Essays on Stochastic Volatility and Jumps

Essays on Stochastic Volatility and Jumps
Author: Diep Ngoc Duong
Publisher:
Total Pages: 184
Release: 2013
Genre: Econometrics
ISBN:

This dissertation comprises three essays on financial economics and econometrics. The first essay outlines and expands upon further testing results from Bhardwaj, Corradi and Swanson (BCS: 2008) and Corradi and Swanson (2011). In particular, specification tests in the spirit of the conditional Kolmogorov test of Andrews (1997) that rely on block bootstrap resampling methods are first discussed. We then broaden our discussion from single process specification testing to multiple process model selection by discussing how to construct predictive densities and how to compare the accuracy of predictive densities derived from alternative (possibly misspecified) diffusion models. In particular, we generalize simulation steps outlined in Cai and Swanson (2011) to multifactor models where the number of latent variables is larger than three. In the second essay, we begin by discussing important developments in volatility modeling, with a focus on time varying and stochastic volatility as well as the "model free" estimation of volatility via the use of so-called realized volatility, and variants thereof called realized measures. In an empirical investigation, we use realized measures to investigate the role of "small" and large" jumps in the realized variation of stock price returns and show that jumps do matter in the relative contribution to the total variation of the process, when examining individual stock returns, as well as market indices. The third essay examines the predictive content of a variety of realized measures of jump power variations, all formed on the basis of power transformations of instantaneous returns. Our prediction involves estimating members of the linear and nonlinear extended Heterogeneous Autoregressive of the Realized Volatility (HAR-RV) class of models, using S & P 500 futures data as well as stocks in the Dow 30, for the period 1993-2009. Our findings suggest that past "large" jump power variations help less in the prediction of future realized volatility, than past "small" jump power variations. Our empirical findings also suggest that past realized signed jump power variations, which have not previously been examined in this literature, are strongly correlated with future volatility.

Three Essays on Quantitative Finance

Three Essays on Quantitative Finance
Author: Jun Ni
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

This dissertation contains three essays.The first part studies the continuous-time dynamics of VIX with stochasticvolatility and jumps in VIX and volatility. Built on the general parametric affinemodel with stochastic volatility and jumps in the logarithm of VIX, we derive alinear relationship between the stochastic volatility factor and the VVIX index. Wedetect the existence of a co-jump of VIX and VVIX and put forward a double-jumpstochastic volatility model for VIX through its joint property with VVIX. Usingthe VVIX index as a proxy for stochastic volatility, we use the MCMC method toestimate the dynamics of VIX. Comparing nested models of VIX, we show thatthe jump in VIX and the volatility factor are statistically significant. The jumpintensity is also stochastic. We analyze the impact of the jump factor on VIXdynamics.The second part establishes a forecast framework for the bond excess return basedon macroeconomics fundamentals. Empirical evidence has suggested that excessbond returns are forecastable with macroeconomics fundamentals. In our study, webuild new links to tie the forecastable variation in excess bond returns to underlyingmacroeconomic series. Based on two types of models, the linear model and additivemodel, and utilizing different combinations of screening methods, nonlinearizationtechniques and regularization techniques, we extract different factor combinationsfrom 131 macroeconomic series, including employment, housing, financial, andinflation factors. This approach results in stronger forecast power for the excessbond returns compared with existing macro-based return predictors. The nonlineareffect of the macroeconomic predictors on the excess bond returns is recovered ifwe incorporate nonlinearized macro data in the analysis. A horse race comparingdifferent variable selection approaches allows us to propose a robust model thatgenerates highly accurate predictions of bond risk premia. Finally, we perform acomprehensive analysis of risk premia with an ETF dataset.The third part of this dissertation is a summary of traditional asset allocationmethods performance on Chinese market. Since traditional asset allocation methods are well analyzed in US capital market, similarly, we want to conduct a comprehensiveanalysis of asset allocation techniques on Chinese market. Based on a horseracecomparison among the trading performance by different asset allocation approacheswith investment universe of Chinese capital market indices and the associatedETFs, we achieve a clear understanding on the relative ranking of different methods,finding the link between trading performance with different parameter estimationtime windows and different investment universe as well. To explain the differencein the trading performance of several methods, we perform a simulation study andattribute bad performance as the inaccuracy of return estimation.

Surveys in Stochastic Processes

Surveys in Stochastic Processes
Author: Jochen Blath
Publisher: European Mathematical Society
Total Pages: 270
Release: 2011
Genre: Business mathematics
ISBN: 9783037190722

The 33rd Bernoulli Society Conference on Stochastic Processes and Their Applications was held in Berlin from July 27 to July 31, 2009. It brought together more than 600 researchers from 49 countries to discuss recent progress in the mathematical research related to stochastic processes, with applications ranging from biology to statistical mechanics, finance and climatology. This book collects survey articles highlighting new trends and focal points in the area written by plenary speakers of the conference, all of them outstanding international experts. A particular aim of this collection is to inspire young scientists to pursue research goals in the wide range of fields represented in this volume.

Essays on the Specification Testing for Dynamic Asset Pricing Models

Essays on the Specification Testing for Dynamic Asset Pricing Models
Author: Jaeho Yun
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

This dissertation consists of three essays on the subjects of specification testing on dynamic asset pricing models. In the first essay (with Yongmiao Hong), "A Simulation Test for Continuous-Time Models," we propose a simulation method to implement Hong and Li's (2005) transition density-based test for continuous-time models. The idea is to simulate a sequence of dynamic probability integral transforms, which is the key ingredient of Hong and Li's (2005) test. The proposed procedure is generally applicable whether or not the transition density of a continuous-time model has a closed form and is simple and computationally inexpensive. A Monte Carlo study shows that the proposed simulation test has very similar sizes and powers to the original Hong and Li's (2005) test. Furthermore, the performance of the simulation test is robust to the choice of the number of simulation iterations and the number of discretization steps between adjacent observations. In the second essay (with Yongmiao Hong), "A Specification Test for Stock Return Models," we propose a simulation-based specification testing method applicable to stochastic volatility models, based on Hong and Li (2005) and Johannes et al. (2008). We approximate a dynamic probability integral transform in Hong and Li' s (2005) density forecasting test, via the particle filters proposed by Johannes et al. (2008). With the proposed testing method, we conduct a comprehensive empirical study on some popular stock return models, such as the GARCH and stochastic volatility models, using the S&P 500 index returns. Our empirical analysis shows that all models are misspecified in terms of density forecast. Among models considered, however, the stochastic volatility models perform relatively well in both in- and out-of-sample. We also find that modeling the leverage effect provides a substantial improvement in the log stochastic volatility models. Our value-at-risk performance analysis results also support stochastic volatility models rather than GARCH models. In the third essay (with Yongmiao Hong), "Option Pricing and Density Forecast Performances of the Affine Jump Diffusion Models: the Role of Time-Varying Jump Risk Premia," we investigate out-of-sample option pricing and density forecast performances for the affine jump diffusion (AJD) models, using the S&P 500 stock index and the associated option contracts. In particular, we examine the role of time-varying jump risk premia in the AJD specifications. For comparison purposes, nonlinear asymmetric GARCH models are also considered. To evaluate density forecasting performances, we extend Hong and Li's (2005) specification testing method to be applicable to the famous AJD class of models, whether or not model-implied spot volatilities are available. For either case, we develop (i) the Fourier inversion of the closed-form conditional characteristic function and (ii) the Monte Carlo integration based on the particle filters proposed by Johannes et al. (2008). Our empirical analysis shows strong evidence in favor of time-varying jump risk premia in pricing cross-sectional options over time. However, for density forecasting performances, we could not find an AJD specification that successfully reconcile the dynamics implied by both time-series and options data.

THREE ESSAYS ON OBSERVABLE COVARIATES IN OPTION PRICING.

THREE ESSAYS ON OBSERVABLE COVARIATES IN OPTION PRICING.
Author: Yoontae Jeon
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2017
Genre:
ISBN:

This dissertation contains three essays on observable covariates in option pricing. In the first essay, I propose firm-specific public news arrival from Factiva database as an observable covariate in equity options market and study how the public news arrival is priced. I first establish the empirical relationship between the firm-specific public news arrival and jumps in individual equity returns. Subsequently, I build a continuous-time stochastic volatility jump diffusion model where news arrivals driving the jump dynamics. When estimated on equity options data for 20 individual firms, the premia placed on jump frequency and size turn out to be consistent with the theories highlighting both positive and negative effects of public news arrival. The second essay, based on a joint work with Peter Christoffersen, Bruno Feunou and Chayawat Ornthanalai, studies how the stock market illiquidity affects the market crash risk. Our empirical approach is to estimate a continuous-time model with stochastic volatility and dynamic crash probability where stock market illiquidity is used as an observable covariate driving the crash probability. While the crash probability is time-varying, its dynamic depends only weakly on return variance once we include market illiquidity as an economic variable in the model. This finding suggests that the relationship between variance and jump risk found in the literature is largely due to their common exposure to market illiquidity. Our study highlights the importance of equity market frictions in index return dynamics and explains why prior studies find that crash risk increases with market uncertainty level. The third essay, based on a joint work with Peter Christoffersen and Bruno Feunou, proposes the realized jump variation measure constructed from the intraday S returns data as an observable covariate that helps pricing of index options. The volatility and jump intensity dynamics in the model are directly driven by model-free empirical measures of diffusive volatility and jump variation. Because the empirical measures are observed in discrete intervals, our option valuation model is cast in discrete time, allowing for straightforward filtering and estimation of the model. When estimated on S index options and returns the new model performs well compared with standard benchmarks.