Essays on Financial Networks, Systemic Risk and Policy

Essays on Financial Networks, Systemic Risk and Policy
Author: Peng Sui
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

This essay consists of three chapters. Chapter one extends Allen and Gale's (2000) model to a core-periphery network structure. We identify that the financial contagion in core-periphery structure is different to Allen and Gale (2000) in two aspects. Firstly, the shocks to the periphery bank and to the core bank have different contagion processes. Secondly, contagion not only depends on the amount of claims a bank has on a failed bank, but also on the number of links the failed neighbour has. Chapter two studies the policy effect on financial network formation when the government has time-inconsistency problem on bailing out systemically important bank. We show that if interbank deposits are guaranteed, the equilibrium network structure is different from the one under market discipline. We show that under market discipline individual banks can collectively increase the component size using interbank intermediation in order to increases the severity of systemic risk and hence trigger the bailout. If interbank intermediation is costly the equilibrium network has core-periphery structure. Chapter three follows Acharya and Yorulmazer's (2007) study of the "too many to fail" problem in a two-bank model. They argue that in order to reduce the social losses, the financial regulator finds it ex post optimal to bail out every troubled bank if they fail together, because the acquisition of liquidated assets by other investors result in a high misallocation cost. In contrast to their paper, we argue that there is no "too many to fail" bailout, unless banking capital is costly and market price sensitive. We argue that market price sensitive capital can induce banks herding and high social cost.

Three Essays on Systemic Risk

Three Essays on Systemic Risk
Author: Benjamin Rodney Woodruff
Publisher:
Total Pages: 192
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

I examine three topics related to systemic risk which not usually considered in mainstream research. I find evidence that coffee price risk might be hedged by Ugandan producers, possibly mitigating the risk of economy-wide devastation. I provide evidence that there is a long history of a relationship between real estate lending and bank failures, which have threatened economic collapse several times in American history. And I show the potential benefits of an options market for temporary shelter for persons fleeing natural disasters, history's most unforgiving threat to individuals and nations. All three papers contribute to the understanding of systemic risk, providing important insights for policymakers and avenues for further research.

Essays on Systemic Risk

Essays on Systemic Risk
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Systemic Risk: Is the Banking Sector Special? In this paper we empirically investigate the degree of systemic risk in the banking sector versus other industry sectors in the United States and in Germany. We characterize the systemic risk in each sector by the lower tail dependence of stock returns. Our study differs from the existing literature in three aspects. First, we compare the degree of systemic risk in the banking sector with other sectors in the economy. Second, we analyze how the systemic risk depends on the state of the economy. Third, we address the problem of systemic risk in an international context by comparing the US and the German banking system. Our study shows in most cases considered that the systemic risk of the banking sector is significantly larger than in all other sectors. Especially it differs from the systemic risk in the insurance sector, the second strongly regulated financial subsystem. Moreover, the degree of systemic risk is higher under adverse market conditions. Finally, we find that the banking sector in Germany shows a lower systemic risk than the US banking sector. Chapter 3: Intra-Industry Contagion Effects of Earnings Surprises in the Banking Sector In this paper we investigate whether contagion is present in the banking sector by analyzing how banks are affected by negative earnings surprises from their competitors. The banking sector is of crucial importance for the economy and, thus, highly regulated on an individual bank level. However, a high degree of contagion risk should call for a regulation of the financial network rather than solely regulating on an individual level. To be able to make a judgment about the magnitude of possible contagion effects we compare the results of the banking sector with the results of the non-banking industries. We find that earnings surprises cause significant contagion in the banking sector. In contrast, we do not find this effect in the non-banking sector.

Essays in Financial Systemic Risk

Essays in Financial Systemic Risk
Author: Hieu Vu Dang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 139
Release: 2020
Genre: Asset-backed financing
ISBN:

In this dissertation, I study the financial systemic risk from firm-level perspectives. Chapter 1 investigates a breakdown of the total financial system risk into individual contributors and sources. Chapter 2 studies a theoretical model about the active balance sheet management of individual bank in securitization. Chapter 3 and 4 present empirical evidence about securitization asset choices of banks when they face different constraints. Chapter 5 provides a brief summary of findings in this dissertation. In chapter 1, I propose a novel systemic importance (SI) index that tracks the contribution of a financial institution to the total financial system risk. That risk measure can be decomposed into idiosyncratic and spillover risk contribution to further study the risk characteristics of each firm. Using equity return data from 1965 to 2018, I find two important results. First, the spillover risk can account for approximately 80% of the aggregate financial system risk, which emphasizes the importance of contagion risk as a major amplification mechanism of shocks during a systemic event. Second, a portfolio of the top 20 most systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs), ranked by SI index, earns a significantly lower risk-adjusted return than their counterparts. This substantial equity funding cost advantage of approximately 4% per year on average implies that the ex-ante implicit government guarantee for the “too-important-to-fail” is priced by the market. In chapter 2, I develop a theoretical model that features two benefits of securitization. First, banks can reduce idiosyncratic risks and enhance risk-absorbing capacity by converting a fraction of their risky investments into securitized assets. Second, securitized assets require less regulatory capital, helping banks obtain a higher leverage without breaking the regulation. This chapter studies effects of the two motives above, namely risk-transferring and regulatory arbitrage, on bank portfolio choices. My analytical results predict that banks would securitize safer loans and retain only higher-risk, higher-return assets that justify their regulatory capital cost. In chapter 3, I analyze new data points in the recently revamped HMDA data to examine mortgage securitization decision choices and motives of all non-exempt banks in the US. Combining with the bank-level data from Call Reports, I find that capital-constrained banks retain riskier loans and involve more in the securitization market to optimize return on capital and keep regulatory ratios in control. On the other hand, risk-constrained banks use securitization mainly for the purpose of risk and liquidity improvement. When putting together, risk transferring seems to dominate regulatory arbitrage as the main reason banks engage in securitization. Chapter 4 serves as a complementary case study to Chapter 3, in which I investigate the mortgage loan approval and securitization decision of PNC Bank. There are three interesting findings: First, the bank uses third-party automated underwriting systems to originate over 90% of its conforming residential mortgage loans and then sell more than 70% of them. Second, the bank retains safer loans on balance sheet, which emphasizes the role of securitization as a risk-transferring mechanism. Third, compared to a non-depository financial institution (shadow bank), a traditional commercial bank like PNC behaves differently and shows a clear presence of active securitization management. With a stable deposit funding channel, PNC is able to originate jumbo loans at a higher approval rate, retain more loans on balance sheet, and selectively choose to sell off riskier loans.

Three Essays on Financial Risks Using High Frequency Data

Three Essays on Financial Risks Using High Frequency Data
Author: Serge Luther Nyawa Womo
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

This thesis is about financial risks and high frequency data, with a particular focus on financial systemic risk, the risk of high dimensional portfolios and market microstructure noise. It is organized on three chapters. The first chapter provides a continuous time reduced-form model for the propagation of negative idiosyncratic shocks within a financial system. Using common factors and mutually exciting jumps both in price and volatility, we distinguish between sources of systemic failure such as macro risk drivers, connectedness and contagion. The estimation procedure relies on the GMM approach and takes advantage of high frequency data. We use models' parameters to define weighted, directed networks for shock transmission, and we provide new measures for the financial system fragility. We construct paths for the propagation of shocks, firstly within a number of key US banks and insurance companies, and secondly within the nine largest S&P sectors during the period 2000-2014. We find that beyond common factors, systemic dependency has two related but distinct channels: price and volatility jumps. In the second chapter, we develop a new factor-based estimator of the realized covolatility matrix, applicable in situations when the number of assets is large and the high-frequency data are contaminated with microstructure noises. Our estimator relies on the assumption of a factor structure for the noise component, separate from the latent systematic risk factors that characterize the cross-sectional variation in the frictionless returns. The new estimator provides theoretically more efficient and finite-sample more accurate estimates of large-scale integrated covolatility, correlation, and inverse covolatility matrices than other recently developed realized estimation procedures. These theoretical and simulation-based findings are further corroborated by an empirical application related to portfolio allocation and risk minimization involving several hundred individual stocks. The last chapter presents a factor-based methodology to estimate microstructure noise characteristics and frictionless prices under a high dimensional setup. We rely on factor assumptions both in latent returns and microstructure noise. The methodology is able to estimate rotations of common factors, loading coefficients and volatilities in microstructure noise for a huge number of stocks. Using stocks included in the S&P500 during the period spanning January 2007 to December 2011, we estimate microstructure noise common factors and compare them to some market-wide liquidity measures computed from real financial variables. We obtain that: the first factor is correlated to the average spread and the average number of shares outstanding; the second and third factors are related to the spread; the fourth and fifth factors are significantly linked to the closing log-price. In addition, volatilities of microstructure noise factors are widely explained by the average spread, the average volume, the average number of trades and the average trade size.