Trade Reforms Of Uncertain Duration And Real Uncertainty
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Author | : Mr.Guillermo Calvo |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 42 |
Release | : 1994-04-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451974272 |
This paper examines trade reforms of uncertain duration undertaken in economies subject to real foreign and domestic shocks. These reforms induce consumption and import booms regardless of whether they succeed or fail and of the degree of intertemporal elasticity of substitution. If tariff revenue is rebated, a recession follows the boom, but without rebates a boom or a recession may follow depending on the outcome of the reform. Consumption fluctuations reflect imperfect credibility and real shocks, and the credibility component depends on the mean and risk of real asset returns. Thus, observed booms are a noisy signal of imperfect credibility. Quantitatively, lack of credibility produces sizable consumption cycles, but generally smaller than those induced by real disturbances.
Author | : Enrique G. Mendoza |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 42 |
Release | : 2006 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
This paper examines trade reforms of uncertain duration undertaken in economies subject to real foreign and domestic shocks. These reforms induce consumption and import booms regardless of whether they succeed or fail and of the degree of intertemporal elasticity of substitution. If tariff revenue is rebated, a recession follows the boom, but without rebates a boom or a recession may follow depending on the outcome of the reform. Consumption fluctuations reflect imperfect credibility and real shocks, and the credibility component depends on the mean and risk of real asset returns. Thus, observed booms are a noisy signal of imperfect credibility. Quantitatively, lack of credibility produces sizable consumption cycles, but generally smaller than those induced by real disturbances.
Author | : Fondo Monetario Internacional |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 38 |
Release | : 1994 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Guillermo A. Calvo |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 38 |
Release | : 1994 |
Genre | : Developing countries |
ISBN | : |
Author | : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 176 |
Release | : 1994-01-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451930887 |
The paper presents a model of optimum currency areas using a general equilibrium approach with regionally differentiated goods. The choice of a currency union depends upon the size of the underlying disturbances, the correlation between these disturbances, the costs of transactions across currencies, factor mobility across regions, and the interrelationships between demand for different goods. It is found that, while a currency union can raise the welfare of the regions within the union, it unambiguously lowers welfare for those outside the union. [JEL F33, F36]
Author | : International Monetary Fund |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 86 |
Release | : 1994-08-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1451850956 |
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
Author | : Moisés Naím |
Publisher | : Lynne Rienner Publishers |
Total Pages | : 306 |
Release | : 1999 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9781555878184 |
Providing one of the first studies to explore the topic, the authors trace the development of competition policy in Latin America, where that policy stands today, and how it may be reconceptualized and deployed as a tool for consolidating the region's economic future."--BOOK JACKET.
Author | : Ms.Elif C Arbatli |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 48 |
Release | : 2017-05-30 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484302362 |
We develop new economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for Japan from January 1987 onwards building on the approach of Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016). Each index reflects the frequency of newspaper articles that contain certain terms pertaining to the economy, policy matters and uncertainty. Our overall EPU index co-varies positively with implied volatilities for Japanese equities, exchange rates and interest rates and with a survey-based measure of political uncertainty. The EPU index rises around contested national elections and major leadership transitions in Japan, during the Asian Financial Crisis and in reaction to the Lehman Brothers failure, U.S. debt downgrade in 2011, Brexit referendum, and Japan’s recent decision to defer a consumption tax hike. Our uncertainty indices for fiscal, monetary, trade and exchange rate policy co-vary positively but also display distinct dynamics. VAR models imply that upward EPU innovations foreshadow deteriorations in Japan’s macroeconomic performance, as reflected by impulse response functions for investment, employment and output. Our study adds to evidence that credible policy plans and strong policy frameworks can favorably influence macroeconomic performance by, in part, reducing policy uncertainty.
Author | : Feroz Khan |
Publisher | : Stanford University Press |
Total Pages | : 550 |
Release | : 2012-11-07 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 0804784809 |
The history of Pakistan's nuclear program is the history of Pakistan. Fascinated with the new nuclear science, the young nation's leaders launched a nuclear energy program in 1956 and consciously interwove nuclear developments into the broader narrative of Pakistani nationalism. Then, impelled first by the 1965 and 1971 India-Pakistan Wars, and more urgently by India's first nuclear weapon test in 1974, Pakistani senior officials tapped into the country's pool of young nuclear scientists and engineers and molded them into a motivated cadre committed to building the 'ultimate weapon.' The tenacity of this group and the central place of its mission in Pakistan's national identity allowed the program to outlast the perennial political crises of the next 20 years, culminating in the test of a nuclear device in 1998. Written by a 30-year professional in the Pakistani Army who played a senior role formulating and advocating Pakistan's security policy on nuclear and conventional arms control, this book tells the compelling story of how and why Pakistan's government, scientists, and military, persevered in the face of a wide array of obstacles to acquire nuclear weapons. It lays out the conditions that sparked the shift from a peaceful quest to acquire nuclear energy into a full-fledged weapons program, details how the nuclear program was organized, reveals the role played by outside powers in nuclear decisions, and explains how Pakistani scientists overcome the many technical hurdles they encountered. Thanks to General Khan's unique insider perspective, it unveils and unravels the fascinating and turbulent interplay of personalities and organizations that took place and reveals how international opposition to the program only made it an even more significant issue of national resolve. Listen to a podcast of a related presentation by Feroz Khan at the Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation at cisac.stanford.edu/events/recording/7458/2/765.
Author | : |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 700 |
Release | : 1996 |
Genre | : Finance |
ISBN | : |