Three Essays in Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Selection

Three Essays in Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Selection
Author: Dimitris Korompilis-Magkas
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2010
Genre:
ISBN:

This thesis explores several aspects of Bayesian model selection in time series forecasting of macroeconomic variables. The contribution is provided in three essays. In the first essay (Chapter 2) I forecast quarterly US inflation based on the generalized Phillips curve using econometric methods which incorporate dynamic model averaging. These methods not only allow for coefficients to change over time, but also for the entire forecasting model to change over time. I find that dynamic model averaging leads to substantial forecasting improvements over simple benchmark regressions and more sophisticated approaches such as those using time varying coefficient models. I also provide evidence on which sets of predictors are relevant for forecasting in each period. In the second essay (Chapter 3) I address the issue of improving the forecasting performance of vector autoregressions (VARs) when the set of available predictors is inconveniently large to handle with methods and diagnostics used in traditional small-scale models. First, I summarize available information from a large dataset into a considerably smaller set of variables through factors estimated using standard principal components. However, even in the case of reducing the dimension of the data the true number of factors may still be large. For that reason I introduce in my analysis simple and efficient Bayesian model selction methods. I conduct model estimation and selection of predictors automatically through a stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) algorithm which requires minimal input by the user. I apply these methods to forecast 8 main U.S. macroeconomic variables using 124 potential predictors. I find improved out of sample fit in high dimensional specifications that would otherwise suffer from the proliferation of parameters. Finally, in the third essay (Chapter 4) I develop methods for automatic selection of variables in forecasting Bayesian vector autoregressions (VARs) using the Gibbs sampler. In particular, I extend the algorithms of Chapter 3 and provide computationally efficient algorithms for stochastic variable selection in generic (linear and nonlinear) VARs. The performance of the proposed variable selection method is assessed in a small Monte Carlo experiment, and in forecasting four short macroeconmic series for the UK using time-varying parameters vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs). I find that restricted models consistently improve upon their unrestricted counterparts in forecasting, showing the merits of variable selection in selecting parsimonious models.

Three Essays on Monetary Macroeconomics An Empirical Examination of the Soundness Of the Alternative Monetary Model and Monetary Policy in Canada

Three Essays on Monetary Macroeconomics An Empirical Examination of the Soundness Of the Alternative Monetary Model and Monetary Policy in Canada
Author: Reed Benjamin Collis
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

This series of essays explores the soundness of the Alternative Monetary Model (AMM) of Smithin (2013, 2018) via an examination of the monetary policy and monetary transmission mechanism in Canada. The AMM has assumptions that are more consistent with the real world than other approaches to macroeconomics and monetary theory, and the reliability of the AMM through the business cycle will be examined. The model was tested using abduction and numerical methods. The results were also tested econometrically, and the predictions of the directional change of the variables were found to have an accuracy of 91%. Historical simulations were conducted to examine the ability of the AMM to mimic the time profiles of actual economic events. The simulations indicate that if the central bank were to have implemented a real interest rate rule during these historical periods, there would have been better economic outcomes. The monetary transmission mechanism between the Bank of Canada and commercial banks is examined. Evidence suggests this relationship has changed over the period of study and that monetary policy changes have affected commercial bank activities more swiftly since the 1980s. Additional evidence supporting the endogeneity of the money supply was found. Debt dynamics were examined, and certain convergence conditions for debt-to-GDP ratios were established. In almost all cases balanced budgets are not necessary to maintain a stable debt-to-GDP ratio. In much of the existing theoretical literature, it is assumed that interest rates are greater than the growth rate to maintain the assumptions of the transversality conditions, the no-Ponzi constraint, and Ricardian equivalence. However, it was found that in half of the periods studied, Canadas real interest rates were less than the real growth rate violating these assumptions. Monetary policy was found to have a significant effect on government interest rates, whereas fiscal policy was only found to have a marginal effect. This lends credence to the idea that monetary policy should play a critical supporting role in government debt sustainability, through a real interest rate rule, as this has a strong effect on both interest rates at commercial banks and bond yields throughout the economy.

Flexible Bayesian Regression Modelling

Flexible Bayesian Regression Modelling
Author: Yanan Fan
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 302
Release: 2019-10-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0128158638

Flexible Bayesian Regression Modeling is a step-by-step guide to the Bayesian revolution in regression modeling, for use in advanced econometric and statistical analysis where datasets are characterized by complexity, multiplicity, and large sample sizes, necessitating the need for considerable flexibility in modeling techniques. It reviews three forms of flexibility: methods which provide flexibility in their error distribution; methods which model non-central parts of the distribution (such as quantile regression); and finally models that allow the mean function to be flexible (such as spline models). Each chapter discusses the key aspects of fitting a regression model. R programs accompany the methods. This book is particularly relevant to non-specialist practitioners with intermediate mathematical training seeking to apply Bayesian approaches in economics, biology, finance, engineering and medicine. Introduces powerful new nonparametric Bayesian regression techniques to classically trained practitioners Focuses on approaches offering both superior power and methodological flexibility Supplemented with instructive and relevant R programs within the text Covers linear regression, nonlinear regression and quantile regression techniques Provides diverse disciplinary case studies for correlation and optimization problems drawn from Bayesian analysis ‘in the wild’

Var Models in Macroeconomics - New Developments and Applications

Var Models in Macroeconomics - New Developments and Applications
Author: Thomas B. Fomby
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2013-12-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781781907528

Advances in Econometrics publishes original scholarly econometric papers with the intention of expanding the use of developed and emerging econometric techniques by disseminating ideas on the theory and practice of econometrics, throughout the empirical economic, business and social science literature.

Applied Macroeconometrics

Applied Macroeconometrics
Author: Carlo A. Favero
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
Total Pages: 310
Release: 2001
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780198296850

The objective of this book is the discussion and the practical illustration of techniques used in applied macroeconometrics. There are currently three competing approaches: the LSE (London School of Economics) approach, the VAR approach, and the intertemporal optimization/Real Business Cycle approach. This book discusses and illustrates the empirical research strategy of these three alternative approaches, pairing them with extensive discussions and replications of the relevant empirical work. Common benchmarks are used to evaluate the alternative approaches.