Travelers' Route Choice Behavior in Risky Networks

Travelers' Route Choice Behavior in Risky Networks
Author: Hengliang Tian
Publisher:
Total Pages: 83
Release: 2013
Genre: Automobile drivers
ISBN:

The accurate modeling of travelers route choice decision making when faced with unreliable (risky) travel times is necessary for the assessment of policies aimed at improving travel time reliability. Two major objectives are studied in this thesis. The first objective is to evaluate the applicability of a process model to route choice under risk where the actual process of decision making is captured. Traditionally, we adopt "as-if" econometric models to predict peoples route choice decisions. The second objective is to investigate travelers capability to incorporate future real-time traffic information into their current route choice decision making. Two separate stated preference (SP) surveys were conducted for each objective. The first SP survey used an interactive map in a computer based test. The second SP survey used a full-scale high-fidelity driving simulator. Compared with econometric models, process models have been rarely investigated in travel decision making under risk. A process model aims to describe the actual decision making procedure and could potentially provide a better explanation to route choice behavior. A process model, Priority Heuristic (PH), developed by Brandstatter et al. (2006) is introduced to the travel choice context and its probabilistic version, Probabilistic Priority Heuristic (PPH), is developed and estimated in this study. With data collected from a stated preference (SP) survey which is based on an animated computer interface, one econometric model, Rank-Dependent Expected Utility (RDEU) model, and two other alternative models were compared with the PPH model in a cross validation test to investigate their data-fitting and predictive performance. Our results show that the PPH model outperforms the RDEU model in both data-fitting and predictive performance. This suggests that the process modeling paradigm could be a promising new area in travel behavior research. With the advance of information and telecommunication technology, real-time traffic information is increasingly more available to help travelers make informed route choice decisions when faced with unreliable travel times. A strategic route choice refers to a decision taking into account future diversion possibilities at downstream nodes based on real-time information not yet available at the time of decision-making. Based on the data collected from a driving simulator experiment and a matching PCbased experiment, a mixed Logit model with two latent classes, strategic and nonstrategic route choice, is specified and estimated. The estimates of the latent class probabilities show that a significant portion of route choice decisions are strategic and subjects can learn to make more strategic route choice as they have more experience with the decision scenarios. Non-parametric tests additionally show that network complexity adversely affects travelers strategic thinking ability in a driving simulator environment but not in a PC environment and a parallel driving task only affects strategic thinking ability in a difficult scenario but not a simple one. In addition, we find that peoples strategic thinking ability are influenced by their gender and driving experience (mileage) in the non-parametric analysis, but not in the modeling work. These findings suggest that a realistic route choice model with real-time traffic information should consider both strategic and non-strategic behavior, which vary with the characteristics of both the network and the driver.

Route Choice: Wayfinding in Transport Networks

Route Choice: Wayfinding in Transport Networks
Author: P.H. Bovy
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 318
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Social Science
ISBN: 9400906331

With the ever increasing number of opportunities, in every aspect of modem life, making choices becomes part of our daily routine. It is thus only natural that social scientists have started to study human choice behavior. Early efforts focused on modeling aggregate choice patterns of home buyers, shoppers, travelers, and others. Later studies, aiming to achieve more realistic results, have concentrated on simula ting disaggregate behavior. The most recent approach in choice research is the so-called Discrete Choice Modeling. It is a front-line area mainly in contemporary transportation, geography, and behavioral research. It focuses on individuals' decision-making processes regarding the choice of destinations, modes, departure times, and routes. Considerable research has been done on identifying and quantify ing the general rules governing the individuals' choice behavior, but to the best of our knowledge there is no single book that solely deals with route choice. The study of travelers' route choice in networks is primarily oriented towards gaining insight into their spatial choice behavior. How do people choose routes in a network, what do they know, what do they look for, which road characteristics playa role? On the basis of this information it is possible to design quantitative models aimed at predicting the use of routes dependent on the characteristics of the routes, those of the surrounding environment, and those of the travelers. In this way, traffic flows in the network can be calculated and the network performance can be evaluated.

Value of Travel-time Reliability

Value of Travel-time Reliability
Author: Carlos Carrion-Madera
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2011
Genre: Route choice
ISBN:

Travel-time variability is a noteworthy factor in network performance. It measures the temporal uncertainty experienced by users in their movement between any two nodes in a network. The importance of the time variance depends on the penalties incurred by the users. In road networks, travelers consider the existence of this journey uncertainty in their selection of routes. This choice process takes into account travel-time variability and other characteristics of the travelers and the road network. In this complex behavioral response, a feasible decision is spawned based on not only the amalgamation of attributes, but also on the experience travelers incurred from previous situations. Over the past several years, the analysis of these behavioral responses (travelers' route choices) to fluctuations in travel-time variability has become a central topic in transportation research. These have generally been based on theoretical approaches built upon Wardropian equilibrium, or empirical formulations using Random Utility Theory. This report focuses on the travel behavior of commuters using Interstate 394 (I-394) and the swapping (bridge) choice behavior of commuters crossing the Mississippi River in Minneapolis. The inferences of this report are based on collected Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking data and accompanying surveys. Furthermore, it also employs two distinct approaches (estimation of Value of Reliability [VOR] and econometric modeling with travelers' intrapersonal data) in order to analyze the behavioral responses of two distinct sets of subjects in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul (Twin Cities) area.

LISS2019

LISS2019
Author: Juliang Zhang
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 965
Release: 2020-07-10
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9811556822

This book focuses on AI and data-driven technical and management innovations in logistics, informatics and services. The respective papers analyze in detail the latest fundamental advances in the state of the art and practice of logistics, informatics, service operations and service science. The book gathers the outcomes of the “9th International Conference on Logistics, Informatics and Service Sciences,” which was held at the University of Maryland, USA.

ICT for Transport

ICT for Transport
Author: Nikolas Thomopoulos
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 337
Release: 2015-05-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1783471298

Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) are rapidly evolving and taking centre stage in everyday life in the 21st century alongside the increasing importance and value of information. This is particularly evident in the transport sector where

Understanding Travelers' Route Choice Behavior Under Uncertainty

Understanding Travelers' Route Choice Behavior Under Uncertainty
Author: Nikhil Sikka
Publisher:
Total Pages: 150
Release: 2012
Genre: Automobile drivers
ISBN:

The overall goal of this research is to measure drivers' attitudes towards uncertain and unreliable routes. The route choice modeling is done within the discrete choice modeling framework and involved use of stated preference data. The first set of analysis elicits travelers' attitudes towards unreliable routes. The results of the analysis provide useful information in relation to how commuters value the occurrence/chances of experiencing delay days on their routes. The frequency of days with unexpected delays also measures the travel time reliability in a way that is easy to understand by day-to-day commuters. As such, behaviorally more realistic values are obtained from this analysis in order to capture travelers' attitudes towards reliability. Then, we model attitudes toward travel time uncertainty using non-expected utility theories within the random utility framework. Unlike previous studies that only include risk attitudes, we incorporate attitudes toward ambiguity too, where drivers are assumed to have imperfect knowledge of travel times. To this end, we formulated non-linear logit models capable of embedding probability weighting, and risk/ambiguity attitudes. A more realistic willingness to pay structure is then derived which takes into account travel time uncertainty and behavioral attitudes. Finally, we present a conceptual framework to use a descriptive utility theory, i.e. cumulative prospect theory in forecasting the demand for a variable tolled lane. We have highlighted the issues that arise when a prescriptive model of behavior is applied to forecast demand for a tolled lane.

Linear and Non-Linear Financial Econometrics

Linear and Non-Linear Financial Econometrics
Author: Mehmet Terzioğlu
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
Total Pages: 339
Release: 2021-03-17
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1839624868

The importance of experimental economics and econometric methods increases with each passing day as data quality and software performance develops. New econometric models are developed by diverging from earlier cliché econometric models with the emergence of specialized fields of study. This book, which is expected to be an extensive and useful reference by bringing together some of the latest developments in the field of econometrics, also contains quantitative examples and problem sets. We thank all the authors who contributed to this book with their studies that provide extensive and accessible explanations of the existing econometric methods.