Stock Returns and Inflation Redux: An Explanation from Monetary Policy in Advanced and Emerging Markets

Stock Returns and Inflation Redux: An Explanation from Monetary Policy in Advanced and Emerging Markets
Author: Mr. Zhongxia Zhang
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 59
Release: 2021-08-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513586750

Classical theories of monetary economics predict that real stock returns are negatively correlated with inflation when monetary policy is countercyclical. Previous empirical studies mostly focus on a small group of developed countries or a few countries with hyperinflation. In this paper, I examine the stock return-inflation relation under different monetary policy regimes and conditions using an expanded dataset of 71 economies. Empirical evidence suggests that the stock return-inflation relation is partially driven by monetary policy. If a country’s monetary authority conducts a more countercyclical monetary policy, the stock return-inflation relation becomes more negative. In addition, the results differ by monetary policy framework. In exchange rate anchor countries, stock markets do not respond to monetary policy cyclicality. In inflation targeting countries, stock markets react more strongly to inflation. A key contribution of this paper is to classify inflation targeters by their behaviors, and illustrate that behavior matters in shaping market perceptions: markets react to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality when central banks are able to control inflation within their target bands. In this case markets are sensitive to inflation dynamics when inflation is above the announced target bands. Finally, when monetary policy is constrained by the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB), a structural break is introduced and real stock returns no longer respond to inflation and monetary policy cyclicality.

IMPACT OF INFLATION ON EQUITY STOCK RETURNS - AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF SELECT INDIAN BLUE CHIP COMPANIES

IMPACT OF INFLATION ON EQUITY STOCK RETURNS - AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF SELECT INDIAN BLUE CHIP COMPANIES
Author: Evuru Poleraiah
Publisher: Epoleraiah Books
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022-11-18
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781805459552

Inflation is a state of economic condition in which there will be an increase in the general level of prices for goods and services. This book is about a study that attempts to give in-depth understanding of all aspects of inflation such as measurement of inflation, various prevailing hypothesis, relation between inflation & stock markets, causes and effects of inflation economics. It details causes, reasons & lessons from inflation and deals about the cost of inflation. The topics of CPI, other causes of inflation, fiscal deficits, effects of inflation and various types of inflation are described. Literature review is presented. Following aspects of study are made available. (1) Evaluation of the stock price movements and performance of BSE 30 stocks, (2) Examining the relationship between Inflation and stock returns of sample stocks, (3) Scrutinizing the relation between inflation and sample industries, (4) Understanding the impact of inflation on individual company performance and (5) Investigating causes for inflation and effect on stocks Research methodology is outlined and conceptual and statistical tools applied for analysis are detailed. Data Analysis of Stock Price Performance and Impact of Inflation on Industries are covered. The book covers the study aimed to understand and measure the impact of inflation on individual stock returns and industries. Based on the prior research it is assumed that inflation have negative impact on stock returns and stock markets. Earlier studies reported mixed results. Very few studies reported that inflation will have negative impact on stock returns. At the same time there are studies which argue that inflation will have positive impact on stock returns. On the other hand there are studies which do not find any statistically significant association between inflation and stock returns.

Relationship Between Inflation and Stock Returns - Evidence from BRICS Markets Using Panel Co Integration Test

Relationship Between Inflation and Stock Returns - Evidence from BRICS Markets Using Panel Co Integration Test
Author: Vanita Tripathi
Publisher:
Total Pages: 12
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

Stocks are generally considered to be a good hedge against inflation because of their tendency to move together. This paper examines long term relationship between inflation and stock returns in BRICS markets using panel data for the period from March 2000 to September 2013. Correlation results reveal a significant negative relationship between stock index and inflation rate for Russia and a significantly positive relationship for India & China. ADF, PP and KPSS unit root tests indicate non-stationary characteristic of the data. Further we find no long term co-integrating relationship between stock index values and inflation rates using Pedroni panel co integration test. These findings have important implications for policy makers, regulators and investment community at large. There may seem to be short term contemporaneous relationship between inflation and equity returns but in the long run they do not seem to be significantly integrated. Changes in inflation may bring some short run movement in stock return but certainly equity does not seem to be a good hedge against inflation in long run at least in emerging BRICS markets.

An Introduction to Wavelets and Other Filtering Methods in Finance and Economics

An Introduction to Wavelets and Other Filtering Methods in Finance and Economics
Author: Ramazan Gençay
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 383
Release: 2001-10-12
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0080509223

An Introduction to Wavelets and Other Filtering Methods in Finance and Economics presents a unified view of filtering techniques with a special focus on wavelet analysis in finance and economics. It emphasizes the methods and explanations of the theory that underlies them. It also concentrates on exactly what wavelet analysis (and filtering methods in general) can reveal about a time series. It offers testing issues which can be performed with wavelets in conjunction with the multi-resolution analysis. The descriptive focus of the book avoids proofs and provides easy access to a wide spectrum of parametric and nonparametric filtering methods. Examples and empirical applications will show readers the capabilities, advantages, and disadvantages of each method. The first book to present a unified view of filtering techniques Concentrates on exactly what wavelets analysis and filtering methods in general can reveal about a time series Provides easy access to a wide spectrum of parametric and non-parametric filtering methods