The Science Of Election Campaigning
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Author | : Robert S. Erikson |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 221 |
Release | : 2012-08-24 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 0226922162 |
In presidential elections, do voters cast their ballots for the candidates whose platform and positions best match their own? Or is the race for president of the United States come down largely to who runs the most effective campaign? It’s a question those who study elections have been considering for years with no clear resolution. In The Timeline of Presidential Elections, Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien reveal for the first time how both factors come into play. Erikson and Wlezien have amassed data from close to two thousand national polls covering every presidential election from 1952 to 2008, allowing them to see how outcomes take shape over the course of an election year. Polls from the beginning of the year, they show, have virtually no predictive power. By mid-April, when the candidates have been identified and matched in pollsters’ trial heats, preferences have come into focus—and predicted the winner in eleven of the fifteen elections. But a similar process of forming favorites takes place in the last six months, during which voters’ intentions change only gradually, with particular events—including presidential debates—rarely resulting in dramatic change. Ultimately, Erikson and Wlezien show that it is through campaigns that voters are made aware of—or not made aware of—fundamental factors like candidates’ policy positions that determine which ticket will get their votes. In other words, fundamentals matter, but only because of campaigns. Timely and compelling, this book will force us to rethink our assumptions about presidential elections.
Author | : Michael D. Cohen |
Publisher | : Rowman & Littlefield |
Total Pages | : 205 |
Release | : 2021-06-15 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 1538153815 |
Modern Political Campaigns brings together academic, practical, and interviews to help understand how professionalism, technology, and speed have revolutionized elections, creating more voter-centric races for public office. Dr. Michael D. Cohen, a 20+ year veteran of working on, teaching, and writing about political campaigns take readers through how campaigns are organized, state-of-the-art tools of the trade, and how some of the most interesting people in politics got their big breaks. The book takes readers through clear-eyed chapters on parties and elections, campaign planning and management, fundraising, independent groups, vulnerability and opposition research, data and analytics, focus groups and polling, earned, paid and social media, and field operations. Finally, the book revisits the Permanent Campaign in terms of modern approaches to winning elections raising questions about today’s uniform preference for turnout over persuasion and what that means for our American democracy. Modern Political Campaigns will appeal to students and political activists interested in working in political campaigns. It is also a great read for anyone who wants to better understand the nuts and bolts of campaigns in practical terms from professionals, and the opportunities they provide all of us to be more engaged citizens and hold our leaders more accountable each Election Day.
Author | : Bernard R. Berelson |
Publisher | : University of Chicago Press |
Total Pages | : 415 |
Release | : 1986-06-15 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 0226043509 |
Voting is an examination of the factors that make people vote the way they do. Based on the famous Elmira Study, carried out by a team of skilled social scientists during the 1948 presidential campaign, it shows how voting is affected by social class, religious background, family loyalties, on-the-job relationships, local pressure groups, mass communication media, and other factors. Still highly relevant, Voting is one of the most frequently cited books in the field of voting behavior.
Author | : Sasha Issenberg |
Publisher | : Crown |
Total Pages | : 402 |
Release | : 2013-09-17 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 0307954803 |
UPDATED FOR THE 2016 ELECTION The book Politico calls “Moneyball for politics” shows how cutting-edge social science and analytics are reshaping the modern political campaign. Renegade thinkers are crashing the gates of a venerable American institution, shoving aside its so-called wise men and replacing them with a radical new data-driven order. We’ve seen it in sports, and now in The Victory Lab, journalist Sasha Issenberg tells the hidden story of the analytical revolution upending the way political campaigns are run in the 21st century. The Victory Lab follows the academics and maverick operatives rocking the war room and re-engineering a high-stakes industry previously run on little more than gut instinct and outdated assumptions. Armed with research from behavioural psychology and randomized experiments that treat voters as unwitting guinea pigs, the smartest campaigns now believe they know who you will vote for even before you do. Issenberg tracks these fascinating techniques—which include cutting edge persuasion experiments, innovative ways to mobilize voters, heavily researched electioneering methods—and shows how our most important figures, such as Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, are putting them to use with surprising skill and alacrity. Provocative, clear-eyed and energetically reported, The Victory Lab offers iconoclastic insights into political marketing, human decision-making, and the increasing power of analytics.
Author | : Shaun Bowler |
Publisher | : Springer |
Total Pages | : 254 |
Release | : 2016-07-27 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 1349224111 |
Despite the central importance of elections to representative democracy, there is no systematic study available of how exactly the parties wage their election campaigns. Examining recent elections in nine countries across three continents, there case studies, all following a common framework, are written by national experts and are based on detailed interviewing and research of the parties. The book includes a lengthy introduction; a comparative study on campaign 'effects'; and a detailed conclusion.
Author | : Elizabeth McKenna |
Publisher | : Oxford University Press |
Total Pages | : 269 |
Release | : 2014 |
Genre | : Biography & Autobiography |
ISBN | : 0199394598 |
Much has been written about the historic nature of the Obama campaign. The multi-year, multi-billion dollar operation elected the nation's first black president, raised and spent more money than any other election effort in history, and built the most sophisticated voter targeting technology ever before used on a national campaign. What is missing from most accounts of the campaign is an understanding of how Obama for America recruited, motivated, developed, and managed its formidable army of 2.2 million volunteers. Unlike previous field campaigns that drew their power from staff, consultants, and paid canvassers, the Obama campaign's capacity came from unpaid local citizens who took responsibility for organizing their own neighborhoods months--and even years--in advance of election day. In so doing, Groundbreakers argues, the campaign engaged citizens in the work of practicing democracy. How did they organize so many volunteers to produce so much valuable work for the campaign? This book describes how. Elizabeth McKenna and Hahrie Han argue that the legacy of Obama for America extends beyond big data and micro-targeting; it also reinvigorated and expanded traditional models of field campaigning. Groundbreakers makes the case that the Obama campaign altered traditional ground games by adopting the principles and practices of community organizing. Drawing on in-depth interviews with OFA field staff and volunteers, this book also argues that a key achievement of the OFA's field organizing was its transformative effect on those who were a part of it. Obama the candidate might have inspired volunteers to join the campaign, but it was the fulfilling relationships that volunteers had with other people--and their deep belief that their work mattered for the work of democracy--that kept them active. Groundbreakers documents how the Obama campaign has inspired a new way of running field campaigns, with lessons for national and international political and civic movements.
Author | : Richard R. Lau |
Publisher | : Cambridge University Press |
Total Pages | : 15 |
Release | : 2006-06-26 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 1139456865 |
This book attempts to redirect the field of voting behavior research by proposing a paradigm-shifting framework for studying voter decision making. An innovative experimental methodology is presented for getting 'inside the heads' of citizens as they confront the overwhelming rush of information from modern presidential election campaigns. Four broad theoretically-defined types of decision strategies that voters employ to help decide which candidate to support are described and operationally-defined. Individual and campaign-related factors that lead voters to adopt one or another of these strategies are examined. Most importantly, this research proposes a new normative focus for the scientific study of voting behavior: we should care about not just which candidate received the most votes, but also how many citizens voted correctly - that is, in accordance with their own fully-informed preferences.
Author | : Rasmus Kleis Nielsen |
Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
Total Pages | : 250 |
Release | : 2012-02-05 |
Genre | : Political Science |
ISBN | : 1400840449 |
Political campaigns today are won or lost in the so-called ground war--the strategic deployment of teams of staffers, volunteers, and paid part-timers who work the phones and canvass block by block, house by house, voter by voter. Ground Wars provides an in-depth ethnographic portrait of two such campaigns, New Jersey Democrat Linda Stender's and that of Democratic Congressman Jim Himes of Connecticut, who both ran for Congress in 2008. Rasmus Kleis Nielsen examines how American political operatives use "personalized political communication" to engage with the electorate, and weighs the implications of ground war tactics for how we understand political campaigns and what it means to participate in them. He shows how ground wars are waged using resources well beyond those of a given candidate and their staff. These include allied interest groups and civic associations, party-provided technical infrastructures that utilize large databases with detailed individual-level information for targeting voters, and armies of dedicated volunteers and paid part-timers. Nielsen challenges the notion that political communication in America must be tightly scripted, controlled, and conducted by a select coterie of professionals. Yet he also quashes the romantic idea that canvassing is a purer form of grassroots politics. In today's political ground wars, Nielsen demonstrates, even the most ordinary-seeming volunteer knocking at your door is backed up by high-tech targeting technologies and party expertise. Ground Wars reveals how personalized political communication is profoundly influencing electoral outcomes and transforming American democracy.
Author | : Lynn Vavreck |
Publisher | : Princeton University Press |
Total Pages | : 236 |
Release | : 2009-07-26 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 9780691139630 |
Demonstrating how candidates and their campaigns affect the economic vote, this book provides a different way of understanding past elections - and predicting future ones. It offers a theory of campaigns that explains why electoral victory requires more than simply being the candidate favored by prevailing economic conditions.
Author | : Jens Koed Madsen |
Publisher | : Springer Nature |
Total Pages | : 401 |
Release | : 2019-09-26 |
Genre | : Psychology |
ISBN | : 3030221458 |
This book examines the psychology behind micro-targeted tactics used in election campaigning and the advent of increasingly sophisticated dynamic Agent-Based Models (ABMs). It discusses individual profiling, how data and modelling are deployed to enhance the effectiveness of persuasion and mobilization efforts in campaigns, and the potential limitations of these approaches. Madsen particularly explores how psychological insight and personal data are used to generate individualised models of voters and how these in turn are applied to optimise persuasion strategies tailored to a specific person. Finally, the book considers the broader democratic dilemmas raised by the introduction of these tactics into politics and the critical civic importance of understanding how these campaigns function.This timely work offers fresh insights for students and scholars of political psychology, philosophy, political marketing, media, and communications.