The Macroeconomics of Scaling-up Aid

The Macroeconomics of Scaling-up Aid
Author: International Working Group of Sovereign Wealth Funds
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2008-09-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498334113

In September 2007, the UN Secretary General launched the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) Africa Steering and Working Groups. The Steering Group brings together the leaders of multilateral institutions to identify practical steps needed for Africa to achieve the MDGs. The Managing Director of the IMF is a member of the Steering Group. The Working Group supports the Steering Group and is comprised of thematic groups in education, agriculture, health, infrastructure and trade facilitation, statistics, aid predictability, and MDG operationalization at the country level. The following three notes assess the macroeconomic implications of the spending of scaled-up aid to Benin, Niger, and Togo in line with that promised by the G-8 at Gleneagles, Scotland in 2005.

The Macroeconomics of Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios

The Macroeconomics of Medium-Term Aid Scaling-Up Scenarios
Author: Jan Gottschalk
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 47
Release: 2010-07-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 145520143X

We develop a model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of a scaling-up of aid and assess the implications of different policy responses. The model features key structural characteristics of low-income countries, including varying degrees of public investment efficiency and a learning-by-doing (LBD) externality that captures Dutch disease effects. On the policy front, it distinguishes between spending the aid, which is controlled by the fiscal authority, and absorbing the aid - financing a higher current account deficit - which is influenced by the central bank's reserve accumulation policies. We calibrate the model to Uganda and run several experiments. We find that a policy mix that results in full spending and absorption of aid can generate temporary demand and real exchange rate appreciation pressures, but also have a positive effect on real GDP in the medium term, through higher public capital. Full spending with partial absorption, on the other hand, may stem appreciation pressures but can also induce adverse medium-term real GDP effects, through private sector crowding out. When aid is very inefficiently invested and there are strong LBD externalities, aid can be harmful, and partial absorption policies may be justified. But in this case, a welfare improving solution is to defer spending or - even better if possible - raise its efficiency.

The Macroeconomics of Scaling Up Aid

The Macroeconomics of Scaling Up Aid
Author: Mr.Andrew Berg
Publisher: IMF
Total Pages: 120
Release: 2007-03-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

This study analyzes key issues associated with large increases in aid, including absorptive capacity, Dutch disease, and inflation. The authors develop a framework that emphasizes the different roles of monetary and fiscal policy and apply it to the recent experience of five countries: Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda. These countries have often found it difficult to coordinate monetary and fiscal policy in the face of conflicting objectives, notably to spend the aid money on domestic goods and to avoid excessive exchange rate appreciation.

Macroeconomic Challenges of Scaling Up Aid to Africa

Macroeconomic Challenges of Scaling Up Aid to Africa
Author: Yongzheng Yang
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 84
Release: 2006-03-20
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9781589065055

Over the next decade, African countries are expected to be the largest beneficiaries of increased donor aid, which is intended to improve their prospects for achieving the Millennium Development Goals. This handbook will help these countries assess the macroeconomic implications of increased aid and respond to the associated policy challenges. The handbook is directed at policymakers, practicing economists in African countries, and the staffs of international financial institutions and donor agencies who participate in preparing medium-term strategies for African countries, including in the context of poverty reduction strategy papers. It provides five main guidelines for developing scaling-up scenarios to help countries identify important policy issues involved in using higher aid flows effectively: to absorb as much aid as possible, to boost growth in the short to medium term, to promote good governance and reduce corruption, to prepare an exit strategy should aid levels decrease, and to regularly reassess the policy mix.

The Macroeconomic Management of Foreign Aid

The Macroeconomic Management of Foreign Aid
Author: Mr.Peter Isard
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 292
Release: 2006-04-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN:

Since the adoption of the Milennium Development Goals (MDGs) in 2000, the challenge of reducing poverty around the world has been more prominent on the agenda of the international community. Relatively slow progress toward meeting the MDGs by the 2015 target date has added to the urgency of this effort. Two influential reports - The United Nations Millennium Project Report (the "Sachs Report") and the Commission for Africa Report (the "Blair Report") envisage substantial increases in aid flows to poor countries, especially to countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The International community sees increases in aid, along with improvements in recipient policies and freer global trade, as necessary for global prosperity and poverty reduction.

The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment

The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment
Author: Mr.Abdul Abiad
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2015-05-04
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484361555

This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.

The Macroeconomics of Managing Increased Aid Inflows - Experiences of Low-Income Countries and Policy Implications

The Macroeconomics of Managing Increased Aid Inflows - Experiences of Low-Income Countries and Policy Implications
Author: International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 67
Release: 2005-08-08
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1498331254

Investigates the macroeconomic challenges for low-income countries created by a surge in aid inflows. It develops an analytical framework for examining possible policy responses to increased aid, and then applies this framework to the experience of five relatively well-governed countries that experienced a recent surge in aid inflows: Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda. Each country’s policies were supported by a PRGF arrangement during most of the period under review.

The Macroeconomics of HIV/AIDS

The Macroeconomics of HIV/AIDS
Author: Mr.Markus Haacker
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 368
Release: 2004-11-19
Genre: Health & Fitness
ISBN: 9781589063600

This paper analyzes the macroeconomics of HIV/AIDS. The paper highlights that the mortality and morbidity associated with AIDS make it unlike most other types of sickness and disease. The paper describes the most common approaches used in accounting for growth in the context of an HIV/AIDS epidemic. The impact of HIV/AIDS on education and the accumulation of human capital is discussed. The paper also discusses the impact of HIV/AIDS on the public sector, and elaborates certain demographic events specific to the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

Debt Sustainability, Public Investment, and Natural Resources in Developing Countries

Debt Sustainability, Public Investment, and Natural Resources in Developing Countries
Author: Mr.Giovanni Melina
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 77
Release: 2014-04-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475521073

This paper presents the DIGNAR (Debt, Investment, Growth, and Natural Resources) model, which can be used to analyze the debt sustainability and macroeconomic effects of public investment plans in resource-abundant developing countries. DIGNAR is a dynamic, stochastic model of a small open economy. It has two types of households, including poor households with no access to financial markets, and features traded and nontraded sectors as well as a natural resource sector. Public capital enters production technologies, while public investment is subject to inefficiencies and absorptive capacity constraints. The government has access to different types of debt (concessional, domestic and external commercial) and a resource fund, which can be used to finance public investment plans. The resource fund can also serve as a buffer to absorb fiscal balances for given projections of resource revenues and public investment plans. When the fund is drawn down to its minimal value, a combination of external and domestic borrowing can be used to cover the fiscal gap in the short to medium run. Fiscal adjustments through tax rates and government non-capital expenditures—which may be constrained by ceilings and floors, respectively—are then triggered to maintain debt sustainability. The paper illustrates how the model can be particularly useful to assess debt sustainability in countries that borrow against future resource revenues to scale up public investment.

Economic Alternatives for Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction

Economic Alternatives for Growth, Employment and Poverty Reduction
Author: T. McKinley
Publisher: Springer
Total Pages: 311
Release: 2009-09-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0230250637

This book is a collection of working papers, policy briefs and training modules, published by the International Poverty Centre in Brazil, which provides a comprehensives set of recommendations for alternative economic policies that can generate growth, employment and poverty reduction in developing countries.