Three Essays on Liquidity Shocks and Their Implication for Asset Pricing and Valuation Models

Three Essays on Liquidity Shocks and Their Implication for Asset Pricing and Valuation Models
Author: Nardos M. Beyene
Publisher:
Total Pages: 72
Release: 2019
Genre: Capital assets pricing model
ISBN:

The main objective of my three essays is to incorporate liquidity shocks and the linkages between the liquidity condition of financial markets into asset pricing and valuation models. The first essay focuses on the liquidity adjusted capital asset pricing model, while the second and the third essays examine the popular asset valuation model called the Fed model. The first essay investigates the pricing of the commonality risk in the U.S. stock market by using a more comprehensive market illiquidity measure that can reflect the liquidity condition of different asset markets. This measure is given by the yield difference between commercial paper and treasury bill. In addition, consistent with the definition of commonality risk, I form portfolios based on the sensitivity of each stock's illiquidity to the market-wide illiquidity. Using monthly data from January 1997 to December 2016 and the conditional version of the Liquidity-adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (LCAPM) estimated by the Dynamic Conditional Correlation approach, I find a significant commonality risk premium of 0.022% and 0.014% per year for 12-month and 24-month holding periods, respectively. This premium estimate is significantly higher than those found using the market illiquidity measure and estimation procedures from previous studies. These findings provide evidence that a security's easiness in terms of tradability at times of liquidity dry up is extremely important. It is also higher than the excess return associated with other forms of liquidity risk. In addition, the paper finds a variation in the estimated commonality risk premium over time, with values being higher during periods of market turmoil. Moreover, estimating the LCAPM with the yield difference between commercial paper and treasury bill as a measure of market illiquidity performs better in predicting returns for the low commonality risk portfolios. The second essay examines the inflation illusion hypothesis in explaining the high correlation between government bond yield and stock yield as implied by the Fed model. According to the inflation illusion hypothesis, there is mis-pricing in the stock market due to the failure of investors to adjust their cash flow expectation to inflation. This led to a co-movement in stock yield and government bond yield. I use the Gordon Growth model to determine the mis-pricing component in the stock market. In the next step, the correlation between bond yield and stock yield is estimated using the Asymmetric Generalized Dynamic Conditional Correlation (AG-DCC) model. Finally, I regress this correlation on mis-pricing and two other control variables, GDP and inflation. I use monthly data from January 1983 to December 2016. Consistent with the Fed model, the paper finds a significant positive correlation between the yield on government bonds and stock yield, with an average correlation of 0.942 - 0.997. However, in contrast to the inflation illusion hypothesis, mis-pricing in the stock market has an insignificant impact on this correlation. The third essay provides liquidity shocks contagion between the stock market and the corporate bond market as the driving force behind the high correlation between the yield on stocks and the yield on government bonds as implied by the Fed model. The idea is that when liquidity drops in the stock market, firms' credit risk rises because the deterioration in the liquidity of equities traded in the stock market increases the firms' default probability. Consequently, investors' preferences shift away from corporate bonds to government bonds. Higher demand for government bonds keeps their yield low, leading to a co-movement of government bond yield and stock yield. In order to test this liquidity-based explanation, the paper first examines the interdependence between liquidity in the stock and corporate bond markets using the Markov switching model, and a time series non-parametric technique called the Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM). In order to see the response of government bond yield and stock yield to liquidity shocks in the stock market, the study implements an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Using monthly data from January 1997 to December 2016, the paper presents strong evidence of liquidity shocks transmission form the stock market to the corporate bond market. Furthermore, liquidity shocks in the stock market are found to have a significant impact on the stock yield. These findings support the illiquidity contagion explanation provided in this paper.

Three Essays on Stock Market Liquidity and Earnings Seasons

Three Essays on Stock Market Liquidity and Earnings Seasons
Author: Andrei I. Nikiforov
Publisher:
Total Pages: 136
Release: 2009
Genre: Electronic dissertations
ISBN:

In these essays, I identify the effects of earnings seasons (i.e., the clustering of earnings releases), on stock market liquidity and asset pricing. In the first essay, I document strong seasonal regularities associated with aggregate earnings announcements. Applying the large body of literature linking earnings announcements to liquidity effects, I argue that these earnings seasons create market-wide liquidity shocks and I show that both liquidity betas and liquidity risk change during earnings seasons In the second essay, I test the impact of earnings seasons on commonality in liquidity as measured by both spreads and depths. I find that commonality significantly decreases during the four weeks of each calendar quarter when most companies release their earnings. These findings contribute to the literature by identifying and examining the clustering effect of firm-specific information on commonality in liquidity. In the third essay, I extend the study of the liquidity effects of earnings seasons to a sample of 20 countries. I find that the international data corroborate both hypotheses. I also find that the aggregate quality of accounting information, and the duration and frequency of interim reporting periods are important determinants of the liquidity effects (both liquidity betas and commonality in liquidity) during earnings seasons.

香港研究博士论文注释书目

香港研究博士论文注释书目
Author: Frank Joseph Shulman
Publisher: Hong Kong University Press
Total Pages: 878
Release: 2001-01-01
Genre: Language Arts & Disciplines
ISBN: 9789622093973

A descriptively annotated, multidisciplinary, cross-referenced and extensively indexed guide to 2,395 dissertations that are concerned either in whole or in part with Hong Kong and with Hong Kong Chinese students and emigres throughout the world.

The Origins and Development of Financial Markets and Institutions

The Origins and Development of Financial Markets and Institutions
Author: Jeremy Atack
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Total Pages: 497
Release: 2009-03-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1139477048

Collectively, mankind has never had it so good despite periodic economic crises of which the current sub-prime crisis is merely the latest example. Much of this success is attributable to the increasing efficiency of the world's financial institutions as finance has proved to be one of the most important causal factors in economic performance. In a series of insightful essays, financial and economic historians examine how financial innovations from the seventeenth century to the present have continually challenged established institutional arrangements, forcing change and adaptation by governments, financial intermediaries, and financial markets. Where these have been successful, wealth creation and growth have followed. When they failed, growth slowed and sometimes economic decline has followed. These essays illustrate the difficulties of co-ordinating financial innovations in order to sustain their benefits for the wider economy, a theme that will be of interest to policy makers as well as economic historians.

Finance and Growth

Finance and Growth
Author: Ross Levine
Publisher:
Total Pages: 130
Release: 2004
Genre: Economic development
ISBN:

"This paper reviews, appraises, and critiques theoretical and empirical research on the connections between the operation of the financial system and economic growth. While subject to ample qualifications and countervailing views, the preponderance of evidence suggests that both financial intermediaries and markets matter for growth and that reverse causality alone is not driving this relationship. Furthermore, theory and evidence imply that better developed financial systems ease external financing constraints facing firms, which illuminates one mechanism through which financial development influences economic growth. The paper highlights many areas needing additional research"--NBER website