Two Essays on Sell Side Equity Analysts

Two Essays on Sell Side Equity Analysts
Author: Haosi Chen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 110
Release: 2018
Genre: Financial services industry
ISBN:

This dissertation examines the role of sell side equity analysts in the capital market. The first chapter examines whether sell side analysts, who as an important information intermediary, process information that has been shown to predict future stock returns by academic studies. Our sample includes seven firm level characteristics (e.g., anomalies) that have robust return predictability. We test whether analysts' consensus recommendation and expected returns are consistent with the trading strategies these anomaly variables prescribe. We do not find evidence that sell side analysts are persistently incorporating such information in the correct way. Instead, analysts from certain brokerage firms persistently issue target prices in the opposite direction as what anomaly variables suggests. Our findings suggest that analysts are likely subject to biased expectations and could improve their research quality by incorporating anomaly characteristics. The second chapter investigates whether institutional investors value sell side analysts' qualities differently. We fill the gap in the literature with a novel hand collected dataset, which shows the best sell side analysts voted by hedge funds and institutional investors, respectively. Examining the research output of investors' revealed preferences allows us to detect the qualities valued by these investors. We find that hedge funds preferred analysts update research more frequently and issue less optimistic stock recommendations. The recommendations revised by these analysts also receive stronger market response in the subsequent six months than those made by other "All-Star" sell side analysts. These findings suggest that there are cross sectional differences among sell side analysts that are associated with clients' needs.

Two Essays on the Sell-side Financial Analysts

Two Essays on the Sell-side Financial Analysts
Author: Liu, Xi
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

In the first essay titled "The Information Role of Analysts' Contrarian Revisions," I study a special group of revisions: contrarian revisions, defined as recommendation changes that are inconsistent with sizable stock price movements during the past week. I find that contrarian revisions are relatively more informative than trending revisions. In particular, contrarian revisions are associated with a both statistically and economically larger post-announcement drift. I also find contrarian downgrades are less likely to be issued by all-star analysts and analysts with more experience. After implementation of Regulation RD, the market reaction to contrarian revisions issued by all-stars significantly decreases, indicating private information contained in contrarian recommendations has declined. Overall, our results suggest analyst recommendations are important information sources for market participants. In the second essay titled "Market Reaction to Earnings When Investors Disagree," I investigate how the divergence of opinions between individual and institutional investors affects stock price movements around public news events, specifically earnings announcements. I use a discrete static market equilibrium model to illustrate that divergence of investors' opinions has a significant impact on stock price movements around earnings announcements. Specifically, the divergence of opinion has a negative relation with the immediate market reaction but a positive relation with the subsequent stock price drift. I also investigate trading volume around earnings announcements to explore how traders respond to changes in the divergence of investors' opinions. Empirical evidence supports the model implications and indicates announcement trading volume decreases inversely to the divergence of opinions.

Essays on Sell-Side Analysts

Essays on Sell-Side Analysts
Author: Sang-Mook Lee
Publisher:
Total Pages: 98
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

Broadly, this study focuses on roles of sell-side analysts and examines the determinants and consequences of information discovery and stock timing roles by sell-side analysts. We also re-examine reiterations of prior recommendations by sell-side analysts. In Chapter 1, the contribution is to document that analysts add value by engaging in discovery of private information and this value addition is greater than that due to interpretation of public news or stock timing. The innovation in this Chapter is to read over 3,700 analyst reports from Investext and explicitly identify whether the report contains discovery, interpretation, and/or timing. Analysts discover new information by talking to management sources (personal meetings, investor meetings, and conference calls) or non-management sources (such as channel checks). We find that information discovery is prevalent in 17% of the reports. The cumulative abnormal return (CAR) for reports containing discovery are 6.3% for upgrades and -10.6% for downgrades. The CARs are higher for reports containing discovery relative to those containing interpretation or timing. We find that economic determinants predict whether a report will contain discovery. Discovery from management sources is more likely for reports in the pre-Reg FD period and for reports by optimistic analysts. Discovery from non-management sources is more likely for reports written by All-Star analysts, and for firms that have high information asymmetry and those that are followed by more analysts. In Chapter 2, the contribution is to introduce and document a third role that analysts play that is also valuable to investors, which we term "stock timing." Specifically, we define a timing report as one where the analyst revises his recommendation but does not revise the Price Target or any of the 23 fundamental drivers of stock price (such as EPS, FCF) tracked by I/B/E/S. Because the analyst maintains the same price target as in his prior report but still revises his recommendation, such timing calls are contrarian valuation calls. Analysts issue timing downgrades (upgrades) in response to price increases (declines) since the release of their prior report on the firm. 30% of all revisions are timing reports, indicating the importance of the timing role played by analysts. If analysts have timing ability, then markets should react to the release of the timing report and we should observe that economic determinants explain the cross-sectional variation in timing ability. We find the 3-day announcement return is over 2% in magnitude, 62% of the reports are winners (have announcement returns that have the correct sign), 10% of the reports are large enough to be considered influential, and 37% of the reports are persistent winners. These results suggest that analysts have timing ability. The ability to time is similar is magnitude to information interpretation but smaller compared to information discovery. We find considerable cross-sectional and time-series variation in timing ability. We find that the probability of issuing a timing report is positively related to the opportunities to time the stock provided by potential mispricing. Conditional on issuing a timing report, the probability of issuing a winner, an influential winner, or a persistent winner is positively related to analyst experience and negatively related to the costs associated with issuing a timing report. In Chapter 3, we document that recommendation reiterations are not homogeneous and there is a large subset of reiterations that are as much valued by investors as recommendation revisions. We combine Detail History file containing the measures tracked by I/B/E/S (Price Target, EPS, etc.) and Recommendation file to create the full time series of recommendations (initiations, reiterations, and revisions) made by each analyst for each firm for 14 years from 1999 to 2012. By adopting a modified version of "filling in the holes" method, we find that recommendation reiterations are prevalent, consisting of about 80% of recommendations for our 14-year sample period. Second, market response to recommendation reiterations increases monotonically from Reiteration: Strong Sell to Reiteration: Strong Buy. Third, reiterations coupled with contemporary changes in price targets and/or earning forecasts bring substantial absolute abnormal stock returns to investors. Lastly, when we replicate what Loh and Stulz (2011), we find that the number of reiterations which are influential is more than twice that of recommendation revisions that are influential.

3 ESSAYS ON EQUITY ANALYSTS AG

3 ESSAYS ON EQUITY ANALYSTS AG
Author: Zhelei Li
Publisher: Open Dissertation Press
Total Pages: 160
Release: 2017-01-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781360996530

This dissertation, "Three Essays on Equity Analysts' Agent Role and Investor Inattention" by Zhelei, Li, 李哲磊, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: This thesis includes two essays on equity analysts' agent role and one essay on investors' inattention to good news. From a broader economic perspective, equity analysts are essentially agents acting on behalf of multiple principals including their employers, investors and issuers (Fisch & Sale, 2003). Classic agency theory predicts that analysts selectively provide coverage and report their expectations. In the first essay, I examine empirically if incremental investment value can be uncovered from analysts' choices between silence and speech, measured as the level of analyst reporting not explained by size or turnover. I find that "silence" negatively, and "speech" positively predicts future stock returns. More importantly, as "speech is silver, silence is golden," the observed price shift is mainly driven by silence, providing evidence that analysts' inaction can impede price discovery process. This is consistent with the claims that analysts' expectations are based on valid information, that analyst self-selection is pervasive due to the principal-agent conflicts, and that the loss of information with analyst silence has resulted in some mis-valuation which can be viewed as a form of classic agency cost. The second essay tests if analysts are systematically less forthcoming in reporting bad earnings news when the principal-agent conflicts are exacerbated. I find that analysts' downward consensus earnings forecast revisions are less informative than their upward revisions; that less is more when analysts report bad news - extreme downward revisions contain little incremental information beyond momentum compared with moderate downward revisions; and that the differential richness of information in good and bad news revisions is more pronounced among bigger, more heavily covered stocks and stocks with higher institutional holdings, namely, stocks that are typically more prone to the analyst agency problem. Thus the loss of information in bad news revisions and extreme bad news revisions' lagging behind price action can be viewed as another form of agency cost. In the third essay, I investigate how negativity bias in information processing affects the positive-negative-asymmetry in the stock price continuation phenomenon. Psychology literature document that negative stimuli elicit more attention and negative information is generally processed more thoroughly and is weighed more heavily in impression formation, memory, learning and decision making than positive information (Baumeister, Bratslavsky, Finkenauer, & Vohs, 2001; Rozin & Royzman, 2001). Insofar as people are cognitive misers, all else being equal, investors tend to pay less attention to good news than to bad news. Using earnings announcement as the information shock, I document evidences that investors incorporate bad earnings news to fuller extent than they do with good earnings news. Furthermore, given that psychological biases are typically increased when there is more uncertainty (Hirshleifer, 2001) and ambiguity or uncertainty is often associated with higher risk and the possibility of hostile manipulation, I also find more pronounced asymmetry in post announcement drift when information uncertainty is greater. DOI: 10.5353/th_b5066225 Subjects: Investment analysis Stocks - Psychological aspects

Best Practices for Equity Research (PB)

Best Practices for Equity Research (PB)
Author: James Valentine
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
Total Pages: 465
Release: 2011-01-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0071736395

The first real-world guide for training equity research analysts—from a Morgan Stanley veteran Addresses the dearth of practical training materials for research analysts in the U.S. and globally Valentine managed a department of 70 analysts and 100 associates at Morgan Stanley and developed new programs for over 500 employees around the globe He will promote the book through his company's extensive outreach capabilities

Three Essays on Security Analysts

Three Essays on Security Analysts
Author: Roger K. Loh
Publisher:
Total Pages: 153
Release: 2008
Genre: Business analysts
ISBN:

Abstract: I examine the role of sell-side security analysts in financial markets. The first essay addresses the stylized fact that investors' reaction to stock recommendations is often incomplete so that there is a predictable post-recommendation drift. I investigate whether investor inattention contributes to this drift by using turnover as a proxy for attention. I find that the recommendation drift of firms with low prior turnover is more than double in magnitude compared to that of firms with high prior turnover. Volume reactions around the recommendation show that investors fail to react promptly to recommendations issued on low attention stocks. Together, the evidence suggests that investor inattention is a plausible explanation for investors' underreaction to stock recommendations. The second essay studies conflict of interests in analyst research. Analyst research is alleged to be biased because analysts' employers underwrite securities for the firms covered. I argue that this analyst affiliation bias should be strongest for firms with a desire to over-inflate stock prices. Using stock recommendations data, I find that the analyst affiliation bias is on average pervasive across all firms in the bull-market years of 1994-2000. In the regulatory reform years of 2001-2006, only poorly governed firms, firms whose CEO wealth is highly sensitive to stock price, and negative prior return firms continue to exhibit the affiliation bias while the bias mostly disappears for all other firms. Examining the market's reaction around stock recommendations shows that the market does not sufficiently discount the fact that affiliated analyst optimism is more serious for some firms. The third essay investigates the market's response to trends and reversals in earnings surprises where earnings surprises are defined as firms' reported earnings less analysts' consensus forecasts. Trends are defined as consecutive same-signed earnings surprises while reversals occur when the sign of the most recent surprise differs from the prior surprises. I find significantly stronger return drift following trends than reversals. In comparison to reversals, trends are associated with greater predictability in subsequent analyst forecast revisions. These results are inconsistent with representativeness and conservatism causing return drift and could be consistent with the gambler's fallacy in Rabin (2002).

Confessions of a Wall Street Analyst

Confessions of a Wall Street Analyst
Author: Dan Reingold
Publisher: Harper Collins
Total Pages: 372
Release: 2009-10-13
Genre: Biography & Autobiography
ISBN: 0061740772

Here is the true story of a top Wall Street player's transformation from a straight-arrow believer to a jaded cynic, who reveals how Wall Street's insider game is really played. Dan Reingold was a top Wall Street analyst for fourteen years and Salomon Smith Barney analyst Jack Grubman's chief competitor in the red-hot sector of telecom. Reingold was part of the "Street" and believed in it. But in this action-packed, highly personal memoir written with accomplished Fast Company senior writer Jennifer Reingold the author describes how his enthusiasm gave way to disgust as he learned how deeply corrupted Wall Street and much of corporate America had become during the roaring stock market bubble of the 1990s. Confessions of a Wall Street Analyst provides a front-row seat at one of the most dramatic -- and ultimately tragic -- periods in financial history. Reingold recounts his introduction to the world of Wall Street leaks and secret deal-making; his experiences with corporate fraud; and Wall Street's alarming penchant for lavish spending and multimillion-dollar pay packages. Reingold spars with arch rival Grubman; fends off intense pressures from Wall Street bankers and corporate CEOs; and is wooed by Morgan Stanley's CEO, John Mack, and CSFB's über-banker Frank Quattrone. Reingold describes instances in which confidential deals are whispered days before their official announcement. He recalls the moment he learns that Bernie Ebbers's WorldCom was massively cooking its books. And he is shocked to have been an unwitting catalyst for a series of sexually explicit e-mails that would rock Wall Street; bring Jack Grubman to his knees; and contribute to the stepping aside of Grubman's boss, Citigroup CEO Sandy Weill. Some of Reingold's stories are outrageous, others hilarious, and many are simply absurd. But, together, they provide a sobering exposé of Wall Street: a jungle of greed and ego, a place brimming with conflicts and inside information, and a business absurdly out of touch with the Main Street it claims to serve. He shows how government investigators, headlines notwithstanding, never got to the heart of the ethical and legal transgressions of the era. And how they completely overlooked Wall Street's pervasive use of inside information, leaving investors -- even sophisticated professionals -- cheated. The book ends with a series of important policy recommendations to clean up the investing business. In the tradition of Liar's Poker and Den of Thieves, Confessions of a Wall Street Analyst is a no-holds-barred insider's account that will open the eyes of every investor.

Wall Street Research

Wall Street Research
Author: Boris Groysberg
Publisher: Stanford University Press
Total Pages: 200
Release: 2013-08-07
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0804787123

Wall Street Research: Past, Present, and Future provides a timely account of the dramatic evolution of Wall Street research, examining its rise, fall, and reemergence. Despite regulatory, technological, and global forces that have transformed equity research in the last ten years, the industry has proven to be remarkably resilient and consistent. Boris Groysberg and Paul M. Healy get to the heart of Wall Street research—the analysts engaged in the process—and demonstrate how the analysts' roles have evolved, what drives their performance today, and how they stack up against their buy-side counterparts. The book unpacks key trends and describes how different firms have coped with shifting pressures. It concludes with an assessment of where equity research is headed in emerging markets, drawing conclusions about this often overlooked corner of Wall Street and the industry's future challenges.

Two Essays on Stock Markets

Two Essays on Stock Markets
Author: Wei Dong
Publisher: Open Dissertation Press
Total Pages:
Release: 2017-01-26
Genre:
ISBN: 9781361322192

This dissertation, "Two Essays on Stock Markets" by Wei, Dong, 董炜, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract:  This thesis contains two pieces of empirical study on market efficiency. The first essay tests the semi-strong form of market efficiency in the U.S. We use sell-side analyst target prices as publically available information and test the performance of a mean-variance optimized portfolio which is based on the Treynor and Black model. We focus on constituents of S&P 500 index as our sample universe. During the period of beck-testing from 2004 to 2010, we find that the dynamically rebalanced portfolio beats the market in 6 out of 7 years and that the strategy generates significant risk-adjusted abnormal returns. In the second essay we study the post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD) phenomenon, a well-documented market anomaly, on the French stock market. Our empirical study devises a difference-in-difference policy experiment to test if trading activities by individual investors contribute to the magnitude of PEAD. We exploit a recent policy reform on the French stock market, which significantly increased speculative trading costs of individual investors and reduced their trading activities. The impact of reform is found twice as large on individual contrarian traders than momentum traders. Using a group of unaffected stocks to control for potential non-experimental factors, we find magnitude of PEAD dropped significantly after the reform in the experimented group but not in the experimented group but not in the control group. DOI: 10.5353/th_b5066221 Subjects: Stock exchanges Efficient market theory