The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle

The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle
Author: Mr.Troy Matheson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 12
Release: 2013-05-22
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 148431106X

Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation reasonably well since the 1960s. Using a non-linear Kalman filter that allows for time-varying parameters, we find that three factors have contributed to the observed stability of inflation: inflation expectations have become better anchored and to a lower level; the slope of the Phillips curve has flattened; and the importance of import-price inflation has increased.

Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2009-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135179778

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models

Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models
Author: Edward P. Herbst
Publisher: Princeton University Press
Total Pages: 295
Release: 2015-12-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0691161089

Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as well as forecasting and policy analysis at central banks. This book introduces readers to state-of-the-art computational techniques used in the Bayesian analysis of DSGE models. The book covers Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for linearized DSGE models, novel sequential Monte Carlo methods that can be used for parameter inference, and the estimation of nonlinear DSGE models based on particle filter approximations of the likelihood function. The theoretical foundations of the algorithms are discussed in depth, and detailed empirical applications and numerical illustrations are provided. The book also gives invaluable advice on how to tailor these algorithms to specific applications and assess the accuracy and reliability of the computations. Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models is essential reading for graduate students, academic researchers, and practitioners at policy institutions.

European Inflation Dynamics

European Inflation Dynamics
Author: Jordi Galí
Publisher:
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2001
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

We provide evidence on the fit of the New Phillips Curve (NPQ for the Euro area over the period 1970-1998, and use it as a tool to compare the characteristics of European inflation dynamics with those observed in the U.S. We also analyze the factors underlying inflation inertia by examining the cyclical behavior of marginal costs, as well as that of its two main components, namely, labor productivity and real wages. Some of the findings can be summarized as follows: (a) the NPC fits Euro area data very well, possibly better than U.S. data, (b) the degree of price stickiness implied by the estimates is substantial, but in line with survey evidence and U.S. estimates, (c) inflation dynamics in the Euro area appear to have a stronger forward- looking component (i.e., less inertia) than in the U.S., (d) labor market frictions, as manifested in the behavior of the wage markup, appear to have played a key role in shaping the behavior of marginal costs and, consequently, inflation in Europe.

Hysteresis and Business Cycles

Hysteresis and Business Cycles
Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 50
Release: 2020-05-29
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1513536990

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

New Tools of Economic Dynamics

New Tools of Economic Dynamics
Author: Jacek Leskow
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
Total Pages: 397
Release: 2006-05-06
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 3540284443

New Tools of Economic Dynamics gives an introduction and overview of recently developed methods and tools, most of them developed outside economics, to deal with the qualitative analysis of economic dynamics. It reports the results of a three-year research project by a European and Latin American network on the intersection of economics with mathematical, statistical, and computational methods and techniques. Focusing upon the evolution and manifold structure of complex dynamic phenomena, the book reviews and shows applications of a variety of tools, such as symbolic and coded dynamics, interacting agents models, microsimulation in econometrics, large-scale system analysis, and dynamical systems theory. It shows the potential of a comprehensive analysis of growth, fluctuations, and structural change along the lines indicated by pioneers like Harrod, Haavelmo, Hicks, Goodwin, Morishima, and it highlights the explanatory power of the qualitative approach they initiated.

Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession

Inflation Dynamics and the Great Recession
Author: Laurence M. Ball
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 58
Release: 2011-06-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1455263389

This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.

The Macroeconomics of Developing Countries

The Macroeconomics of Developing Countries
Author: Giovanni Andrea Cornia
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 470
Release: 2020-03-26
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0192598686

The Macroeconomics of Developing Countries provides a comprehensive discussion of the exogenous factors and macroeconomic policies that affect the business cycle, long term growth, and distribution of income in developing countries. It examines countries dependent on natural resources and affected by supply rigidities in agriculture. They also feature dualistic markets, a large informal sector, rapid population growth, a vulnerable export sector, and chronic dependence on a volatile global finance. The Macroeconomics of Developing Countries uses these examples to analyse the impact of stablization and adjustment politices on growth, inequality, and poverty. Despite the launch of the Sustainable Development Goals there is little consensus on how macroeconomic policies can be consistent with these objectives. The Macroeconomics of Developing Countries demonstrates that a critical application of standard models to developing countries can generate erroneous results and induce the adoption of incorrect policy. In order to address this, it discusses the key structural differences between advanced and developing countries in order to justify the construction of alternative models.

Predicting the Markets

Predicting the Markets
Author: Edward Yardeni
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2018-02-12
Genre:
ISBN: 9781948025003

I started my career on Wall Street in 1978. For the past 40 years on the Street, I have been thinking and writing about the economy and financial markets as both an economist and an investment strategist. While I have a solid academic background to be a Wall Street prognosticator, I learned a great deal on the job. In this book, I share my professional insights into predicting the economy and financial markets.