TIME-SERIES WEATHER: FORECASTING AND PREDICTION WITH PYTHON

TIME-SERIES WEATHER: FORECASTING AND PREDICTION WITH PYTHON
Author: Vivian Siahaan
Publisher: BALIGE PUBLISHING
Total Pages: 196
Release: 2023-07-12
Genre: Computers
ISBN:
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In this project, we embarked on a journey of exploring time-series weather data and performing forecasting and prediction using Python. The objective was to gain insights into the dataset, visualize feature distributions, analyze year-wise and month-wise patterns, apply ARIMA regression to forecast temperature, and utilize machine learning models to predict weather conditions. Let's delve into each step of the process. To begin, we started by exploring the dataset, which contained historical weather data. We examined the structure and content of the dataset to understand its variables, such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, and weather conditions. Understanding the dataset is crucial for effective analysis and modeling. Next, we visualized the distributions of different features. By creating histograms, box plots, and density plots, we gained insights into the range, central tendency, and variability of the variables. These visualizations allowed us to identify any outliers, skewed distributions, or patterns within the data. Moving on, we explored the dataset's temporal aspects by analyzing year-wise and month-wise distributions. This involved aggregating the data based on years and months and visualizing the trends over time. By examining these patterns, we could observe any long-term or seasonal variations in the weather variables. After gaining a comprehensive understanding of the dataset, we proceeded to apply ARIMA regression for temperature forecasting. ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) is a powerful technique for time-series analysis. By fitting an ARIMA model to the temperature data, we were able to make predictions and assess the model's accuracy in capturing the underlying patterns. In addition to temperature forecasting, we aimed to predict weather conditions using machine learning models. We employed various classification algorithms such as Logistic Regression, Decision Trees, Random Forests, Support Vector Machines (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Adaboost, Gradient Boosting, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting (LGBM), and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). These models were trained on the historical weather data, with weather conditions as the target variable. To evaluate the performance of the machine learning models, we utilized several metrics: accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. Accuracy measures the overall correctness of the predictions, while precision quantifies the proportion of true positive predictions out of all positive predictions. Recall, also known as sensitivity, measures the ability to identify true positives, and F1 score combines precision and recall into a single metric. Throughout the process, we emphasized the importance of data preprocessing, including handling missing values, scaling features, and splitting the dataset into training and testing sets. Preprocessing ensures the data is in a suitable format for analysis and modeling, and it helps prevent biases or inconsistencies in the results. By following this step-by-step approach, we were able to gain insights into the dataset, visualize feature distributions, analyze temporal patterns, forecast temperature using ARIMA regression, and predict weather conditions using machine learning models. The evaluation metrics provided a comprehensive assessment of the models' performance in capturing the weather conditions accurately. In conclusion, this project demonstrated the power of Python in time-series weather forecasting and prediction. Through data exploration, visualization, regression analysis, and machine learning modeling, we obtained valuable insights and accurate predictions regarding temperature and weather conditions. This knowledge can be applied in various domains such as agriculture, transportation, and urban planning, enabling better decision-making based on weather forecasts.

Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting with Python

Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting with Python
Author: Francesca Lazzeri
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 224
Release: 2020-12-03
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 111968238X
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Learn how to apply the principles of machine learning to time series modeling with this indispensable resource Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting with Python is an incisive and straightforward examination of one of the most crucial elements of decision-making in finance, marketing, education, and healthcare: time series modeling. Despite the centrality of time series forecasting, few business analysts are familiar with the power or utility of applying machine learning to time series modeling. Author Francesca Lazzeri, a distinguished machine learning scientist and economist, corrects that deficiency by providing readers with comprehensive and approachable explanation and treatment of the application of machine learning to time series forecasting. Written for readers who have little to no experience in time series forecasting or machine learning, the book comprehensively covers all the topics necessary to: Understand time series forecasting concepts, such as stationarity, horizon, trend, and seasonality Prepare time series data for modeling Evaluate time series forecasting models’ performance and accuracy Understand when to use neural networks instead of traditional time series models in time series forecasting Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting with Python is full real-world examples, resources and concrete strategies to help readers explore and transform data and develop usable, practical time series forecasts. Perfect for entry-level data scientists, business analysts, developers, and researchers, this book is an invaluable and indispensable guide to the fundamental and advanced concepts of machine learning applied to time series modeling.

Introduction to Time Series Forecasting With Python

Introduction to Time Series Forecasting With Python
Author: Jason Brownlee
Publisher: Machine Learning Mastery
Total Pages: 359
Release: 2017-02-16
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN:
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Time series forecasting is different from other machine learning problems. The key difference is the fixed sequence of observations and the constraints and additional structure this provides. In this Ebook, finally cut through the math and specialized methods for time series forecasting. Using clear explanations, standard Python libraries and step-by-step tutorials you will discover how to load and prepare data, evaluate model skill, and implement forecasting models for time series data.

Deep Learning with Python

Deep Learning with Python
Author: Francois Chollet
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Total Pages: 597
Release: 2017-11-30
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1638352046
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Summary Deep Learning with Python introduces the field of deep learning using the Python language and the powerful Keras library. Written by Keras creator and Google AI researcher François Chollet, this book builds your understanding through intuitive explanations and practical examples. Purchase of the print book includes a free eBook in PDF, Kindle, and ePub formats from Manning Publications. About the Technology Machine learning has made remarkable progress in recent years. We went from near-unusable speech and image recognition, to near-human accuracy. We went from machines that couldn't beat a serious Go player, to defeating a world champion. Behind this progress is deep learning—a combination of engineering advances, best practices, and theory that enables a wealth of previously impossible smart applications. About the Book Deep Learning with Python introduces the field of deep learning using the Python language and the powerful Keras library. Written by Keras creator and Google AI researcher François Chollet, this book builds your understanding through intuitive explanations and practical examples. You'll explore challenging concepts and practice with applications in computer vision, natural-language processing, and generative models. By the time you finish, you'll have the knowledge and hands-on skills to apply deep learning in your own projects. What's Inside Deep learning from first principles Setting up your own deep-learning environment Image-classification models Deep learning for text and sequences Neural style transfer, text generation, and image generation About the Reader Readers need intermediate Python skills. No previous experience with Keras, TensorFlow, or machine learning is required. About the Author François Chollet works on deep learning at Google in Mountain View, CA. He is the creator of the Keras deep-learning library, as well as a contributor to the TensorFlow machine-learning framework. He also does deep-learning research, with a focus on computer vision and the application of machine learning to formal reasoning. His papers have been published at major conferences in the field, including the Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR), the Conference and Workshop on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS), the International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR), and others. Table of Contents PART 1 - FUNDAMENTALS OF DEEP LEARNING What is deep learning? Before we begin: the mathematical building blocks of neural networks Getting started with neural networks Fundamentals of machine learning PART 2 - DEEP LEARNING IN PRACTICE Deep learning for computer vision Deep learning for text and sequences Advanced deep-learning best practices Generative deep learning Conclusions appendix A - Installing Keras and its dependencies on Ubuntu appendix B - Running Jupyter notebooks on an EC2 GPU instance

Machine Learning for Time-Series with Python

Machine Learning for Time-Series with Python
Author: Ben Auffarth
Publisher: Packt Publishing Ltd
Total Pages: 371
Release: 2021-10-29
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1801816107
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Get better insights from time-series data and become proficient in model performance analysis Key FeaturesExplore popular and modern machine learning methods including the latest online and deep learning algorithmsLearn to increase the accuracy of your predictions by matching the right model with the right problemMaster time series via real-world case studies on operations management, digital marketing, finance, and healthcareBook Description The Python time-series ecosystem is huge and often quite hard to get a good grasp on, especially for time-series since there are so many new libraries and new models. This book aims to deepen your understanding of time series by providing a comprehensive overview of popular Python time-series packages and help you build better predictive systems. Machine Learning for Time-Series with Python starts by re-introducing the basics of time series and then builds your understanding of traditional autoregressive models as well as modern non-parametric models. By observing practical examples and the theory behind them, you will become confident with loading time-series datasets from any source, deep learning models like recurrent neural networks and causal convolutional network models, and gradient boosting with feature engineering. This book will also guide you in matching the right model to the right problem by explaining the theory behind several useful models. You'll also have a look at real-world case studies covering weather, traffic, biking, and stock market data. By the end of this book, you should feel at home with effectively analyzing and applying machine learning methods to time-series. What you will learnUnderstand the main classes of time series and learn how to detect outliers and patternsChoose the right method to solve time-series problemsCharacterize seasonal and correlation patterns through autocorrelation and statistical techniquesGet to grips with time-series data visualizationUnderstand classical time-series models like ARMA and ARIMAImplement deep learning models, like Gaussian processes, transformers, and state-of-the-art machine learning modelsBecome familiar with many libraries like Prophet, XGboost, and TensorFlowWho this book is for This book is ideal for data analysts, data scientists, and Python developers who want instantly useful and practical recipes to implement today, and a comprehensive reference book for tomorrow. Basic knowledge of the Python Programming language is a must, while familiarity with statistics will help you get the most out of this book.

Forecasting: principles and practice

Forecasting: principles and practice
Author: Rob J Hyndman
Publisher: OTexts
Total Pages: 380
Release: 2018-05-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0987507117
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Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Practical Time Series Analysis

Practical Time Series Analysis
Author: Aileen Nielsen
Publisher: O'Reilly Media
Total Pages: 500
Release: 2019-09-20
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1492041629
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Time series data analysis is increasingly important due to the massive production of such data through the internet of things, the digitalization of healthcare, and the rise of smart cities. As continuous monitoring and data collection become more common, the need for competent time series analysis with both statistical and machine learning techniques will increase. Covering innovations in time series data analysis and use cases from the real world, this practical guide will help you solve the most common data engineering and analysis challengesin time series, using both traditional statistical and modern machine learning techniques. Author Aileen Nielsen offers an accessible, well-rounded introduction to time series in both R and Python that will have data scientists, software engineers, and researchers up and running quickly. You’ll get the guidance you need to confidently: Find and wrangle time series data Undertake exploratory time series data analysis Store temporal data Simulate time series data Generate and select features for a time series Measure error Forecast and classify time series with machine or deep learning Evaluate accuracy and performance

Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting

Deep Learning for Time Series Forecasting
Author: Jason Brownlee
Publisher: Machine Learning Mastery
Total Pages: 572
Release: 2018-08-30
Genre: Computers
ISBN:
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Deep learning methods offer a lot of promise for time series forecasting, such as the automatic learning of temporal dependence and the automatic handling of temporal structures like trends and seasonality. With clear explanations, standard Python libraries, and step-by-step tutorial lessons you’ll discover how to develop deep learning models for your own time series forecasting projects.

Time Series Forecasting using Deep Learning

Time Series Forecasting using Deep Learning
Author: Ivan Gridin
Publisher: BPB Publications
Total Pages: 354
Release: 2021-10-15
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 9391392571
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Explore the infinite possibilities offered by Artificial Intelligence and Neural Networks KEY FEATURES ● Covers numerous concepts, techniques, best practices and troubleshooting tips by community experts. ● Includes practical demonstration of robust deep learning prediction models with exciting use-cases. ● Covers the use of the most powerful research toolkit such as Python, PyTorch, and Neural Network Intelligence. DESCRIPTION This book is amid at teaching the readers how to apply the deep learning techniques to the time series forecasting challenges and how to build prediction models using PyTorch. The readers will learn the fundamentals of PyTorch in the early stages of the book. Next, the time series forecasting is covered in greater depth after the programme has been developed. You will try to use machine learning to identify the patterns that can help us forecast the future results. It covers methodologies such as Recurrent Neural Network, Encoder-decoder model, and Temporal Convolutional Network, all of which are state-of-the-art neural network architectures. Furthermore, for good measure, we have also introduced the neural architecture search, which automates searching for an ideal neural network design for a certain task. Finally by the end of the book, readers would be able to solve complex real-world prediction issues by applying the models and strategies learnt throughout the course of the book. This book also offers another great way of mastering deep learning and its various techniques. WHAT YOU WILL LEARN ● Work with the Encoder-Decoder concept and Temporal Convolutional Network mechanics. ● Learn the basics of neural architecture search with Neural Network Intelligence. ● Combine standard statistical analysis methods with deep learning approaches. ● Automate the search for optimal predictive architecture. ● Design your custom neural network architecture for specific tasks. ● Apply predictive models to real-world problems of forecasting stock quotes, weather, and natural processes. WHO THIS BOOK IS FOR This book is written for engineers, data scientists, and stock traders who want to build time series forecasting programs using deep learning. Possessing some familiarity of Python is sufficient, while a basic understanding of machine learning is desirable but not needed. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Time Series Problems and Challenges 2. Deep Learning with PyTorch 3. Time Series as Deep Learning Problem 4. Recurrent Neural Networks 5. Advanced Forecasting Models 6. PyTorch Model Tuning with Neural Network Intelligence 7. Applying Deep Learning to Real-world Forecasting Problems 8. PyTorch Forecasting Package 9. What is Next?

REGRESSION, SEGMENTATION, CLUSTERING, AND PREDICTION PROJECTS WITH PYTHON

REGRESSION, SEGMENTATION, CLUSTERING, AND PREDICTION PROJECTS WITH PYTHON
Author: Vivian Siahaan
Publisher: BALIGE PUBLISHING
Total Pages: 623
Release: 2022-02-25
Genre: Computers
ISBN:
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PROJECT 1: TIME-SERIES WEATHER: FORECASTING AND PREDICTION WITH PYTHON Weather data are described and quantified by the variables of Earth's atmosphere: temperature, air pressure, humidity, and the variations and interactions of these variables, and how they change over time. Different spatial scales are used to describe and predict weather on local, regional, and global levels. The dataset used in this project contains weather data for New Delhi, India. This data was taken out from wunderground. It contains various features such as temperature, pressure, humidity, rain, precipitation, etc. The main target is to develop a prediction model accurate enough for forecasting temperature and predicting target variable (condition). Time-series weather forecasting will be done using ARIMA models. The machine learning models used in this project to predict target variable (condition) are K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, LGBM classifier, Gradient Boosting, XGB classifier, and MLP classifier. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, distribution of features, feature importance, cross validation score, and predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, scalability of the model, training loss, and training accuracy. PROJECT 2: HOUSE PRICE: ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION USING MACHINE LEARNING WITH PYTHON The dataset used in this project is taken from the second chapter of Aurélien Géron's recent book 'Hands-On Machine learning with Scikit-Learn and TensorFlow'. It serves as an excellent introduction to implementing machine learning algorithms because it requires rudimentary data cleaning, has an easily understandable list of variables and sits at an optimal size between being to toyish and too cumbersome. The data contains information from the 1990 California census. Although it may not help you with predicting current housing prices like the Zillow Zestimate dataset, it does provide an accessible introductory dataset for teaching people about the basics of machine learning. The data pertains to the houses found in a given California district and some summary stats about them based on the 1990 census data. Be warned the data aren't cleaned so there are some preprocessing steps required! The columns are as follows: longitude, latitude, housing_median_age, total_rooms, total_bedrooms, population, households, median_income, median_house_value, and ocean_proximity. The machine learning models used in this project used to perform regression on median_house_value and to predict it as target variable are K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, LGBM classifier, Gradient Boosting, XGB classifier, and MLP classifier. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, distribution of features, feature importance, cross validation score, and predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, scalability of the model, training loss, and training accuracy. PROJECT 3: CUSTOMER PERSONALITY ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION USING MACHINE LEARNING WITH PYTHON Customer Personality Analysis is a detailed analysis of a company’s ideal customers. It helps a business to better understand its customers and makes it easier for them to modify products according to the specific needs, behaviors and concerns of different types of customers. Customer personality analysis helps a business to modify its product based on its target customers from different types of customer segments. For example, instead of spending money to market a new product to every customer in the company’s database, a company can analyze which customer segment is most likely to buy the product and then market the product only on that particular segment. Following are the features in the dataset: ID = Customer's unique identifier; Year_Birth = Customer's birth year; Education = Customer's education level; Marital_Status = Customer's marital status; Income = Customer's yearly household income; Kidhome = Number of children in customer's household; Teenhome = Number of teenagers in customer's household; Dt_Customer = Date of customer's enrollment with the company; Recency = Number of days since customer's last purchase; MntWines = Amount spent on wine in the last 2 years; MntFruits = Amount spent on fruits in the last 2 years; MntMeatProducts = Amount spent on meat in the last 2 years; MntFishProducts = Amount spent on fish in the last 2 years; MntSweetProducts = Amount spent on sweets in the last 2 years; MntGoldProds = Amount spent on gold in the last 2 years; NumDealsPurchases = Number of purchases made with a discount; NumWebPurchases = Number of purchases made through the company's web site; NumCatalogPurchases = Number of purchases made using a catalogue; NumStorePurchases = Number of purchases made directly in stores; NumWebVisitsMonth = Number of visits to company's web site in the last month; AcceptedCmp3 = 1 if customer accepted the offer in the 3rd campaign, 0 otherwise; AcceptedCmp4 = 1 if customer accepted the offer in the 4th campaign, 0 otherwise; AcceptedCmp5 = 1 if customer accepted the offer in the 5th campaign, 0 otherwise; AcceptedCmp1 = 1 if customer accepted the offer in the 1st campaign, 0 otherwise; AcceptedCmp2 = 1 if customer accepted the offer in the 2nd campaign, 0 otherwise; Response = 1 if customer accepted the offer in the last campaign, 0 otherwise; and Complain = 1 if customer complained in the last 2 years, 0 otherwise. The target in this project is to perform clustering and predicting to summarize customer segments. In this project, you will perform clustering using KMeans to get 4 clusters. The machine learning models used in this project to perform regression on total number of purchase and to predict clusters as target variable are K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, LGBM, Gradient Boosting, XGB, and MLP. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, distribution of features, feature importance, cross validation score, and predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, scalability of the model, training loss, and training accuracy. PROJECT 4: CUSTOMER SEGMENTATION, CLUSTERING, AND PREDICTION WITH PYTHON In this project, you will develop a customer segmentation, clustering, and prediction to define marketing strategy. The sample dataset summarizes the usage behavior of about 9000 active credit card holders during the last 6 months. The file is at a customer level with 18 behavioral variables. Following is the Data Dictionary for Credit Card dataset: CUSTID: Identification of Credit Card holder (Categorical); BALANCE: Balance amount left in their account to make purchases; BALANCEFREQUENCY: How frequently the Balance is updated, score between 0 and 1 (1 = frequently updated, 0 = not frequently updated); PURCHASES: Amount of purchases made from account; ONEOFFPURCHASES: Maximum purchase amount done in one-go; INSTALLMENTSPURCHASES: Amount of purchase done in installment; CASHADVANCE: Cash in advance given by the user; PURCHASESFREQUENCY: How frequently the Purchases are being made, score between 0 and 1 (1 = frequently purchased, 0 = not frequently purchased); ONEOFFPURCHASESFREQUENCY: How frequently Purchases are happening in one-go (1 = frequently purchased, 0 = not frequently purchased); PURCHASESINSTALLMENTSFREQUENCY: How frequently purchases in installments are being done (1 = frequently done, 0 = not frequently done); CASHADVANCEFREQUENCY: How frequently the cash in advance being paid; CASHADVANCETRX: Number of Transactions made with "Cash in Advanced"; PURCHASESTRX: Number of purchase transactions made; CREDITLIMIT: Limit of Credit Card for user; PAYMENTS: Amount of Payment done by user; MINIMUM_PAYMENTS: Minimum amount of payments made by user; PRCFULLPAYMENT: Percent of full payment paid by user; and TENURE: Tenure of credit card service for user. In this project, you will perform clustering using KMeans to get 5 clusters. The machine learning models used in this project to perform regression on total number of purchase and to predict clusters as target variable are K-Nearest Neighbor, Random Forest, Naive Bayes, Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, LGBM, Gradient Boosting, XGB, and MLP. Finally, you will plot boundary decision, distribution of features, feature importance, cross validation score, and predicted values versus true values, confusion matrix, learning curve, performance of the model, scalability of the model, training loss, and training accuracy.