Four Essays on Fiscal Policy After the Global Financial Crisis

Four Essays on Fiscal Policy After the Global Financial Crisis
Author: Francesco Molteni
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

This dissertation is divided in two sections. The first section addresses the question of the consequences of fiscal policy interventions on the economy and the second section analyzes the issue of the liquidity of European Government bonds during the recent financial crisis, the effect ofliquidity shock on these securities and consequences ofpolicy responses. The frrst chapter studies the impact of a discretionary government spending shock on economic activity and other macroeconomic variables by using an alternative two-step procedure for the identification of the govemment spending shock. The second chapter analyzes the effects of a combination of fiscal and monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic and financial variables using a Time Varying Parameters Factor Augmented VAR (TVP-FA VAR) mode!. The third chapter investigates the European market of repurchase agreements and shows that government bonds represent a key fraction of the collateral in these transactions. lt also examines the effects of a rise in haircuts on the value of govemment bonds and shows that this mechanism may represent a channel in the transmission mechanism of banking and sovereign-debt crises in the periphery of the Eurozone. Following the empirical findings of the third chapter, the last chapter proposes a DSGE model with financial frictions to assess the impact of a negative liquidity shock and the consequences ofunconventional policy.

Essays on the Global Financial Crisis

Essays on the Global Financial Crisis
Author: Heiko Hesse
Publisher:
Total Pages: 340
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN: 9781475544121

The Global Financial Crisis has been a watershed event not only for many advanced economies but also emerging markets around the world. This book brings together research and policy work over the last nine years from staff at the IMF. It covers a wide range of issues such as the origins of the financial crisis, the policy response, spillovers and contagion, case studies, bank stress testing, and debt sustainability and sovereign debt restructuring.

Essays on Fiscal, Monetary, and Macroprudential Policy

Essays on Fiscal, Monetary, and Macroprudential Policy
Author: Christopher Johnson
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

My dissertation investigates policy-oriented issues relating the the Great Recession from a macro-financial perspective. The first chapter focuses on macroprudential policy in the context of the Global Financial Crisis. The second chapter evaluates the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus in response to the Great Recession. The third chapter considers welfare-maximizing monetary policy when the liquidity of assets depends on the opinions of investors. A striking feature of the Great Recession was that all G7 countries experienced a simultaneous decline in economic activity. Two crucial developments prior to the crisis were the rise of non-bank financial intermediation, or shadow banking, and increased trade in asset-backed securities around the world. In the first chapter of my dissertation, I describe the extent to which shadow banking and securitization contributed to the high degree of international comovement during the Great Recession, which largely resulted from the collapse of the US housing bubble. In order to address this, I utilize a novel two-country real business cycle model with financial intermediation disaggregated between commercial and shadow banking in both countries, the latter of which specializes in securitization. When a negative country-specific shock occurs, both countries experience a simultaneous decline in both real and financial economic activity. The shock is transmitted across borders through a balance sheet channel, and is then amplified by the high leverage of shadow banks. On the policy front, I find that when capital controls are imposed on securities originated by the country where a negative shock occurs, both the transmission and amplification factors are reduced. In response to the Great Recession, fiscal stimulus was utilized with the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009. The effectiveness of fiscal stimulus has been well-documented through empirical estimates of fiscal multipliers. However, the validity of these measures came into question following the ARRA, with most criticisms regarding endogeneity. In 2011, Robert Barro wrote in the Wall Street Journal that the studies the Obama administration relied on were dependent upon models that ``substitute assumptions for identification.'' The assumptions in question are the recursive structures involving the endogenous variables utilized in these models, also known as a Cholesky ordering. In the second chapter of my dissertation, I test the validity of Cholesky ordering in the context of measuring fiscal multipliers. Using a novel iterative projection instrumental variable approach in a structural vector autoregressive framework, I find strong evidence in the rejection of every possible recursive ordering among standard endogenous variables utilized throughout the literature. I also find new estimates of fiscal multipliers that do not rely on a Cholesky ordering. My estimates are conservative relative to the rest of the literature, with fiscal multipliers that are economically and statistically significant after four quarters, but disintegrate within eight quarters. In the third chapter of my dissertation, I consider how differences of opinion among investors affect the liquidity value of assets. I use a monetary framework in which money and risky assets can facilitate trade. While the future value of money is agreed upon among investors, the risky asset is opinion-sensitive such that traders may disagree on its future value. This results in a pecking order theory of trade, which depends on the perceptions of the traders in question. I find that optimists prefer to use money instead of assets as a method of payment, whereas pessimists prefer to use assets instead of money. Intuitively, optimists value assets for their future return value, so they would rather hold onto their assets to realize those returns. Pessimists expect less favorable returns on their assets, so they are willing to part ways with them. Pessimists buys assets because there is always the possibility that they meet an optimist to trade with, by which the terms of trade will be favorable for pessimists. Regarding monetary policy, the Friedman rule is welfare-maximizing. Additionally, monetary policy can alter the composition of investors in the asset market. Specifically, lowering the nominal interest rate drives pessimists out of the asset market.

Global Economic & Financial Crisis

Global Economic & Financial Crisis
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages: 368
Release: 2009-01-01
Genre: Economic history
ISBN: 9788125036999

A collapse in housing prices in the United States in the middle of 2007 led to a rise in defaults in loan repayments and then rapidly to major losses in financial institutions across the world. The financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 took little time to turn into the global economic crisis of 2008 and 2009, leaving no country and no sector untouched and has become the worst contraction since the Depression of the 1930s. The structure of financial innovation that drove growth for close to a quarter of a century has turned out to be a house of cards. Governments and central banks are now rethinking the organization and role of banks. The incentives given to executives of the financial institutions to promote profits at all costs have been put under scrutiny. This volume puts together a collection of essays on a number of aspects of the global economic and financial crisis that were first published in the Economic & Political Weekly in early 2009. Economists and policy makers from across the world cover six areas from a global and Indian perspective. One set of articles discusses the structural causes of the financial crisis. A second focuses on banking and offers solutions for the future. A third examines the role of the US dollar in the unfolding of the crisis. A fourth area of study is the impact on global income distribution. A fifth set of essays takes a long-term view of policy choices confronting the governments of the world. A separate section assesses the downturn in India, the state of the domestic financial sector, the impact on the informal economy and the reforms necessary to prevent another crisis. This book is essential reading for anyone interested in and concerned about the global economic and financial crisis.

Essays on the World Economy and Its Financial System

Essays on the World Economy and Its Financial System
Author: Brigitte Granville
Publisher: Skyhorse Publishing
Total Pages: 300
Release: 2000
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Contributors from member organizations of the Tokyo Club discuss the topics "Reflections on the Economies of Three Major Western Players," "Assessment and Responses to Financial Turmoil," "In Search of an Exchange Rate Regime," and "Managing Risks in an Integrating World Financial System." Members of the Tokyo Club include the Brookings Institution (USA), IFO-Institut Fur Wirtschaftsforschung (Germany), Institut Francais des Relations Internationales (France), The Royal Institute of International Affairs (UK), and Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. (Japan).

Global Waves of Debt

Global Waves of Debt
Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
Total Pages: 403
Release: 2021-03-03
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1464815453

The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.