Trading With Uncertainty
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| Author | : Gerald Ashley |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 188 |
| Release | : 2005-08-05 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0470864702 |
In this entertaining and thoughtful book, Gerald Ashley sets out to explain what trading is, and lays out a modus operandi for being a trader and investor. He draws upon market anecdotes and examples from the past, seeking to debunk many myths surrounding financial markets, and to try and make the reader understand the real processes, risks and rewards that drive investment. In particular he examines ideas in market and individual investor behaviour, and questions the usefulness of many of todays standard investment techniques including benchmarks, charts, analysts and 'gurus'. He also lays out simple precepts for understanding investment risk and suggests ideas for managing your investments in today's markets.
| Author | : Francois Trahan |
| Publisher | : John Wiley & Sons |
| Total Pages | : 228 |
| Release | : 2011-07-13 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1118134095 |
Macroeconomic Investment Strategies for an Era of Economic Uncertainty “Over the years, François’ insightful analyses of the business cycle has led to market calls that have both benefitted investors on the upside and (more important to many) protected them from losses on the downside. François’ incredible track record in successfully interpreting the trends that can be found in leading indicators and other macroeconomic data have also led to his well deserved reputation as an expert in sector rotation - providing investors on both the long and short side of the market opportunities to profit from his ideas. In my opinion, his most important and influential macro prediction to date was his call in the middle of the last decade when he predicted that the worst housing crisis in American history would soon be upon us, and that it would have far-ranging implications for both the global economy and world financial markets.”
| Author | : Robert K. Dixit |
| Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
| Total Pages | : 484 |
| Release | : 2012-07-14 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1400830176 |
How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
| Author | : Frank H. Knight |
| Publisher | : Cosimo, Inc. |
| Total Pages | : 401 |
| Release | : 2006-11-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1602060053 |
A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
| Author | : Antonio J. Conejo |
| Publisher | : Springer Science & Business Media |
| Total Pages | : 549 |
| Release | : 2010-09-08 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1441974210 |
Decision Making Under Uncertainty in Electricity Markets provides models and procedures to be used by electricity market agents to make informed decisions under uncertainty. These procedures rely on well established stochastic programming models, which make them efficient and robust. Particularly, these techniques allow electricity producers to derive offering strategies for the pool and contracting decisions in the futures market. Retailers use these techniques to derive selling prices to clients and energy procurement strategies through the pool, the futures market and bilateral contracting. Using the proposed models, consumers can derive the best energy procurement strategies using the available trading floors. The market operator can use the techniques proposed in this book to clear simultaneously energy and reserve markets promoting efficiency and equity. The techniques described in this book are of interest for professionals working on energy markets, and for graduate students in power engineering, applied mathematics, applied economics, and operations research.
| Author | : Ms.Elif C Arbatli |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 48 |
| Release | : 2017-05-30 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484302362 |
We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
| Author | : Esther Horat |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 247 |
| Release | : 2017-07-04 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 3319556487 |
This book is an ethnographic case study, based on first hand observation, of family businesses in the northern Vietnamese village of Ninh Hiệp along the Red River Delta, which became a major hub for textiles in the wake of the country’s shift towards market socialism. The author explores how the traders experience, negotiate and react to a marketization process that is markedly shaped by the state’s morally ambivalent governance, and which can be thus characterised as an admixture of socialist and neoliberal ideologies. How are traders shaping the political economy of Vietnam? How has the labour force changed as textile-handling has become an increasingly profitable undertaking? Horat explores the relationships between traders and local authorities, as well as changing ideas of masculinity and femininity. Focusing on the redevelopment of the market landscape and the increasing share of private ownership that have given rise to great uncertainty, this book provides a we ll-timed inquiry into current debates of economic development in a uniquely shaped market environment.
| Author | : Cristina Constantinescu |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 44 |
| Release | : 2015-01-21 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498399134 |
This paper focuses on the sluggish growth of world trade relative to income growth in recent years. The analysis uses an empirical strategy based on an error correction model to assess whether the global trade slowdown is structural or cyclical. An estimate of the relationship between trade and income in the past four decades reveals that the long-term trade elasticity rose sharply in the 1990s, but declined significantly in the 2000s even before the global financial crisis. These results suggest that trade is growing slowly not only because of slow growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but also because of a structural change in the trade-GDP relationship in recent years. The available evidence suggests that the explanation may lie in the slowing pace of international vertical specialization rather than increasing protection or the changing composition of trade and GDP.
| Author | : Kent Osband |
| Publisher | : Columbia University Press |
| Total Pages | : 306 |
| Release | : 2011 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0231151721 |
Author of the acclaimed work Iceberg Risk: An Adventure in Portfolio Theory, Kent Osband argues that uncertainty is central rather than marginal to finance. Markets don't trade mainly on changes in risk. They trade on changes in beliefs about risk, and in the process, markets unite, stretch, and occasionally defy beliefs. Recognizing this truth would make a world of difference in investing. Belittling uncertainty has created a rift between financial theory and practice and within finance theory itself, misguiding regulation and stoking huge financial imbalances. Sparking a revolution in the mindset of the investment professional, Osband recasts the market as a learning machine rather than a knowledge machine. The market continually errs, corrects itself, and makes new errors. Respecting that process, without idolizing it, will promote wiser investment, trading, and regulation. With uncertainty embedded at its core, Osband's rational approach points to a finance theory worthy of twenty-first-century investing.
| Author | : Peter A. Diamond |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 584 |
| Release | : 1978 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
The First Edition, published in 1978, brought together classic and modern thinking in the economics of uncertainty and provided the first text in the area. This Second Edition includes three new articles, added material on search theory, an additional preface, and updated references. Articles, introduced with brief commentaries, are divided into three broad sections: theory of choice under uncertainty, general equilibrium models of financial institutions, and models of the effects of uncertainty on market institutions.
