The Time-variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets

The Time-variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets
Author: Alberto Giovannini
Publisher:
Total Pages: 56
Release: 1988
Genre: Business enterprises
ISBN:

Recent empirical work indicates that, in a variety of financial markets, both conditional expectations and conditional variances of returns are time- varying. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether these joint fluctuations of conditional first and second moments are consistent with the Sharpe-Lintner-Mossin capital-asset-pricing model. We test the mean-variance model under several different assumptions about the time-variation of conditional second moments of returns, using weekly data from July 1974 to December 1986, that include returns on a portfolio composed of dollar, Deutsche mark, Sterling, and Swiss franc assets, together with the US stock market. The model is estimated constraining risk premia to depend on the time-varying conditional covariance matrix of the residuals of the expected returns equations. The results indicate that estimated conditional variances cannot explain the observed time-variation of risk premia. Furthermore, the constraints imposed by the static CAPH are always rejected.

The Time Variation of Risk and Return in Foreign Exchange Markets

The Time Variation of Risk and Return in Foreign Exchange Markets
Author: Geert Bekaert
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 1996
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper investigates the statistical properties of high frequency nominal exchange rates and forward premiums in the context of a dynamic two-country general equilibrium model. Primary focus is on the persistence, variability, leptokurtosis and conditional heteroskedasticity of exchange rates and on the behavior of foreign exchange risk premiums. The model combines temporal dependencies in preferences with a transaction cost technology that generates a role for money. Agents in the economy make decisions on a weekly frequency and face shocks which display time-varying uncertainty. Simulations reveal that the model accounts for the statistical properties of exchange rate data much more accurately than previous structural models

Global Stock Markets

Global Stock Markets
Author: Wolfgang Drobetz
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 346
Release: 2013-06-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3663085295

Wolfgang Drobetz provides empirical evidence on the time variation of expected stock returns over the stages of the business cycle.

Financial Markets and the Real Economy

Financial Markets and the Real Economy
Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 117
Release: 2005
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1933019158

Financial Markets and the Real Economy reviews the current academic literature on the macroeconomics of finance.

The Intertemporal Relation between Expected Return and Risk on Currency

The Intertemporal Relation between Expected Return and Risk on Currency
Author: Turan G. Bali
Publisher:
Total Pages: 37
Release: 2012
Genre:
ISBN:

The literature has so far focused on the risk-return tradeoff in equity markets and ignored alternative risky assets. This paper examines the presence and significance of an intertemporal relation between expected return and risk in the foreign exchange market. The paper provides new evidence on the intertemporal capital asset pricing model by using high-frequency intraday data on currency and by presenting significant time-variation in the risk aversion parameter. Five-minute returns on the spot exchange rates of the U.S. dollar vis-a-vis six major currencies (the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound Sterling, Swiss Franc, Australian Dollar, and Canadian Dollar) are used to test the existence and significance of a daily risk-return tradeoff in the FX market based on the GARCH, realized, and range volatility estimators. The results indicate a positive, but statistically weak relation between risk and return on currency.