The Splendors and Miseries of Martingales

The Splendors and Miseries of Martingales
Author: Laurent Mazliak
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 419
Release: 2022-10-17
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 3031059883

Over the past eighty years, martingales have become central in the mathematics of randomness. They appear in the general theory of stochastic processes, in the algorithmic theory of randomness, and in some branches of mathematical statistics. Yet little has been written about the history of this evolution. This book explores some of the territory that the history of the concept of martingales has transformed. The historian of martingales faces an immense task. We can find traces of martingale thinking at the very beginning of probability theory, because this theory was related to gambling, and the evolution of a gambler’s holdings as a result of following a particular strategy can always be understood as a martingale. More recently, in the second half of the twentieth century, martingales became important in the theory of stochastic processes at the very same time that stochastic processes were becoming increasingly important in probability, statistics and more generally in various applied situations. Moreover, a history of martingales, like a history of any other branch of mathematics, must go far beyond an account of mathematical ideas and techniques. It must explore the context in which the evolution of ideas took place: the broader intellectual milieux of the actors, the networks that already existed or were created by the research, even the social and political conditions that favored or hampered the circulation and adoption of certain ideas. This books presents a stroll through this history, in part a guided tour, in part a random walk. First, historical studies on the period from 1920 to 1950 are presented, when martingales emerged as a distinct mathematical concept. Then insights on the period from 1950 into the 1980s are offered, when the concept showed its value in stochastic processes, mathematical statistics, algorithmic randomness and various applications.

Mathematical Communities in the Reconstruction After the Great War 1918–1928

Mathematical Communities in the Reconstruction After the Great War 1918–1928
Author: Laurent Mazliak
Publisher: Springer Nature
Total Pages: 373
Release: 2021-03-27
Genre: Science
ISBN: 3030616835

This book is a consequence of the international meeting organized in Marseilles in November 2018 devoted to the aftermath of the Great War for mathematical communities. It features selected original research presented at the meeting offering a new perspective on a period, the 1920s, not extensively considered by historiography. After 1918, new countries were created, and borders of several others were modified. Territories were annexed while some countries lost entire regions. These territorial changes bear witness to the massive and varied upheavals with which European societies were confronted in the aftermath of the Great War. The reconfiguration of political Europe was accompanied by new alliances and a redistribution of trade – commercial, intellectual, artistic, military, and so on – which largely shaped international life during the interwar period. These changes also had an enormous impact on scientific life, not only in practice, but also in its organization and communication strategies. The mathematical sciences, which from the late 19th century to the 1920s experienced a deep disciplinary evolution, were thus facing a double movement, internal and external, which led to a sustainable restructuring of research and teaching. Concomitantly, various areas such as topology, functional analysis, abstract algebra, logic or probability, among others, experienced exceptional development. This was accompanied by an explosion of new international or national associations of mathematicians with for instance the founding, in 1918, of the International Mathematical Union and the controversial creation of the International Research Council. Therefore, the central idea for the articulation of the various chapters of the book is to present case studies illustrating how in the aftermath of the war, many mathematicians had to organize their personal trajectories taking into account the evolution of the political, social and scientific environment which had taken place at the end of the conflict.

Applied Time Series Analysis

Applied Time Series Analysis
Author: Terence C. Mills
Publisher: Academic Press
Total Pages: 355
Release: 2019-01-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0128131187

Written for those who need an introduction, Applied Time Series Analysis reviews applications of the popular econometric analysis technique across disciplines. Carefully balancing accessibility with rigor, it spans economics, finance, economic history, climatology, meteorology, and public health. Terence Mills provides a practical, step-by-step approach that emphasizes core theories and results without becoming bogged down by excessive technical details. Including univariate and multivariate techniques, Applied Time Series Analysis provides data sets and program files that support a broad range of multidisciplinary applications, distinguishing this book from others. - Focuses on practical application of time series analysis, using step-by-step techniques and without excessive technical detail - Supported by copious disciplinary examples, helping readers quickly adapt time series analysis to their area of study - Covers both univariate and multivariate techniques in one volume - Provides expert tips on, and helps mitigate common pitfalls of, powerful statistical software including EVIEWS and R - Written in jargon-free and clear English from a master educator with 30 years+ experience explaining time series to novices - Accompanied by a microsite with disciplinary data sets and files explaining how to build the calculations used in examples

Casanova's Lottery

Casanova's Lottery
Author: Stephen M. Stigler
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
Total Pages: 252
Release: 2022-10-20
Genre: History
ISBN: 0226820785

The fascinating story of an important lottery that flourished in France from 1757 to 1836 and its role in transforming our understanding of the nature of risk. In the 1750s, at the urging of famed adventurer Giacomo Casanova, the French state began to embrace risk in adopting a new Loterie. The prize amounts paid varied, depending on the number of tickets bought and the amount of the bet, as determined by each individual bettor. The state could lose money on any individual Loterie drawing while being statistically guaranteed to come out on top in the long run. In adopting this framework, the French state took on risk in a way no other has, before or after. At each drawing the state was at risk of losing a large amount; what is more, that risk was precisely calculable, generally well understood, and yet taken on by the state with little more than a mathematical theory to protect it. Stephen M. Stigler follows the Loterie from its curious inception through its hiatus during the French Revolution, its renewal and expansion in 1797, and finally to its suppression in 1836, examining throughout the wider question of how members of the public came to trust in new financial technologies and believe in their value. Drawing from an extensive collection of rare ephemera, Stigler pieces together the Loterie’s remarkable inner workings, as well as its implications for the nature of risk and the role of lotteries in social life over the period 1700–1950. Both a fun read and fodder for many fields, Casanova's Lottery shines new light on the conscious introduction of risk into the management of a nation-state and the rationality of playing unfair games.

Introduction to Stochastic Calculus

Introduction to Stochastic Calculus
Author: Rajeeva L. Karandikar
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 446
Release: 2018-06-01
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 9811083185

This book sheds new light on stochastic calculus, the branch of mathematics that is most widely applied in financial engineering and mathematical finance. The first book to introduce pathwise formulae for the stochastic integral, it provides a simple but rigorous treatment of the subject, including a range of advanced topics. The book discusses in-depth topics such as quadratic variation, Ito formula, and Emery topology. The authors briefly addresses continuous semi-martingales to obtain growth estimates and study solution of a stochastic differential equation (SDE) by using the technique of random time change. Later, by using Metivier–Pellaumail inequality, the solutions to SDEs driven by general semi-martingales are discussed. The connection of the theory with mathematical finance is briefly discussed and the book has extensive treatment on the representation of martingales as stochastic integrals and a second fundamental theorem of asset pricing. Intended for undergraduate- and beginning graduate-level students in the engineering and mathematics disciplines, the book is also an excellent reference resource for applied mathematicians and statisticians looking for a review of the topic.

Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance

Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance
Author: Glenn Shafer
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Total Pages: 483
Release: 2019-03-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1118547934

Game-theoretic probability and finance come of age Glenn Shafer and Vladimir Vovk’s Probability and Finance, published in 2001, showed that perfect-information games can be used to define mathematical probability. Based on fifteen years of further research, Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance presents a mature view of the foundational role game theory can play. Its account of probability theory opens the way to new methods of prediction and testing and makes many statistical methods more transparent and widely usable. Its contributions to finance theory include purely game-theoretic accounts of Ito’s stochastic calculus, the capital asset pricing model, the equity premium, and portfolio theory. Game-Theoretic Foundations for Probability and Finance is a book of research. It is also a teaching resource. Each chapter is supplemented with carefully designed exercises and notes relating the new theory to its historical context. Praise from early readers “Ever since Kolmogorov's Grundbegriffe, the standard mathematical treatment of probability theory has been measure-theoretic. In this ground-breaking work, Shafer and Vovk give a game-theoretic foundation instead. While being just as rigorous, the game-theoretic approach allows for vast and useful generalizations of classical measure-theoretic results, while also giving rise to new, radical ideas for prediction, statistics and mathematical finance without stochastic assumptions. The authors set out their theory in great detail, resulting in what is definitely one of the most important books on the foundations of probability to have appeared in the last few decades.” – Peter Grünwald, CWI and University of Leiden “Shafer and Vovk have thoroughly re-written their 2001 book on the game-theoretic foundations for probability and for finance. They have included an account of the tremendous growth that has occurred since, in the game-theoretic and pathwise approaches to stochastic analysis and in their applications to continuous-time finance. This new book will undoubtedly spur a better understanding of the foundations of these very important fields, and we should all be grateful to its authors.” – Ioannis Karatzas, Columbia University

Stochastic Calculus and Financial Applications

Stochastic Calculus and Financial Applications
Author: J. Michael Steele
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 303
Release: 2012-12-06
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 1468493051

Stochastic calculus has important applications to mathematical finance. This book will appeal to practitioners and students who want an elementary introduction to these areas. From the reviews: "As the preface says, ‘This is a text with an attitude, and it is designed to reflect, wherever possible and appropriate, a prejudice for the concrete over the abstract’. This is also reflected in the style of writing which is unusually lively for a mathematics book." --ZENTRALBLATT MATH

Statistics of Random Processes II

Statistics of Random Processes II
Author: Robert Shevilevich Lipt︠s︡er
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 428
Release: 2001
Genre: Mathematics
ISBN: 9783540639282

"Written by two renowned experts in the field, the books under review contain a thorough and insightful treatment of the fundamental underpinnings of various aspects of stochastic processes as well as a wide range of applications. Providing clear exposition, deep mathematical results, and superb technical representation, they are masterpieces of the subject of stochastic analysis and nonlinear filtering....These books...will become classics." --SIAM REVIEW

Measure Theory and Probability Theory

Measure Theory and Probability Theory
Author: Krishna B. Athreya
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 625
Release: 2006-07-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 038732903X

This is a graduate level textbook on measure theory and probability theory. The book can be used as a text for a two semester sequence of courses in measure theory and probability theory, with an option to include supplemental material on stochastic processes and special topics. It is intended primarily for first year Ph.D. students in mathematics and statistics although mathematically advanced students from engineering and economics would also find the book useful. Prerequisites are kept to the minimal level of an understanding of basic real analysis concepts such as limits, continuity, differentiability, Riemann integration, and convergence of sequences and series. A review of this material is included in the appendix. The book starts with an informal introduction that provides some heuristics into the abstract concepts of measure and integration theory, which are then rigorously developed. The first part of the book can be used for a standard real analysis course for both mathematics and statistics Ph.D. students as it provides full coverage of topics such as the construction of Lebesgue-Stieltjes measures on real line and Euclidean spaces, the basic convergence theorems, L^p spaces, signed measures, Radon-Nikodym theorem, Lebesgue's decomposition theorem and the fundamental theorem of Lebesgue integration on R, product spaces and product measures, and Fubini-Tonelli theorems. It also provides an elementary introduction to Banach and Hilbert spaces, convolutions, Fourier series and Fourier and Plancherel transforms. Thus part I would be particularly useful for students in a typical Statistics Ph.D. program if a separate course on real analysis is not a standard requirement. Part II (chapters 6-13) provides full coverage of standard graduate level probability theory. It starts with Kolmogorov's probability model and Kolmogorov's existence theorem. It then treats thoroughly the laws of large numbers including renewal theory and ergodic theorems with applications and then weak convergence of probability distributions, characteristic functions, the Levy-Cramer continuity theorem and the central limit theorem as well as stable laws. It ends with conditional expectations and conditional probability, and an introduction to the theory of discrete time martingales. Part III (chapters 14-18) provides a modest coverage of discrete time Markov chains with countable and general state spaces, MCMC, continuous time discrete space jump Markov processes, Brownian motion, mixing sequences, bootstrap methods, and branching processes. It could be used for a topics/seminar course or as an introduction to stochastic processes. Krishna B. Athreya is a professor at the departments of mathematics and statistics and a Distinguished Professor in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences at the Iowa State University. He has been a faculty member at University of Wisconsin, Madison; Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore; Cornell University; and has held visiting appointments in Scandinavia and Australia. He is a fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics USA; a fellow of the Indian Academy of Sciences, Bangalore; an elected member of the International Statistical Institute; and serves on the editorial board of several journals in probability and statistics. Soumendra N. Lahiri is a professor at the department of statistics at the Iowa State University. He is a fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, a fellow of the American Statistical Association, and an elected member of the International Statistical Institute.