The Fine Structure of Asset Returns, Jumps, and Stochastic Volatility

The Fine Structure of Asset Returns, Jumps, and Stochastic Volatility
Author: . Jung-Suk Yu
Publisher: LAP Lambert Academic Publishing
Total Pages: 128
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN: 9783659392009

The various models have been built upon pioneering work of Robert F. Engle (2003) and Robert C. Merton (1997) for methods of analyzing economic time series with time-varying volatility and a new method to determine the value of derivatives, respectively. This book fills the gaps which Harry M. Markowitz's (1990) mean-variance analysis fails to capture. Especially, this book investigates dynamic processes of asset returns, volatility, and jumps which are time-varying and stochastic in discrete- and continuous-time settings. I demonstrate that these additional computational and modeling efforts provide us with significant benefits to better capture actual financial time-series data and to reduce option pricing errors. If we only consider mean and variance as in Markowitz, most likely we may not fully appreciate recent advances in risk managements, investments, and derivatives pricing since many researchers recognize the importance of economic and statistical roles of skewness and kurtosis. To better explain well-known skewness and excess kurtosis of financial time-series returns, I employ asymmetric fat-tailed distributions such as Hansen's skewed t-distribution and Levy jump models.

The Fine Structure of Asset Returns

The Fine Structure of Asset Returns
Author: Hélyette Geman
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2002
Genre:
ISBN:

We investigate the importance of diffusion and jumps in a new model for asset returns. In contrast to standard models, we allow for jump components displaying finite or infinite activity and variation. Empirical investigations of time series indicate that index dynamics are devoid of a diffusion component, which may be present in the dynamics of individual stocks. This leads to the conjecture, confirmed on options data, that the risk-neutral process should be free of a diffusion component. We conclude that the statistical and risk-neutral processes for equity prices are pure jump processes of infinite activity and finite variation.

Stochastic Volatility with Reset at Jumps

Stochastic Volatility with Reset at Jumps
Author: Jun Pan
Publisher:
Total Pages: 26
Release: 2009
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper presents a model for asset returns incorporating both stochastic volatility and jump effects. The return process is driven by two types of randomness: small random shocks and large jumps. The stochastic volatility process is affected by both types of randomness in returns. Specifically, in the absence of large jumps, volatility is driven by the small random shocks in returns through a GARCH(1,1) model, while the occurrence of a jump event breaks the persistence in the volatility process, and resets it to an unknown deterministic level. Model estimation is performed on daily returns of Samp;P~500 index using the maximum-likelihood method. The empirical results are discussed.

Stochastic Volatility, Jumps and Variance Risk Premia

Stochastic Volatility, Jumps and Variance Risk Premia
Author: Worapree Maneesoonthorn
Publisher:
Total Pages: 604
Release: 2013
Genre:
ISBN:

Planning for future movements in asset prices and understanding the variation in the return on assets are key to the successful management of investment portfolios. This thesis investigates issues related to modelling both asset return volatility and the large movements in asset prices that may be induced by the events in the general economy, as random processes, with the implications for risk compensation and the prediction thereof being a particular focus. Exploiting modern numerical Bayesian tools, a state space framework is used to conduct all inference, with the thesis making three novel contributions to the empirical finance literature. First, observable measures of physical and option-implied volatility on the S&P 500 market index are combined to conduct inference about the latent spot market volatility, with a dynamic structure specified for the variance risk premia factored into option prices. The pooling of dual sources of information, along with the use of a dynamic model for the risk premia, produces insights into the workings of the U.S. markets, plus yields accurate forecasts of several key variables, including over the recent period of stock market turmoil. Second, a new continuous time asset pricing model allowing for dynamics in, and interactions between, the occurrences of price and volatility jumps is proposed. Various hypotheses about the nature of extreme movements in both S&P 500 returns and the volatility of the index are analyzed, within a state space model in which the usual returns measure is supplemented by direct measures of physical volatility and price jumps. The empirical results emphasize the importance of modelling both types of jumps, with the link between the intensity of volatility jumps and certain key extreme events in the economy being drawn. Finally, an empirical exploration of an alternative framework for the statistical evaluation of price jumps is conducted, with the aim of comparing the resultant measures of return variance and jumps with those induced by more conventional methods. The empirical analysis sheds light on the potential impact of the method of measurement construction on inference about the asset pricing process, and ultimately any financial decisions based on such inference.

An Empirical Investigation of Continuous-time Equity Return Models

An Empirical Investigation of Continuous-time Equity Return Models
Author: Torben Gustav Andersen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 46
Release: 2001
Genre: Economics
ISBN:

This paper extends the class of stochastic volatility diffusions for asset returns to encompass Poisson jumps of time-varying intensity. We find that any reasonably descriptive continuous-time model for equity-index returns must allow for discrete jumps as well as stochastic volatility with a pronounced negative relationship between return and volatility innovations. We also find that the dominant empirical characteristics of the return process appear to be priced by the option market. Our analysis indicates a general correspondence between the evidence extracted from daily equity-index returns and the stylized features of the corresponding options market prices.

Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science: Financial Engineering

Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science: Financial Engineering
Author: John R. Birge
Publisher: Elsevier
Total Pages: 1026
Release: 2007-11-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9780080553252

The remarkable growth of financial markets over the past decades has been accompanied by an equally remarkable explosion in financial engineering, the interdisciplinary field focusing on applications of mathematical and statistical modeling and computational technology to problems in the financial services industry. The goals of financial engineering research are to develop empirically realistic stochastic models describing dynamics of financial risk variables, such as asset prices, foreign exchange rates, and interest rates, and to develop analytical, computational and statistical methods and tools to implement the models and employ them to design and evaluate financial products and processes to manage risk and to meet financial goals. This handbook describes the latest developments in this rapidly evolving field in the areas of modeling and pricing financial derivatives, building models of interest rates and credit risk, pricing and hedging in incomplete markets, risk management, and portfolio optimization. Leading researchers in each of these areas provide their perspective on the state of the art in terms of analysis, computation, and practical relevance. The authors describe essential results to date, fundamental methods and tools, as well as new views of the existing literature, opportunities, and challenges for future research.

Handbook Of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, And Machine Learning (In 4 Volumes)

Handbook Of Financial Econometrics, Mathematics, Statistics, And Machine Learning (In 4 Volumes)
Author: Cheng Few Lee
Publisher: World Scientific
Total Pages: 5053
Release: 2020-07-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9811202400

This four-volume handbook covers important concepts and tools used in the fields of financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Econometric methods have been applied in asset pricing, corporate finance, international finance, options and futures, risk management, and in stress testing for financial institutions. This handbook discusses a variety of econometric methods, including single equation multiple regression, simultaneous equation regression, and panel data analysis, among others. It also covers statistical distributions, such as the binomial and log normal distributions, in light of their applications to portfolio theory and asset management in addition to their use in research regarding options and futures contracts.In both theory and methodology, we need to rely upon mathematics, which includes linear algebra, geometry, differential equations, Stochastic differential equation (Ito calculus), optimization, constrained optimization, and others. These forms of mathematics have been used to derive capital market line, security market line (capital asset pricing model), option pricing model, portfolio analysis, and others.In recent times, an increased importance has been given to computer technology in financial research. Different computer languages and programming techniques are important tools for empirical research in finance. Hence, simulation, machine learning, big data, and financial payments are explored in this handbook.Led by Distinguished Professor Cheng Few Lee from Rutgers University, this multi-volume work integrates theoretical, methodological, and practical issues based on his years of academic and industry experience.