Three Essays on Systemic Risk

Three Essays on Systemic Risk
Author: Sylvain Benoit
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2014
Genre:
ISBN:

Systemic risk has played a key role in the propagation of the last global financial crisis. A large number ofsystemic risk measures have been developed to quantify the contribution of a financial institution to thesystem-wide risk. However, numerous questions about their abilities to identify Systemically ImportantFinancial Institutions (SIFIs) have been raised since systemic risk has multiple facets, and some of themare difficult to gauge, such as the commonalities across financial institutions.The main goal of this dissertation in finance is thus (i) to propose an empirical solution to identifydomestic SIFIs, (ii) to compare theoretically and empirically different systemic risk measures, and (iii)to measure changes in banks' risk exposures.First, chapter 1 offers an adjustment of three market-based systemic risk measures, designed in a globalframework, to identify domestic SIFIs. Second, chapter 2 introduces a common framework in whichseveral systemic risk measures are expressed and compared. It is theoretically shown that those systemicrisk measures can be expressed as function of traditional risk measures. The empirical application confirmsthese findings and shows that these measures fall short in capturing the multifaceted nature of systemicrisk. Third, chapter 3 proposes the Factor Implied Risk Exposures (FIRE) methodology which breaksdown a change in risk disclosure into a market volatility component and a bank-specific risk exposurecomponent. This chapter empirically illustrates that changes in risk exposures are positively correlatedacross banks, which is consistent with banks exhibiting commonality in trading.

Three Essays on Systemic Risk

Three Essays on Systemic Risk
Author: Benjamin Rodney Woodruff
Publisher:
Total Pages: 192
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

I examine three topics related to systemic risk which not usually considered in mainstream research. I find evidence that coffee price risk might be hedged by Ugandan producers, possibly mitigating the risk of economy-wide devastation. I provide evidence that there is a long history of a relationship between real estate lending and bank failures, which have threatened economic collapse several times in American history. And I show the potential benefits of an options market for temporary shelter for persons fleeing natural disasters, history's most unforgiving threat to individuals and nations. All three papers contribute to the understanding of systemic risk, providing important insights for policymakers and avenues for further research.

Essays in Banking and Finance

Essays in Banking and Finance
Author: Gang Dong
Publisher:
Total Pages: 158
Release: 2012
Genre: Banks and banking
ISBN:

This dissertation includes three essays. The first essay identifies the determinants of bank's risk contribution to systemic risk, and documents that banks with higher non-interest income (noncore activities like investment banking, venture capital and trading activities) have a higher contribution to systemic risk than traditional banking (deposit taking and lending). After decomposing total non-interest income into two components, trading income and investment banking and venture capital income, we find that both components are roughly equally related to systemic risk. These results are robust to endogeneity concerns when we use a difference-in-difference approach with the Lehman bankruptcy proxying for an exogenous shock. We also find that banks with higher trading income one-year prior to the recession earned lower returns during the recession period. No such significant effect was found for investment banking and venture capital income. The second essay analyzes the effect of mortgage securitization on the real economy and housing market. I estimate the dynamic response of housing risk and real GDP to shocks of mortgage securitization and banks' ownership of mortgage-backed security (MBS), and test three hypotheses suggested in the extant literature. Using structural vector autoregression (SVAR) methodology and cross-sectional analysis, I find that securitization reduces housing risk by completing the market. Interestingly, housing risk increases when commercial banks' ownership of MBS increases. This positive relationship is inconsistent with the agency view of securitization but is consistent with the neglected risk view of mortgage securitization (Gennaioli, Shleifer, and Vishny 2011). The causal inference is drawn from a quasi-experimental design using housing data of bordering CBSA regions in neighboring states with and without the passing of anti-predatory lending laws. The third essay identifies the passing of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) as an exogenous shock and uses the event study method to estimate the stock market's reaction in terms of asset price changes in the health care sector. The stock market appears to view the passing of PPACA as good news to the home care and specialty outpatient services but bad news to the medical instrument and health insurance industries. This might suggest that the existing institutional structure of the insurance industry is biased against comprehensive health, and most growth opportunities exist in the home care and specialty outpatient services. Furthermore, the magnitude of the abnormal return is relatively larger for firms with higher profit and R & D investment, but smaller for firms held by healthcare-specialized institutional investors, which is consistent with the literature that price changes are partially due to information revelation efforts by sophisticated institutional investors.

THREE ESSAYS ON THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY TARGET INTEREST RATES ON BANK DISTRESS AND SYSTEMIC RISK

THREE ESSAYS ON THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY TARGET INTEREST RATES ON BANK DISTRESS AND SYSTEMIC RISK
Author: Mustafa Akcay
Publisher:
Total Pages: 223
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

My dissertation topic is on the impact of changes in the monetary policy interest rate target on bank distress and systemic risk in the U.S. banking system. The financial crisis of 2007-2009 had devastating effects on the banking system worldwide. The feeble performance of financial institutions during the crisis heightened the necessity of understanding systemic risk exhibited the critical role of monitoring the banking system, and strongly necessitated quantification of the risks to which banks are exposed, for incorporation in policy formulation. In the aftermath of the crisis, US bank regulators focused on overhauling the then existing regulatory framework in order to provide comprehensive capital buffers against bank losses. In this context, the Basel Committee proposed in 2011, the Basel III framework in order to strengthen the regulatory capital structure as a buffer against bank losses. The reform under Basel III framework aimed at raising the quality and the quantity of regulatory capital base and enhancing the risk coverage of the capital structure. Separately, US bank regulators adopted the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (2010) to implement stress tests on systemically important bank holding companies (SIBs). Concerns about system-wide distress have broadened the debate on banking regulation towards a macro prudential approach. In this context, limiting bank risk and systemic risk has become a prolific research field at the crossroads of banking, macroeconomics, econometrics, and network theory over the last decade (Kuritzkes et al., 2005; Goodhart and Sergoviano, 2008; Geluk et al., 2009; Acharya et al., 2010, 2017; Tarashev et al., 2010; Huang et al., 2012; Browless and Engle, 2012, 2017 and Cummins, 2014). The European Central Bank (ECB) (2010) defines systemic risk as a risk of financial instability "so widespread that it impairs the functioning of a financial system to the point where economic growth and welfare suffer materially." While US bank regulators and policy-makers have moved to strengthen the regulatory framework in the post-crisis period in order to prevent another financial crisis, a growing recent line of research has suggested that there is a significant link between monetary policy and bank distress (Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist, 1999; Borio and Zhu, 2008; Gertler and Kiyotaki, 2010; Delis and Kouretas, 2010; Gertler and Karadi, 2011; Delis et al., 2017). In my research, I examine the link between the monetary policy and bank distress. In the first chapter, I investigate the impact of the federal funds rate (FFR) changes on the banking system distress between 2001 and 2013 within an unrestricted vector auto-regression model. The Fed used FFR as a primary policy tool before the financial crisis of 2007-2009, but focused on quantitative easing (QE) during the crisis and post-crisis periods when the FFR hit the zero bound. I use the Taylor rule rate (TRR, 1993) as an "implied policy rate", instead of the FFR, to account for the impact of QE on the economy. The base model of distress includes three macroeconomic indicators-real GDP growth, inflation, and TRR-and a systemic risk indicator (Expected capital shortfall (ES)). I consider two model extensions; (i) I include a measure of bank lending standards to account for the changes in the systemic risk due to credit tightening, (ii) I replace inflation with house price growth rate to see if the results remain robust. Three main results can be drawn. First, the impulse response functions (IRFs) show that raising the monetary policy rate contributed to insolvency problems for the U.S. banks, with a one percentage point increase in the rate raising the banking systemic stress by 1.6 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively, in the base and extend models. Second, variance decomposition (VDs) analysis shows that up to ten percent of error variation in systemic risk indicator can be attributed to innovations in the policy rate in the extended model. Third, my results supplement the view that policy rate hikes led to housing bubble burst and contributed to the financial crisis of 2007-2009. This is an example for how monetary policy-making gets more complex and must be conducted with utmost caution if there is a bubble in the economy. In the second chapter, I examine the prevalence and asymmetry of the effects on bank distress from positive and negative shocks to the target fed fund rate (FFR) in the period leading to the financial crisis (2001-2008). A panel model with three blocks of control variables is used. The blocks include: positive/negative FFR shocks, macroeconomic drivers, and bank balance sheet indicators. A distress indicator similar to Texas Ratio is used to proxy distress. Shocks to FFR are defined along the lines suggested by Morgan (1993). Three main results are obtained. First, FFR shocks, either positive or negative, raise bank distress over the following year. Second, the magnitudes of the effects from positive and negative shocks are unequal (asymmetric); a 100 bps positive (negative) shock raises the bank distress indicator (scaled from 0 to 1) by 9 bps (3 bps) over the next year. Put differently, after a 100 bps positive (negative) shock, the probability of bankruptcy rises from 10% to 19% (13%). Third, expanding operations into non-banking activities by FHCs does not benefit them in terms of distress due to unanticipated changes in the FFR as FFR shocks (positive or negative) create similar levels of distress for BHCs and FHCs. In the third chapter, I explore the systemic risk contributions of U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs) from 2001 to 2015 by using the expected shortfall approach. Developed by analogy with the component expected shortfall concept, I decompose the aggregate systemic risk, as measured by expected shortfall, into several subgroups of banks by using publicly available balance sheet data to define the probability of bank default. The risk measure, thus, encompasses the entire universe of banks. I find that concentration of assets in a smaller number of larger banks raises systemic risk. The systemic risk contribution of banks designated as SIFIs increased sharply during the financial crisis and reached 74% at the end of 2015. Two-thirds of this risk contribution is attributed to the four largest banks in the U.S.: Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. I also find that diversifying business operations by expanding into nontraditional operations does not reduce the systemic risk contribution of financial holding companies (FHCs). In general, FHCs are individually riskier than BHCs despite their more diversified basket of products; FHCs contribute a disproportionate amount to systemic risk given their size, all else being equal. I believe monetary policy-making in the last decade carries many lessons for policy makers. Particularly, the link between the monetary policy target rate and bank distress and systemic risk is an interesting topic by all accounts due to its implications and challenges (explained in more detail in first and second chapters). The literature studying the relation between bank distress and monetary policy is fairly small but developing fast. The models I investigate in my work are simple in many ways but they may serve as a basis for more sophisticated models.

Three Essays on Sovereign Credit Risk

Three Essays on Sovereign Credit Risk
Author: Tingwei Wang
Publisher:
Total Pages: 152
Release: 2016
Genre:
ISBN:

This thesis studies sovereign credit risk and its impact on banks and industrial firms. The first essay shows that bank credit risk is linked to sovereign credit risk through common exposure to systemic risk instead of implicit bailout or excessive holding of home country bonds. In the second essay, I build a trade-off model of capital structure which predicts negative correlation between optimal leverage of big firms and sovereign credit risk due to implicit bailout. The model prediction is confirmed by empirical evidence from firms in the euro area. The third essay provides a joint pricing model of CDS and bond to disentangle the default and liquidity component in CDS spread and bond yield spread. I find a remarkable liquidity component in the CDS spreads of peripheral euro area countries and conclude that ignoring CDS illiquidity leads to overestimation of default component in bond yield.

Three Essays on Banking Risks and Inflation Dynamics

Three Essays on Banking Risks and Inflation Dynamics
Author: Demet Cimen-Gulsen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 11
Release: 2018
Genre: Banks and banking
ISBN: 9780438718746

In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis of 2008, policymakers and researches has stirred a movement of economic researches on the determinants, impacts, and control of the crisis. There has been limited work on the banks' size and risk relationship and the determinants of systemic risk contribution. This dissertation investigates these two sub-areas to help strengthen future financial sector risk and factors behind the deflation in Europe during 2014. This dissertation contains three chapters. First paper titled "Do Big Banks Take on More Risks? Some Evidence on Whether Bank Size and Risk Relationship Matters". I examine the relationship between the bank size-structure and three major banks risks: liquidity risk, credit risk, and market risk. I use pro-forma based data sample of virtually largest fifty US commercial banks during the period 1994--2013. The results show that institutions with higher risk exposure have a larger size, less capital, and greater reliance on purchased funds. Banks related to significantly reduced bank risks are characterized by a smaller asset size and strong depository funding. Overall, the banking system has not finished the post-crisis consolidation. These results provide new insights into the understanding of bank risks and serve as an underpinning for recent regulatory efforts aimed at strengthening banks (joint) risk management of liquidity, credit, and market risks. In the second paper, titled "Network Topology and Systemic Risk Contribution: An Empirical Evaluation", I ask how the network topology of financial institutions affects their systemic risk contribution. I deploy DCC-GARCH model to construct network topology and SRISK and LRMES to measure systemic risk contributions. I classify financial firms into receivers, drivers, and key players. Moreover, I analyze network impact on systemic risk contribution based on their industry groups: Depositories, Insurance, Broker-Dealers, and Others. In the final paper, titled "Identifying Second Round Effects: Food and Energy Prices and Core Inflation Dynamics" joint with Weicheng Lian, we seek to explore the factors behind low inflation rates during 2014. We consider the role of unprocessed food and energy prices on core inflation using a panel Vector Autoregressive Regression estimated among 29 European economies between 1999 and 2014, we find evidence consistent with second-round effects: (i) unprocessed food and energy price shocks both have weaker and less persistent impact on core inflation in countries with more anchored inflation expectation, (ii) after we shut down changes in inflation expectations, both unprocessed food, and energy price shocks have weaker and less persistent impact on core inflation, and in this case, result (i) disappears i.e., the impacts become almost the same between countries with more anchored and those with less anchored inflation expectations.

Essays on Systemic Risk

Essays on Systemic Risk
Author:
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Systemic Risk: Is the Banking Sector Special? In this paper we empirically investigate the degree of systemic risk in the banking sector versus other industry sectors in the United States and in Germany. We characterize the systemic risk in each sector by the lower tail dependence of stock returns. Our study differs from the existing literature in three aspects. First, we compare the degree of systemic risk in the banking sector with other sectors in the economy. Second, we analyze how the systemic risk depends on the state of the economy. Third, we address the problem of systemic risk in an international context by comparing the US and the German banking system. Our study shows in most cases considered that the systemic risk of the banking sector is significantly larger than in all other sectors. Especially it differs from the systemic risk in the insurance sector, the second strongly regulated financial subsystem. Moreover, the degree of systemic risk is higher under adverse market conditions. Finally, we find that the banking sector in Germany shows a lower systemic risk than the US banking sector. Chapter 3: Intra-Industry Contagion Effects of Earnings Surprises in the Banking Sector In this paper we investigate whether contagion is present in the banking sector by analyzing how banks are affected by negative earnings surprises from their competitors. The banking sector is of crucial importance for the economy and, thus, highly regulated on an individual bank level. However, a high degree of contagion risk should call for a regulation of the financial network rather than solely regulating on an individual level. To be able to make a judgment about the magnitude of possible contagion effects we compare the results of the banking sector with the results of the non-banking industries. We find that earnings surprises cause significant contagion in the banking sector. In contrast, we do not find this effect in the non-banking sector.