The Employment And Wage Effects Of Oil Changes
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| Author | : Mr.Eswar Prasad |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 37 |
| Release | : 1995-04-01 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1451845510 |
In this paper, we use micro panel data to examine the effects of oil price changes on employment and real wages, at the aggregate and industry levels. We also measure differences in the employment and wage responses for workers differentiated on the basis of skill level. We find that oil price increases result in a substantial decline in real wages for all workers, but raise the relative wage of skilled workers. The use of panel data econometric techniques to control for unobserved heterogeneity is essential to uncover this result, which is completely hidden in OLS estimates. We find that changes in oil prices induce changes in employment shares and relative wages across industries. However, we find little evidence that oil price changes cause labor to consistently flow into those sectors with relative wage increases.
| Author | : Eswar S. Prasad |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 38 |
| Release | : 2006 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
In this paper, we use micro panel data to examine the effects of oil price changes on employment and real wages, at the aggregate and industry levels. We also measure differences in the employment and wage responses for workers differentiated on the basis of skill level. We find that oil price increases result in a substantial decline in real wages for all workers, but raise the relative wage of skilled workers. The use of panel data econometric techniques to control for unobserved heterogeneity is essential to uncover this result, which is completely hidden in OLS estimates. We find that changes in oil prices induce changes in employment shares and relative wages across industries. However, we find little evidence that oil price changes cause labor to consistently flow into those sectors with relative wage increases.
| Author | : Michael P. Keane |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 34 |
| Release | : 1995 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Mark Agerton |
| Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
| Total Pages | : 36 |
| Release | : 2015-02-11 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1498345514 |
Technological progress in the exploration and production of oil and gas during the 2000s has led to a boom in upstream investment and has increased the domestic supply of fossil fuels. It is unknown, however, how many jobs this boom has created. We use time-series methods at the national level and dynamic panel methods at the state-level to understand how the increase in exploration and production activity has impacted employment. We find robust statistical support for the hypothesis that changes in drilling for oil and gas as captured by rig-counts do in fact, have an economically meaningful and positive impact on employment. The strongest impact is contemporaneous, though months later in the year also experience statistically and economically meaningful growth. Once dynamic effects are accounted for, we estimate that an additional rig-count results in the creation of 37 jobs immediately and 224 jobs in the long run, though our robustness checks suggest that these multipliers could be bigger.
| Author | : Johanna Bocklet |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 64 |
| Release | : 2016 |
| Genre | : Alaska |
| ISBN | : |
The present paper uses a linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach in order to test for symmetric effects of oil price changes on employment in the oil-industry and employment in non-oil industries in Alaska. The ARDL model allows for the examination of short and long-run effects of employment by changes in crude oil prices, interest rate and personal income. Using quarterly data over the period 1987-2015, the long run results show strong positive correlation of crude oil prices and oil-industry employment and negative correlation between crude oil prices and employment in the non-oil industry in Alaska, supporting the sectoral shift hypothesis. Furthermore, interest rates significantly impact employment in both economic sectors, in the short and in the long run. While a higher interest rate leads to job creation in the oil-industry, it causes job destruction in the non-oil industry.
| Author | : Lars Matthiessen |
| Publisher | : Springer |
| Total Pages | : 217 |
| Release | : 1982-06-18 |
| Genre | : Business & Economics |
| ISBN | : 1349063614 |
| Author | : Michael Keane |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 34 |
| Release | : 1995 |
| Genre | : |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Michael P. Keane |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 50 |
| Release | : 1991 |
| Genre | : Petroleum products |
| ISBN | : |
| Author | : Steven J. Davis |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 36 |
| Release | : 1999 |
| Genre | : Automobile industry and trade |
| ISBN | : |
Abstract: We study the effects of oil price changes and other shocks on the creation and destruction of U.S. manufacturing jobs from 1972 to 1988. We find that oil shocks account for about 20-25 percent of the cyclical variability in employment growth under our identifying assumptions, twice as much as monetary shocks. Employment growth shows a sharply asymmetric response to oil price ups and downs, in contrast to the prediction of standard equilibrium business cycle models. The two-year employment response to an oil price increase rises (in magnitude) with capital intensity, energy intensity, and product durability. Job destruction shows much greater short-run sensitivity to oil and monetary shocks than job creation in every sector with the clear exception of young, small plants. Oil shocks also generate important reallocative effects. For example, we estimate that job reallocation rose by 11 percent of employment over 3-4 years in response to the 1973 oil shock. More than 80 percent of this response reflects greater job reallocation activity within manufacturing.
| Author | : Lars E. O. Svensson |
| Publisher | : |
| Total Pages | : 48 |
| Release | : 1982 |
| Genre | : Balance of trade |
| ISBN | : |
The paper examines welfare effects and the trade balance response to changes in the world oil prices and interest rates for a small oil-importing economy. The trade balance is mainly seen as the difference between saving and investment, and these are derived from intertemporal optimization. It is shown that the welfare effects consist of static terms of trade effects, intertemporal terms of trade effects, and employment effects. The trade balance deteriorates for temporary oil price increases, whereas its response is ambiguous for permanent oil price increases. For a fall in the world interest rate, the trade balance deteriorates, if the economy is a net borrower.
