The Change in Financial Analysts' Forecast Attributes for Value and Growth Stocks

The Change in Financial Analysts' Forecast Attributes for Value and Growth Stocks
Author: Pieter Johannes De Jong
Publisher: ProQuest
Total Pages:
Release: 2007
Genre: Economic forecasting
ISBN: 9780549145035

This research will concentrate on the changes in earnings forecasts, forecast accuracy and forecast dispersion for growth and value stocks after Reg FD. Each topic is presented in a separate essay. The first essay tests if growth and value stock returns respond more to forecasted earnings changes than they do to changes in earnings and whether these stock returns respond in a different fashion before and after Reg FD. This phenomenon is stronger for growth stock portfolio strategies than it is for value stock portfolios. After Reg FD, the overall impact of earnings expectations on stock returns is smaller, especially for growth stock returns. The second essay examines financial analysts' earnings forecast accuracy in value and growth stocks before and after the introduction of Reg FD. Accuracy for both stock groups (value and growth stocks) has improved after the introduction of Reg FD. The results in this essay provide additional evidence indicating that analysts did not just misinterpret available news but consciously tried to maintain relationships with managers. However, Reg FD efficiently limited these relationships between managers of growth firms and analysts so that the monetary advantage from manipulating earnings forecasts before the introduction of Reg FD no longer exists. The third essay evaluates the hypothesis stating that forecast dispersion, on both growth and value stock returns, has increased after the introduction Reg FD. However, the increased dispersion found at the second quarter of 2001 drastically dissipates at the second quarter of 2002, although value stock forecast dispersion before earnings announcement and value stock belief jumbling remain higher. The results in this essay suggest that corporate voluntary disclosure created a greater variety of opinions and, therefore, more uncertainty about value stocks. Also, value stock returns have a stronger inverse relationship with dispersion because financial analysts have become more uncertain about value firms' performance. The bigger the disagreement about a stock's value, the higher the market price relative to the true value of the stock, and the lower its future return.

Forecasting Equity Market Returns Using Historical Price Earnings Multiples

Forecasting Equity Market Returns Using Historical Price Earnings Multiples
Author: Arpan Ranka
Publisher:
Total Pages: 12
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper aims at developing a framework based on a price earnings multiple model which would help investors forecast multi-year forward equity market returns. The author would test the following three parameters to determine which combination best fits the historical market performance and thus can be expected to provide a reliable forecast of future market returns:• Earnings variants (Shiller, Peak, Forward or Trailing)• Time period for projection (10 years, 7 years or 5 years)• Data interval (Daily, Weekly or Monthly)In case and after a suitable combination is found which can be relied upon to forecast equity market returns, a range of possible returns would be determined based on the price earnings multiples observed during bull and bear markets. The range would likely provide an investor with an indication of best and worst case returns along with the most likely expected equity market return.

Management Earnings Forecasts and Other Forward-Looking Statements

Management Earnings Forecasts and Other Forward-Looking Statements
Author: Zahn Bozanic
Publisher:
Total Pages: 60
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

We identify forward-looking statements (FLS) in firms' disclosures to distinguish between “forecast-like” (quantitative statements about earnings) and “other”, or non-forecast-like, FLS. We show that, like earnings forecasts, other FLS generate significant investor and analyst responses. Unlike earnings forecasts, other FLS are issued more frequently when uncertainty is higher. We then show that earnings-related FLS are more sensitive to uncertainty than quantitative statements, suggesting that managers are more likely to alter the content than the form of FLS when uncertainty is higher. Our study indicates that incorporating other FLS into empirical measures provides a more comprehensive proxy for firms' voluntary disclosures.

Forward-Looking Earnings Statements

Forward-Looking Earnings Statements
Author: Gregory S. Miller
Publisher:
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper identifies cross-sectional factors that motivate the disclosure of forward-looking earnings information and documents that these disclosures impact market prices by quot;pulling forwardquot; future earnings information. We examine a set of firms facing poor current earnings performance, undervaluation concerns, investor neglect and extreme pessimism and find significant cross-sectional variation regarding whether these firms provide forward-looking earnings information to correct market misperceptions in advance of the earnings announcement. Consistent with existing theory, firms with stronger and more persistent earnings news are more likely to provide forward-looking disclosures during the turnaround period. Moreover, we find that firms operating in high litigation industries, possessing strong institutional ownership, having greater stock option-based compensation and facing larger non-equity stakeholders are more likely to provide disclosures. Alternatively, we find evidence that the use of alternative financial signaling mechanisms (share repurchases and dividend increases) lowers the probability that managers will make forward-looking disclosures. Market-based tests indicate that the disclosed information is value-relevant. The market responds in a significantly positive manner to forecasts of earnings (i.e., forward-looking statements provided outside of earnings announcements) as well as to forward-looking statements bundled in current earnings announcements (after controlling for the current period's earnings information). Furthermore, these responses are positively correlated with future seasonally-adjusted changes in earnings, indicating the disclosures are effective in pulling forward future mandatory information. Finally, the market reaction to the announcements of previously preempted earnings is less than that of unpreempted earnings, providing additional evidence that the disclosures are effectively pulling-forward the eventual mandatory earnings information.