Essays in Monetary and International Economics

Essays in Monetary and International Economics
Author: Tokhir Mirzoev
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2005
Genre: Interest rates
ISBN:

Abstract: This dissertation is comprised of three essays in monetary and international macroeconomics. The first essay, titled "A Dynamic Model of Exogenous Exchange Rate Pass-Through", examines a two-country open economy model with sticky prices where exporters' choice of invoicing currency is endogenous. Besides generating incomplete pass-through, the model yields three main results. First, firms' invoicing strategy is generally time-varying. Second, average pass-through is asymmetric in times of persistent depreciation and appreciation. Finally, cross-country differences in money supply variability produce an origin-based asymmetry: different average pass-through rates into import and export prices. The second essay, titled "Limited Commitment, Inaction and Optimal Monetary Policy", examines the optimal frequency of monetary policy meetings when their schedule is pre-announced. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we show that in the standard New Keynesian framework infrequent but periodic revision of monetary policy may be desirable even when there are no explicit costs of policy adjustment. Second, we solve for the optimal frequency of policy adjustment and characterize its determinants. When applied to the U.S. economy, our analysis suggests that the Federal Open Market Committee should revise the federal funds target rate no more than twice a year. Finally, the third essay, titled "Does the Federal Reserve Do What It Says It Expects to Do?", studies the behavior of the Federal Open Market Committee in setting the federal funds target rate and making a bias announcement. The current bias concerning the next interest rate decision should be the optimal forecast based on the committee's interest rate policy rule. Therefore, the interest rate implied by the estimated policy should be consistent not only with the observed rate, but also with the observed bias announcement. We jointly estimate interest rate and bias announcement decision rules and find strong consistency between the two decisions in their response to inflation. However, the response to measures of economic activity is found inconsistent.

Essays in Open Economy Monetary Policy

Essays in Open Economy Monetary Policy
Author: Pedro Castro
Publisher:
Total Pages: 158
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

International economic integration has risen during the last decades and the interdependence between each economy and the rest of the world has become central for policy decisions. My dissertation contributes to the debate about the conduct of monetary policy in a financially integrated world. In the first chapter of the dissertation I discuss the relationship between domestic policies and the currency denomination of foreign debt. Foreign debt is a double-edged sword. It allows countries to invest more than what would be possible given their own savings, thereby achieving preferable allocations that would not otherwise be feasible. However, it is the root of several crises. Foreign debt is especially hazardous when denominated in foreign currency; in such cases exchange rate depreciations increase the real value of the debt. An important question then is what determines the currency denomination of foreign debt. I use the adoption of Inflation Targeting (IT) in several economies during the last two decades to evaluate the importance of domestic policies in the determination of the currency denomination of debt. In order to control for possible endogeneity in IT adoption, I use matching and instrumental variables estimators; both generate similar estimates. The results show that monetary policy can have substantial effects on the amount of debt in foreign currency and that a more flexible exchange rate regime increases the use of domestic currency in foreign borrowing. In the second chapter of the dissertation I investigate the relationship between central banks balance sheets and monetary policy. Heavy foreign exchange intervention by central banks of emerging markets have led to sizeable expansions of their balance sheets in recent years - accumulating foreign assets and non-money domestic liabilities (the latter due to sterilization operations). With domestic liabilities being mostly of short-term maturity and denominated in local currency, movements in domestic monetary policy interest rates can have sizable effects on central bank's net worth. In this chapter I examine empirically whether balance sheets considerations influence the conduct of monetary policy. The methodology involves the estimation of interest rate rules for a sample of 41 countries and testing whether deviations from the rule can be explained by a measure of central bank financial strength. My findings, using linear and nonlinear techniques, suggest that central bank financial strength can be a statistically significant factor explaining large negative interest rate deviations from "optimal" levels. In the third chapter I investigate whether countries that adopted the IT framework for monetary policy have been constrained by exchange rate consideration when taking policy decisions. I present stylized facts which suggest that exchange rates have been allowed to float relatively free in IT countries. I employ Bayesian Analysis techniques to estimate a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) structural model for twenty two IT economies and compute posterior odds tests to check whether the central banks systematically respond to exchange rate movements. The main result is that only five central banks directly respond to exchange rate movements; all the other IT central banks do not respond to the exchange rate. I also confirm that IT central banks have been conducting strictly inflationary policies, raising real interest rates in response to increases in inflation.

Essays in Macroeconomics and International Economics

Essays in Macroeconomics and International Economics
Author: Dohyeon Lee
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2020
Genre:
ISBN:

The first chapter ["Optimal Monetary Policy in an Open Economy with Shocks to UIP"] studies optimal cooperative monetary policy between two symmetric countries where shocks to UIP (uncovered interest parity) lead to deviation from the UIP condition. UIP shock results in welfare loss because it distorts the relative consumption between the two countries, which would propagate into inefficient levels of output. Optimal monetary policy, while unable to affect the path of relative consumption, can improve efficiency compared to the flexible price allocation by reducing the distortions in output at the expense of a modest increase in price dispersion. Optimal capital control, in the form of discriminating the interest rates faced by the households and the financial intermediaries, would nullify the impact of UIP shock. The second chapter ["Offshoring and Segregation by Skill: Theory and Evidence"] (with Gueyon Kim) examines the labor market consequences of offshoring. We use the Danish employer-employee matched data together with the newly constructed skill measures to evaluate the effect of offshoring on wages and reallocation of workers within offshorable occupations. Offshoring reduces domestic worker wages; and increases the probability of reallocation away from the high-productivity firms to the low-productivity ones. The least skilled workers further face a greater risk of switching out to a less competitive sector. On the firm-side, offshoring improves the average skill of in-house workers at a lower cost. By estimating a worker-firm matching model, we examine the mechanisms of how offshoring affects labor market inequality and further assess the quantitative importance of various competing hypotheses such as technological change and the expansion of higher education, in addition to offshoring. We find substantially different effects: technology mainly increases the inequality between firms in terms of worker skill quality and average wages, while offshoring mitigates this rising trend. In the third chapter ["Selective Accumulation of Ideas: Accounting for the Decline in Entry Rate"], I explain the secular decline in entry rate of new firms using the mechanism of selective accumulation of ideas over time. In the model, an idea is a blueprint for a new product that arrives exogenously. An individual finds an idea of random quality drawn from an exogenous distribution, and makes an occupational choice of whether to become an entrepreneur using that idea, or to work for other entrepreneurs while discarding the idea. As ideas accumulate over time, the equilibrium threshold idea endogenously rises over time, and this would lower the rate of entry. With an expanding set of industries, the model also explains the industry life cycle, where the number of firms in each industry first increases and then decreases over time.

Essays on International Macroeconomics and Policy

Essays on International Macroeconomics and Policy
Author: Tian Xia
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN: 9780438628762

As the world economy becomes rapidly integrated through the globalization of markets for goods and services, it is crucial to understand how cross-country linkages through goods and financial markets explain observed business cycles in data. Furthermore, interdependent open economies imply that optimal policy is unlikely to be responding to domestic shocks only. This dissertation studies various aspects of open economies from a macroeconomic perspective and discusses related theoretical policy implications. Chapter 1 investigates the implication of intermediate goods on optimal monetary policy in open economies, and in particular, focusing on the welfare gains from monetary cooperation. In a relatively standard two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with input-output relations, I demonstrate that introducing intermediate goods can amplify the welfare gains caused by cost-push shocks by an order of magnitude larger. A detailed analysis on the equilibrium dynamics highlights a new channel that is absent in the previous literature: non-cooperative central banks respond differently to shocks in the intermediate goods market versus shocks in the final goods market, even if these shocks generate the same distortions when the two central banks cooperate. Furthermore, I find that increasing the degree of openness in the intermediate goods market can reduce the welfare gains from monetary cooperation. This casts doubt on whether the recent trend in international economic integration may justify the potential need for international monetary cooperation. Chapter 2 develops a simple framework for computing equilibrium shares of trade currency invoicing in open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. The solution method follows closely to Devereux and Sutherland (2011)'s method in solving portfolio choice by applying information from second-order approximations of equilibrium conditions to solving zero-order portfolio shares. The framework is flexible enough to be extended to a Rotemberg sticky price model. To illustrate the approach, I use a simple symmetric two-country model and show that the results are consistent with existing theoretical findings on how monetary policy affects exchange rate pass-through. Chapter 3 investigates the interaction between inequality and financial development in determining the condition for rational asset bubbles to emerge in general equilibrium. I develop a simple overlapping generations model (OLG) with a production economy and financial frictions, which shows that wage inequality can cause dynamic inefficiency in an economy with an underdeveloped financial sector. Furthermore, the model developed in the chapter indicates that trade integration can create asset bubbles through the channel of increasing inequality. The result is consistent with observations where developing countries with export-led growth seem to experience episodes of bubble-like asset price booms and busts in the last three decades.