Release | : 2012-01-05 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 3642250289 |
The thesis work was in two major parts: development and testing of a new approach to detecting and tracking tropical cyclones in climate models; and application of an extreme value statistical approach to enable assessment of changes in weather extremes from climate models. The tracking algorithm applied a creative phase-space approach to differentiate between modeled tropical cyclones and their mid-latitude cousins. A feature here was the careful attention to sensitivity to choice of selection parameters, which is considerable. The major finding was that the changes over time were relatively insensitive to these details. This new approach will improve and add confidence to future assessments of climate impacts on hurricanes. The extremes approach utilized the Generalized Pareto Distribution (one of the standard approaches to statistics of extremes) applied to present and future hurricane distributions as modeled by a regional climate model, then applied the changes to current observations to extract the changes in the extremes. Since climate models cannot resolve these extremes directly, this provides an excellent method of determining weather extremes in general. This is of considerable societal importance as we are most vulnerable to such extremes and knowledge of their changes enables improved planning and adaptation strategies.
| Author | : Zhong Zhong |
| Publisher | : World Scientific |
| Total Pages | : 265 |
| Release | : 2018-02-01 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 9813232080 |
This book studies the pitfalls of regional climate models in simulating track and intensity of tropical cyclone over western North Pacific for the East Asian summer monsoon climate.A number of sensitivity experiments related to tropical cyclone simulation with different model configurations and model physical schemes, including model resolution, model lateral boundary condition, effect of sea surface temperature, cumulus parameterization scheme and model microphysics scheme, as well as the features and the failure of tropical cyclone simulation in regional climate models were carefully analyzed with model output with high temporal resolution, to investigate shortcomings of the models, so as to come up with better models to simulate and study tropical cyclone track and intensity.The book is suitable for graduate students in meteorology with focuses in the tropical cyclone simulation, as well as professionals devoted to model development and study of tropical cyclone activities.
| Author | : Andrew Robertson |
| Publisher | : Elsevier |
| Total Pages | : 588 |
| Release | : 2018-10-19 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 012811715X |
The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. - Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications - Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field - Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making - Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
| Author | : Vasubandhu Misra |
| Publisher | : Elsevier |
| Total Pages | : 342 |
| Release | : 2020-04-08 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0128218274 |
Regionalizing Global Climate Variations: A Study of the Southeastern US Regional Climate provides a framework for understanding regional climate in light of the many assessment reports being released regularly by international organizations. The book emphasizes global climate variations to explore the concept of the regionalization of those variations. Focusing on the climate of the Southeastern United States as a lens, it provides a template for targeting regional climate change in the context of global variability. It includes coverage of weather extremes, such as tornadoes, cyclones, and drought, and approaches the subject from a holistic perspective, including atmospheric, oceanic, and land components. The Southeastern United States is a particularly relevant case study, given the fact that it is the largest quarter of the United States and has the most coastlines, often resulting in a higher number of extreme weather events. This practical approach to understanding climate at the regional/local scale makes the book a valuable resource for students and researchers in Meteorology, Climate Science, Oceanography, Environmental Science, and other applied sectors. - Includes descriptions of the morphology of weather extremes such as tropical cyclones and tornadoes - Discusses the influence of climate change on weather extremes - Presents a holistic or interdisciplinary approach to understanding regional climate that includes features of atmospheric science, meteorology, oceanography, and hydrology
| Author | : Anthony Lupo |
| Publisher | : BoD – Books on Demand |
| Total Pages | : 160 |
| Release | : 2020-11-04 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 1838803610 |
This book highlights some of the most recent research in the climatological behavior of tropical cyclones as well as the dynamics, predictability, and character of these storms as derived using remote sensing techniques. Also included in this book is a review of the interaction between tropical cyclones and coastal ocean dynamics in the Northwest Pacific and an evaluation of the performance of CMIP6 models in replicating the current climate using accumulated cyclone energy. The latter demonstrates how the climate may change in the future. This book can be a useful resource for those studying the character of these storms, especially those with the goal of anticipating their future occurrence in both the short and climatological range and their associated hazards.
| Author | : Johnny C L Chan |
| Publisher | : World Scientific |
| Total Pages | : 445 |
| Release | : 2010-04-30 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 9814465828 |
This book is a completely rewritten, updated and expanded new edition of the original Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones published in 1995. It presents a comprehensive review of the state of science and forecasting of tropical cyclones together with the application of this science to disaster mitigation, hence the tag: From Science to Mitigation.Since the previous volume, enormous progress in understanding tropical cyclones has been achieved. These advances range from the theoretical through to ever more sophisticated computer modeling, all underpinned by a vast and growing range of observations from airborne, space and ocean observation platforms. The growth in observational capability is reflected by the inclusion of three new chapters on this topic. The chapter on the effects of climate change on tropical cyclone activity is also new, and appropriate given the recent intense debate on this issue. The advances in the understanding of tropical cyclones which have led to significant improvements in forecasting track, intensity, rainfall and storm surge, are reviewed in detail over three chapters. For the first time, a chapter on seasonal prediction is included. The book concludes with an important chapter on disaster mitigation, which is timely given the enormous loss of life in recent tropical cyclone disasters.World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather and Climate is indexed in SCOPUS.
| Author | : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine |
| Publisher | : National Academies Press |
| Total Pages | : 187 |
| Release | : 2016-07-28 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 0309380979 |
As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
| Author | : Kenji Satake |
| Publisher | : World Scientific |
| Total Pages | : 109 |
| Release | : 2012 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 9814405671 |
This invaluable volume set of Advances in Geosciences continues the excellent tradition of the Asia-Oceania scientific community in providing the most up-to-date research results on a wide range of geosciences and environmental science. The information is vital to the understanding of the effects of climate change and extreme weather on the most populated regions and fastest moving economies in the world. Besides, these volumes also highlight original papers from many prestigious research institutions which are conducting cutting-edge studies in atmospheric physics, hydrogical science and water resource, ocean science and coastal study, planetary exploration and solar system science, seismology, tsunamis, upper atmospheric physics and space science.
| Author | : Yassine Charabi |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 355 |
| Release | : 2010-01-19 |
| Genre | : Science |
| ISBN | : 904813109X |
Tropical cyclones are topic that is not appropriately known to the public at large, but climate change has been on the public’s mind since the last decade and a concern that has peaked in the new millennium. Like the television programs of Jean Yves Cousteau the ‘plight of the oceans’, have recent documentaries nurtured a conscio- ness that major climatological changes are in the offing, even have started to develop. The retreat of glaciers on mountain tops and in Polar Regions is ‘being seen’ on ‘the small screen’ and has favored an environmental awareness in all populations that are enjoying an average well-being on Planet Earth. The vivid images on screen of storms, floods, and tsunamis share the fear provoking landscapes of deforestation, desertification and the like. Watching such as this one is seen are voices warning of what over is ‘in store’ if the causative problems are not remedied. Talking and d- cussing are useful, but action must follow. Understanding the full ramifications of climate change on tropical cyclones is a task that will takes several decades. In Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a high probability of major changes in tropical cyclone activity across the various ocean basins is highlighted.
