Welfare-maximizing Monetary Policy Under Parameter Uncertainty

Welfare-maximizing Monetary Policy Under Parameter Uncertainty
Author: Rochelle Mary Edge
Publisher:
Total Pages: 78
Release: 2007
Genre: Monetary policy
ISBN:

This paper examines welfare-maximizing monetary policy in an estimated micro-founded general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy where the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters. Uncertainty about parameters describing preferences and technology implies not only uncertainty about the dynamics of the economy. It also implies uncertainty about the model's utility-based welfare criterion and about the economy's natural rate measures of interest and output. We analyze the characteristics and performance of alternative monetary policy rules given the estimated uncertainty regarding parameter estimates. We find that the natural rates of interest and output are imprecisely estimated. We then show that, relative to the case of known parameters, optimal policy under parameter uncertainty responds less to natural-rate terms and more to other variables, such as price and wage inflation and measures of tightness or slack that do not depend on natural rates.

Quantifying the Cost Uncertainty of Climate Stabilization Policies

Quantifying the Cost Uncertainty of Climate Stabilization Policies
Author: Travis Read Franck
Publisher:
Total Pages: 63
Release: 2005
Genre:
ISBN:

Climate change researchers are often asked to evaluate potential economic effects of climate stabilization policies. Policy costs are particularly important because policymakers use a cost/benefit framework to analyze policy options. Many different models have been developed to estimate economic costs and to inform cost/benefit decisions. This thesis examines what impact modelers' assumptions have on a model's results. Specifically, MIT's Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model is examined to understand how uncertainty in input parameters affect economic predictions of long-term climate stabilization policies. Eleven different categories of parameters were varied in a Monte Carlo simulation to understand their effect on two different climate stabilization policies. The Monte Carlo simulation results show that the structure of stabilization policy regulations has regional economic welfare effects. Carbon permits allocated by a tax-based emissions path favored energy importers with developed economies (e.g., the US and the EU). Countries with energy-intensive economies (e.g., China) will likely have negative welfare changes because of strict carbon policy constraints. Oil exporters (e.g., the Middle East) will also be negatively impacted because of terms of trade fluxes. These insights have implications for stabilization policy design. The uncertainty surrounding economic projections expose some countries to larger economic risks. Policies could be designed to share risks by implementing different permit allocation methods. Direct payments are another means to compensate countries disproportionately disadvantaged by a stabilization policy.

Contemporary Economic Issues

Contemporary Economic Issues
Author: H. Wolf
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 232
Release: 2016-07-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 134926072X

This volume contains chapters on a range of topics which include economic methodology in macroeconomics, central bank independence, policy signalling, public policy as second best analysis, the determinants of economic growth, a continuum approach to unemployment policy, and pensions. The volume dispels the notion that these are largely unrelated issues and illustrates the merger process which is taking place between hitherto rather separate economic sub-disciplines. They move the focus of attention and challenge received wisdom.