The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a DSGE Model

The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a DSGE Model
Author: Marina Emiris
Publisher:
Total Pages: 63
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

The paper evaluates the implications of the Smets and Wouters (2004) DSGE model for the US yield curve. Bond prices are modelled in a way that is consistent with the macro model and the resulting risk premium in long term bonds is a function of the macro model parameters exclusively. When the model is estimated under the restriction that the implied average 10-year term premium matches the observed premium, it turns out that risk aversion and habit only need to rise slightly while the increase in the term premium is achieved by a drop in the monetary policy parameter that governs the aggressiveness of the monetary policy rule. A less aggressive policy increases the persistence of the reaction of inflation and the short interest rate to any shock, reinforces the covariance between the marginal rate of substitution of consumption and bond prices, turns positive the contribution of the inflation premium and drives the term premium up. The paper concludes that the presence of nominal rigidities by generating persistent inflation can help in reconciling the macro model with the yield curve data.

The term structure of interest rates in a DSGE model with recursive preferences

The term structure of interest rates in a DSGE model with recursive preferences
Author: Jules H. van Binsbergen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2010
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

We solve a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which the representative household has Epstein and Zin recursive preferences. The parameters governing preferences and technology are estimated by means of maximum likelihood using macroeconomic data and asset prices, with a particular focus on the term structure of interest rates. We estimate a large risk aversion, an elasticity of intertemporal substitution higher than one, and substantial adjustment costs. Furthermore, we identify the tensions within the model by estimating it on subsets of these data. We conclude by pointing out potential extensions that might improve the model's fit.

The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a DSGE Model with Recursive Preferences

The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a DSGE Model with Recursive Preferences
Author: Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
Publisher:
Total Pages: 49
Release: 2010
Genre: Equilibrium (Economics)
ISBN:

We solve a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which the representative household has Epstein and Zin recursive preferences. The parameters governing preferences and technology are estimated by means of maximum likelihood using macroeconomic data and asset prices, with a particular focus on the term structure of interest rates. We estimate a large risk aversion, an elasticity of intertemporal substitution higher than one, and substantial adjustment costs. Furthermore, we identify the tensions within the model by estimating it on subsets of these data. We conclude by pointing out potential extensions that might improve the model's fit.

Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Author: Rajna Gibson
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
Total Pages: 171
Release: 2010
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1601983727

Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates provides a comprehensive review of the continuous-time modeling techniques of the term structure applicable to value and hedge default-free bonds and other interest rate derivatives.

Term Structure and Real-Time Learning

Term Structure and Real-Time Learning
Author: Pablo Aguilar
Publisher:
Total Pages: 55
Release: 2018
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper introduces the term structure of interest rates into a medium-scale DSGE model. This extension results in a multi-period forecasting model that is estimated under both adaptive learning and rational expectations. Term structure information enables us to characterize agents' expectations in real time, which addresses an imperfect information issue mostly neglected in the adaptive learning literature. Relative to the rational expectations version, our estimated DSGE model under adaptive learning largely improves the model fit to the data, which include not just macroeconomic data but also the yield curve and the consumption growth and inflation forecasts reported in the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Moreover, the estimation results show that most endogenous sources of aggregate persistence are dramatically undercut when adaptive learning based on multi-period forecasting is incorporated through the term structure of interest rates.

A Macro-finance Approach to the Term Structure of Interest Rates

A Macro-finance Approach to the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Author: Marcelo Ferman
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2011
Genre:
ISBN:

This thesis contributes to the literature that analyses the term structure of interest rates from a macroeconomic perspective. Chapter 1 studies the transmission of monetary policy shocks to the US macroeconomy and term structure. Based on estimates of a Macro-Affine model, it shows that monetary policy shocks trigger relevant movements in bond premia, which in turn feed back into the macroeconomy. This channel of monetary transmission shows up importantly in the pre-Volcker period, but becomes irrelevant later. This chapter concludes with an analysis of the macroeconomic implications of shocks to expectations about future monetary policy actions. Chapter 2 proposes a regime-switching approach to explain why the U.S. nominal yield curve on average has been steeper since the mid-1980s than during the Great Inflation of the 1970s. It shows that, once the possibility of regime switches in the short-rate process is incorporated into investors' beliefs, the average slope of the yield curve generally will contain a new component called 'level risk'. Level risk estimates were found to be large and negative during the Great Inflation, but became moderate and positive afterwards. These findings are replicated in a Markov-Switching DSGE model, where the monetary policy rule shifts between an active and a passive regime with respect to inflation fluctuations. Chapter 3 develops a DSGE model in which banks use short-term deposits to provide firms with long-term credit. The demand for long-term credit arises because firms borrow in order to finance their capital stock which they only adjust at infrequent intervals. The model shows that maturity transformation in the banking sector in general attenuates the output response to a technological shock. Implications of long-term nominal contracts are also examined in a New Keynesian version of the model. In this case, maturity transformation reduces the real effects of a monetary policy shock.

The Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the United States in Light of the Financial Crisis of 2007–10

The Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the United States in Light of the Financial Crisis of 2007–10
Author: Mr.Carlos I. Medeiros
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2011-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455226041

This paper assesses the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates in the United States in light of the financial crisis in 2007-10. In particular, this paper assesses the dynamics of the term structure of U.S. Treasury security yields in light of economic and financial events and the monetary policy response since the inception of the crisis in mid-2007. To this end, this paper relies on estimates of the term structure using Nelson-Siegel models that make use of unobservable or latent factors and macroeconomic variables. The paper concludes that both the latent factors and macroeconomic variables explain the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates, and the expectations of the impact on macroeconomic variables of changes in financial factors, and vice versa, have changed little with the financial crisis.