Trade Elasticities and Market Expectations in Brazil

Trade Elasticities and Market Expectations in Brazil
Author: Mr.Claudio Paiva
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 24
Release: 2003-07-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451856148

This paper provides econometric estimates of trade elasticities for Brazil obtained through cointegration and vector auto regression models and controlling for the effects of exchange rate volatility, capacity utilization, and changes in import tariffs. The results suggest that (i) recent market expectations may have been unduly pessimistic regarding the responsiveness of Brazil's trade flows to the real exchange rate, but (ii) the GDP growth rates targeted by the new government may put downward pressure on the exchange rate and thus render the achievement of official inflation targets considerably more difficult if structural reforms are not implemented.

Changing Patterns of Global Trade

Changing Patterns of Global Trade
Author: Nagwa Riad
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 87
Release: 2012-01-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1463973101

Changing Patterns of Global Trade outlines the factors underlying important shifts in global trade that have occurred in recent decades. The emergence of global supply chains and their increasing role in trade patterns allowed emerging market economies to boost their inputs in high-technology exports and is associated with increased trade interconnectedness.The analysis points to one important trend taking place over the last decade: the emergence of China as a major systemically important trading hub, reflecting not only the size of trade but also the increase in number of its significant trading partners.

Chile

Chile
Author: Brieuc Monfort
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 35
Release: 2008-05-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1451869878

This paper analyses the evolution of Chile's trade between 1990 and 2007, studying in particular the impact of trade liberalization in addition to traditional price and demand determinants. The results show that export and import flows are mainly responsive to external and domestic demand, and less so to relative prices, although there is a small impact on imports. In addition, the analysis suggests that trade liberalization may have played a role in increasing exports and imports. Estimations of trade elasticities for other countries in Latin America tend to confirm the results found for Chile.