Three Essays on the Endogenous Growth of a Regional Economy Under the Impacts of Demographic Changes

Three Essays on the Endogenous Growth of a Regional Economy Under the Impacts of Demographic Changes
Author: Tae-Jeong Kim
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

The impact of an ageing population on the economy is one of the key issues in most developed countries. It is a generally accepted notion that an ageing population could cause negative effects, including a decrease of per-capita output and economic welfare, on the economy mainly due to the decline of the labor force and aggregate saving rate. The first chapter adopts the two-sector overlapping generation (OLG) model to capture the impact of population ageing on the regional economy and compares the effectiveness of government policy in an endogenous growth perspective. Comparing the computational results of a one-sector OLG model where agent0́9s productivity is given exogenously, the simulation result confirms that endogenously determined investment in human capital significantly offsets the negative effects of the ageing population on the regional economy. The chapter also attempts to check if there is room for the government to weaken and prevent the negative effects of the ageing population. For this, this chapter examines the effects of two kinds of government transfer systems on the regional economy: money transfer and educational transfer systems. The money transfer, which is redistributed to agents by the government, could be used for an individual0́9s consumption, saving and educational investment. Educational transfer is given directly to the individual proportional to his or her opportunity cost stemming from education investment. The result shows that the educational transfer system is superior to money transfer system in the long-run in terms of growth of per-capita income, aggregate welfare and stabilizing the factor prices. However, the results imply that there exists a trade-off relationship in implementing an educational transfer system between economic growth and equity of income and wealth. The second chapter seeks to examine the effects of the ageing population in Illinois with inclusion of the household0́9s ex-ante intra-generational heterogeneity across race and migration status. For this, this chapter empirically shows that there are significant gaps in returns to education between race and migration status in Illinois; and there exists significant relationships between a resident0́9s demographics and the probability of in- and out- migration around Illinois. These empirical results, including heterogeneous properties across race and migration status and demographic- related migration tendency, are calibrated into the two-sector OLG model. Using this two-sector OLG model incorporated with the intra-generational heterogeneity over race and migration status, this chapter projects the economic growth of Illinois will decelerate substantially until the mid 2020s due to population ageing. After that time, the growth of Illinois will partially recover. The major economic problems of the ageing era stem from the deficiency of the labor force. Also the Black0́9s unemployment rate tends to be substantially high in Illinois. Taking the two labor market- related problems of ageing population and high Black0́9s unemployment into consideration, the government could implement a labor policy measure aiming at increasing the employment rate of the Black to the level of the other races through the absorption of the unemployed Blacks by offering industry subsidies or incentives. However, the result shows that an indirect educational policy, targeting the upgrading of the transmission channel of human capital stock from the old generation to the young generation of the Black, is more preferable than the direct employment policy in terms of long-run effects on per-capita income and social welfare. Also, this chapter shows that the effects of the government0́9s immigration policy, which aims at replacing low-productive international immigrants with native, relatively high-productive unemployed individuals who have been unemployed, are very limited in terms of per-capita income, welfare and aggregate productivity. On the contrary, tax and transfer policy inducing international immigrants to invest more in their education works relatively better. Furthermore, under this policy scheme, the native0́9s human capital stock also improves significantly because of positive spillover effects even though the transfer system0́9s direct beneficiary is the international immigrant group. The third chapter attempts to project the economic paths for the individual Midwest states (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin, as well as the Rest of the US) in the future when the population ageing becomes more pronounced. To accomplish this task, a dynamic general equilibrium model is developed so that it could incorporate the inter-regional transactions and endogenous growth mechanisms within the framework of an OLG model. Key parameter values associated with the regional interconnections were assigned by using multi-regional Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of the Midwest states. Two different steady-state results were presented with the two different age-cohort population structures corresponding to year 2007 and 2030. These steady-state results imply that there should be considerable negative impacts on the regional economies in the sense of declining per-capita output. The rate of declining of per-capita output are projected to be heterogeneous across the regions due to the different developments of age-cohort population structures and consequently different levels of endogenously determined educational investment of workers. Furthermore, the regions could be grouped separately according to the levels of average human capital stock of workers: high-skilled and low-skilled regions, being roughly consistent with actual labor productivity statistics. It is intuitive that the supply-demand interactions between the regions should be affected by developments of demographics in each region. This intuition is consistent with the simulation results in the sense that the result revealed the development of output price in a certain region reflects the dynamics of demographics of every region. Meanwhile, according to the dynamic simulation, the negative impacts of population ageing will not be so severe unlike what was presented in the steady-state results. This mitigation of negative effects could be attributed mainly to the growth of human capital stock of workers. The dynamic simulation results reveal that the per-capita output of every region is projected to grow positively in the near future when the population ageing will be pronouncing. However, the growth rate of the per-capita output is projected to be heterogeneous across the regions: the regions with high-skilled workers hold the potential threat that population ageing could give more negative impacts on the economy due to the relatively sluggish growth of human capital stock. Also, the dynamic simulation results show that certain regions in Midwest will experience their terms-of-trade deteriorate in the near future, implying that careful attention should be given to their future trade conditions.

Endogenous Regional Development

Endogenous Regional Development
Author: Robert John Stimson
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 353
Release: 2011
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781849804783

Increasingly, endogenous factors and processes are being emphasized as drivers in regional economic development and growth. This 15 chapter book is unique in that it commences by presenting five disciplinary takes on endogenous development from the perspectives of economics, geography, sociology, planning and organizational management. Several chapters demonstrate how researchers have developed operational models to investigate the roles played by endogenous factors in regional economic development, including the role of entrepreneurial rents. Further chapters provide empirical investigations of endogenous factors in regional development at various levels of spatial scale - from the supraregion to the nation, city and small town - and in a variety of situational settings, including the European Union, Asia and Australia. The book is an invaluable up-to-date resource for researchers and students in regional science, and regional economic development and planning.

Theories of Endogenous Regional Growth

Theories of Endogenous Regional Growth
Author: Börje Johansson
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 431
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3642595707

During the last two decades a new growth theory has emerged - often labelled "endogenous economic growth". The contributions in the book develop these advances into a theoretical framework for endogenous regional economic growth and explain the implications for regional economic policies in the perspective of the new century. Endogenous growth models can reflect increasing returns and hence refer more adequately to empirical observations than earlier models, and the models become policy relevant, because in endogenous growth models policy matters. Such policies comprise efforts to stimulate the growth of knowledge intensity of the labour supply and knowledge production in the form of R&D.

Regional Economic Development

Regional Economic Development
Author: Benjamin Higgins
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 428
Release: 2017-09-05
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1351594508

Originally published in 1988. Leading international researchers in regional economic development have contributed an integrated set of chapters reviewing the whole field and taking stock of current thinking. The book is in honour of François Perroux, the father of regional development theory, whose contributions to two important concepts in economics – time and space – have been substantial. The book comprises five parts. Part one covers Perroux's work in general and on growth poles in particular. Part two deals with 'the politics of place', population and regional development, techniques for regional policy analysis and a neoclassical approach to regional economics. In part three the Canadian scene is reviewed at national and regional levels. In part four chapters on urban development, small and medium-size cities, and capital grants deal with the experiences of other countries. Part five concludes the book with a chapter on growth poles, optimal size of cities, and regional disparities and government intervention.

Leadership and Institutions in Regional Endogenous Development

Leadership and Institutions in Regional Endogenous Development
Author: Robert John Stimson
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Total Pages: 163
Release: 2009-01-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1848449437

The authors of this comprehensive book provide a detailed rationale and original theory for the study of leadership and institutional factors, including entrepreneurship, in the growth and development of cities and regions. They demonstrate why leadership, institutions and entrepreneurship can – and indeed do – play a crucial enhancing role as key elements in the process of regional endogenous growth. The so-called 'new growth theory' emphasizes endogenous processes. While some of the literature refers to leadership and institutional factors, there has been little analysis of the explicit roles these factors play in the growth and development of cities and regions. This book remedies that gap, beginning with a brief overview of the evolution of the 'new growth theory' in regional economic development, in which the emphasis is on endogenous factors. The book then discusses leadership and institutional factors in that context, creating a new path for understanding regional economic development processes. Multiple case studies from different parts of the world illustrate the theoretical concepts.Students and scholars in regional development, planning and public policy will find this volume invaluable.

Three Essays on Regional Economics from the Perspective of Transportation, Demand Shocks and Population Aging

Three Essays on Regional Economics from the Perspective of Transportation, Demand Shocks and Population Aging
Author: Xiaochen Zhang (Ph. D. in environmental economics)
Publisher:
Total Pages: 103
Release: 2018
Genre: Demography
ISBN:

The second chapter investigates local labor supply’s responses to demand shocks during the recession years in the context of China. Greater flexibility of the local labor market is an indicator of stronger local economies. The rationale is that states or regions within a country may receive asymmetric demand shocks, so that people from severely-hit regions may move towards less-affected regions, thus reducing the aggregate unemployment rate. It is convenient for economists to study the impacts of 2007 economic recession on countries other than the US, because this recession can be seen as an exogenous shock for other countries. I try to isolate the impacts of this demand shock on different local labor supply responses by examining pre- and post-recession effects. Specifically, the effects of employment changes on the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and migration are investigated. To deal with endogeneity, “Bartik-style” industrial mix and “Regress-M” are used as instrument variables to identify causal effects. Results show that the role of migration in alleviating negative demand shocks has decreased over time, which could be the consequence of government-led local development policy.

Three Essays On U.s. Regional Development And Economic Resilience

Three Essays On U.s. Regional Development And Economic Resilience
Author: Jiaochen Liang
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

In economic geography, there is a tendency to view regional economies as an inter-connected and endlessly evolving system. The way in which different sectors interact with each other in a region significantly influences the performance and future development of a local economy. This dissertation is comprised of three essays on U.S. regional economies, focusing on their resilience in the context of globalization as well as sector employment growth in recent decades. By investigating the impacts of entrepreneurship and industrial structure on the development and future pathways of a local economy, I seek to reveal details about the mechanisms of regional economic development and resilience from an evolutionary perspective. The first two essays are about regional resilience against trade shocks. Different from previous literature in this area, these two articles study economic resilience from a new perspective of evolutionary economic geography, which emphasizes the ability to reconfigure economic structure and develop new growth pathways. The first essay proposes several mechanisms through which entrepreneurs can help to mitigate adverse trade shocks. Empirical results confirm that the adverse marginal impacts of trade shocks on job losses are dampened in regions with higher self-employment rates. The second essay studies how a regional economy converts the adverse impacts of import competition into a stimulus for developing new growth pathways. It is found that regions experiencing greater import competition are more likely to attract new industry entrants, which in turn may offer new growth opportunities and counteract the direct losses from trade shocks. The third essay uses data on U.S. Commuting zones to investigate the heterogeneous impacts of industrial variety on the development of different sectors. The results suggest that industrial variety has a greater contribution to employment growth in two types of sectors: manufacturing industries that are technologically intensive, and geographically-agglomerated industries. This suggests the roles of industrial variety in contributing to growth are principally sector-based, and significantly depend on region-industry specific conditions.