The Euros Effecton Trade Imbalances
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| Author | : Mr.Helge Berger |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 32 |
| Release | : 2010-10-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1455208914 |
When does trade become a one-way relationship? We study bilateral trade balances for a sample of 18 European countries over the period from 1948 through 2008. We find that, with the introduction of the euro, trade imbalances among euro area members widened considerably, even after allowing for permanent asymmetries in trade competitiveness within pairs of countries or in the overall trade competitiveness of individual countries. This is consistent with indications that pair-wise trade tends to be more balanced when nominal exchange rates are flexible. Intra-euro area imbalances also seem to have become more persistent with the introduction of the euro, some of which is linked to labor market inflexibility. Reviewing the direction of imbalances, we find that bilateral trade surpluses are decreasing in the real exchange rate, decreasing in growth differentials, and increasing in the relative volatility of national business cycles. Finally, countries with relatively higher fiscal deficits and less flexible labor and product markets exhibit systematically lower trade surpluses than others.
| Author | : Philip R. Lane |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 66 |
| Release | : 2007-06 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : |
Although Europe in the aggregate is a not a major contributor to global current account imbalances, its trade and financial linkages with the rest of the world mean that it will still be affected by a shift in the current configuration of external deficits and surpluses. We assess the macroeconomic impact on Europe of global current account adjustment under alternative scenarios, emphasizing both trade and financial channels. Finally, we consider heterogeneous exposure across individual European economies to external adjustment shocks.
| Author | : Rajmund Mirdala |
| Publisher | : Emerald Group Publishing |
| Total Pages | : 477 |
| Release | : 2017-08-22 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1787149544 |
This book offers a critical perspective from which to observe evolution of the Euro Area and the European Union in these times of growing economic and political conflict.
| Author | : Maurice Obstfeld |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 64 |
| Release | : 2004 |
| Genre | : Balance of trade |
| ISBN | : |
"Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets -- the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position -- the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations"--NBER website
| Author | : Ms.Ruo Chen |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 76 |
| Release | : 2012-10-09 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1475512120 |
The paper examines the extent to which current account imbalances of euro area countries are related to intra-euro area factors and to external trade shocks. We argue that the traditional explanations for the rising imbalances are correct, but are incomplete. We uncover a large impact of declines in export competitiveness and asymmetric trade developments vis-à-vis the rest of the world –in particular vis-à-vis China, Central and Eastern Europe, and oil exporters- on the external balance of euro area debtor countries. While current account imbalances of euro area deficit countries vis-à-vis the rest of the world increased, they were financed mostly by intra-euro area capital inflows (in particular by the purchase of government and financial institutions’ securities, and cross-border interbank lending) which permitted external imbalances to grow over time.
| Author | : Mr.Thierry Tressel |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 31 |
| Release | : 2014-07-22 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498396542 |
The paper examines progress with the external rebalancing of euro area deficit countries. Relative prices are adjusting at different pace across countries and with different compositions of wage cuts and labor shedding. There is so far limited evidence of resource re-allocation from non-tradable to tradable sectors, while improved export performance is still dependent on external demand from the rest of world. Current account adjustments have taken place, reflecting structural changes but also cyclical forces, suggesting that part of the improvements may unwind when cyclical conditions improve. Looking ahead, relying only on relative price adjustments (which adversely affects demand) to rebalance the euro area could prove very challenging. Structural reforms will play an important role in the reallocation of resources to the tradable sector and the associated relative price adjustment, while boosting non-price and price competitiveness.
| Author | : Ralph Buckle |
| Publisher | : London Publishing Partnership |
| Total Pages | : 185 |
| Release | : 2015-02-17 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 0255366825 |
Discussions on the outcome of a potential referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU have been characterised by political grandstanding, at the expense of serious economic analysis. With Brexit now a real possibility in the next Parliament, the IEA today releases a report outlining four different options for the UK in the event of a vote to leave the EU, all of which take into account both economic challenges and possibilities. In Brexit: Directions for Britain Outside the EU, various contributors outline several of possible approaches, ranging from a proposal that Britain should promote free trade and openness through the unilateral removal of trade barriers, to maintaining formal relationships with European countries through the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and/or the European Economic Area (EEA). Other proposals offer a view that the UK should seek to form economic and political alliances with countries outside of Europe, such as those in the Commonwealth.
| Author | : Mr.Helge Berger |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 63 |
| Release | : 2018-02-20 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1484344030 |
The paper makes an analytical contribution to the revived discussion about the euro area’s institutional setup. After significant progress during the euro crisis, the drive to complete Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) had stalled, and the way forward will benefit from an in-depth look at the conceptual issues raised by the evolution and architecture of Europe, and the tradeoffs involved. A thorough look at the underlying economic issues suggests that in the long run, EMU will benefit from progressing along three mutually supporting tracks: introduce more fiscal risk sharing, helping to make the sovereign “no bailout” rule credible; complementary financial sector reforms to delink sovereigns and banks; and more effective rules to discourage moral hazard. This evolution would ensure that financial markets provide incentives for fiscal discipline. Introducing more fiscal union comes with myriad legal, technical, operational, and political problems, raising questions well beyond the remit of economics. But without decisive progress to foster fiscal risk sharing, EMU will continue to face existential risks.
| Author | : Mr.Joong S Kang |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 31 |
| Release | : 2014-07-22 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498339026 |
The euro area periphery countries and the Baltic countries, which had large current account deficits in the run-up to the crisis, needed adjustment of relative prices to achieve both internal and external balances. Thus far, tangible progress has been made through lower wages and/or higher productivity relative to trading partners (“internal devaluation”), which contributed to narrowing current account deficits and shifting output towards the tradables sector. While some early adjusters cut wages more rapidly followed by productivity improvement, others have only slowly improved productivity largely through labor shedding. This adjustment for most countries has come along with a substantial recession as the unit labor cost improvement has largely come from falling employment and much of the current account improvement from import compression. Going forward, these countries still need to generate growing tradables sector employment and to continue adjustment to prevent imbalances from returning as output gaps close.
| Author | : Mr.Jarkko Turunen |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 17 |
| Release | : 2011-06-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1455265454 |
Concerns about export growth within the euro area peripheral countries due to a lack of competitiveness within the euro area are a key policy issue. Our analysis suggests that: (i) Long-term price elasticities for intra-euro area exports are at least double those for extra-euro area exports, so traditional real effective exchange rate indexes may overstate the effectiveness of euro depreciation in restoring exports growth in the euro area periphery and; (ii) There are surprisingly wide divergences across alternative relative price measures and even when relative price data suggest a steady loss in intra- (and extra-) euro area competitiveness, the pace of deterioration depends on the measure of relative prices used.
