The Evaluation Of The Usd Currency And The Oil Prices
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| Author | : Eleftherios Ioannis Thalassinos |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 10 |
| Release | : 2015 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Dollar devaluation creates a huge problem in the world oil industry, leading to a vast decrease in the revenues of the oil producers, though the local oil producers use the local currencies to operate and the oil price is evaluated in dollars. The depreciation of the US dollar reduces the effect of the high prices in oil, making it rather cheap for all the countries and especially for the Eurozone area. The record high exchange rate of the Euro vis-à-vis dollar followed by a subsequent high of the crude oil price, suggests on a relation between the price of the oil and the evaluation of the US dollar. The main aim of this research is to construct an restricted Vector Autoregressive estimation model to simulate the relation between the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar and Euro against the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices for light crude oil, in connection with the impulse response of the prices to the various shocks. Lastly, a co integration test will illuminate the possibility of simultaneous long term integration along with Granger causality test to estimate the direction of causality in variables.
| Author | : James K. Jackson |
| Publisher | : DIANE Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 23 |
| Release | : 2008 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : 1437931464 |
This report analyzes the relationship between the dollar and the price of oil and how the two might interact. This report provides an assessment of the impact a range of prices of imported oil could have on the U.S. trade deficit.
| Author | : Andrey Zahariev |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 10 |
| Release | : 2017 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
The area of research in the paper is the USD as the leading currency on the foreign exchange market, while the research problem - the crude oil price volatility as a factor with an effect on the USD exchange rate. The analysis focuses on the proposition that there exists a correlation between the price volatility of the petrol, as a strategic energy commodity and the USD as a global leading reserve currency. The purpose of this article is to present a contemporary perspective to the assessment of the price volatility of crude oil, as a leading external to the US economy factor that influences the USD exchange rate as a global reserve currency with a dominant role in the volume of transactions on world currency markets. The expected results are focused on the establishment of the level of correlation or/and co-integration between the volatility of crude oil prices and the USD volatility compared to a “basket” of currencies.
| Author | : Dr. Arpit Sidhu |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 8 |
| Release | : 2020 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
Present paper investigates the relationship among oil prices and exchange rates in Indian market. Present paper uses two econometrics tools of dependence to establish co-movement amongst the variables viz. Johansen co-integration and Granger Causality tests to demonstrate that the foreign exchange value of the US dollar (Crude oil prices) has a substantial impact on the prices of crude oil (Exchange rate of US dollar) in long-term as well as short-term or not. The results evidenced that data is stationary at first difference order. However, Johansen co-integration suggests no co-integrating equation. It signifies the possibilities to take advantage from arbitrage activities in the long-run through diversification of the investment portfolios in these two non-integrated markets. Granger causality and Wald statistics evidences unidirectional causality flowing from exchange rate to oil prices but not vice-versa. Since exchange rate granger causes the oil prices, the participants in the foreign exchange market can use information of exchange rates to improve the forecast of crude oil prices. The results of present study have policy implications for oil importing countries to frame foreign exchange risk management, fiscal and monetary policies in such a way to control exchange rate induced pressures on crude oil prices as crude oil prices predominantly affect the emerging oil dependent industrialized economies like India.
| Author | : Kenneth L. Kincel |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 92 |
| Release | : 1978 |
| Genre | : Gasoline |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : George D. Hoeffner |
| Publisher | : Nova Science Pub Incorporated |
| Total Pages | : 159 |
| Release | : 2010 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 9781617286865 |
Rapid changes in the price of oil and the impact of such price changes on economies around the globe have attracted considerable attention. In mid-2008 as the price of oil rose to unprecedented heights and then dropped sharply, the international exchange value of the dollar fell and then rose relative to a broad basket of currencies. For some, these two events seem to indicate a cause and effect relationship between changes in the price of oil and changes in the value of the dollar. This book analyses the relationship between the dollar and the price of oil and how the two might interact and provides an assessment of the impact a range of prices of imported oil could have on the U.S. trade deficit.
| Author | : Mr.Aasim M. Husain |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 41 |
| Release | : 2015-07-14 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 151357227X |
The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
| Author | : Lutz Kilian |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 53 |
| Release | : 2019 |
| Genre | : Foreign exchange rates |
| ISBN | : |
There has been much interest in the relationship between the price of crude oil, the value of the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. interest rate since the 1980s. For example, the sustained surge in the real price of oil in the 2000s is often attributed to the declining real value of the U.S. dollar as well as low U.S. real interest rates, along with a surge in global real economic activity. Quantifying these effects one at a time is difficult not only because of the close relationship between the interest rate and the exchange rate, but also because demand and supply shocks in the oil market in turn may affect the real value of the dollar and real interest rates. We propose a novel identification strategy for disentangling the causal effects of oil demand and oil supply shocks from the effects of exogenous shocks to the U.S. real interest rate and exogenous shocks to the real value of the U.S. dollar. We empirically evaluate popular views about the role of exogenous real exchange rate shocks in driving the real price of oil, and we examine the extent to which shocks in the global oil market drive the U.S. real exchange rate and U.S. real interest rates. Our evidence for the first time provides direct empirical support for theoretical models of the link between oil prices, exchange rates, and interest rates.
| Author | : Amirdha Vasani Sankarkumar |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 1 |
| Release | : 2020 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
An attempt has been made in this paper, to investigate the effect of oil prices on the exchange rate of 13 Asia - Pacific sample countries against USD, for the period from 04th January 2000 to 31st March 2020. OLS and QR Models were adopted for the analysis. Japanese Yen and Hong Kong Dollar were not affected by the oil prices during the study period. Sample currencies responded differently to oil price shocks under current market conditions. The results of this study would be useful to the policy makers, in the context of variations of oil and currency markets.
| Author | : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 34 |
| Release | : 2021-11-12 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1616356154 |
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
