Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Author: Jerry Yu Jien
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2015
Genre:
ISBN:

Damages inflicted by tropical cyclones (TCs) worldwide have increased in recent decades with climate change and variability playing key roles in altering TC characteristics. In this thesis, the impact of natural variability is explored, using ENSO conditions, and climate change on the nature of eastern North Pacific (ENP) TCs. The first research objective of the thesis focused on a spatial-temporal separation of ENP storms based on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase (temporal variability, El Niño, La Niña, neutral) and regional storm stratification (spatial variability, east and west). The western development region (WDR) storms were found to be more sensitive to influences of ENSO. In particular, during El Niño years, there were more WDR storms. The second research objective explored the ENSO impact on the trajectory of ENP storm tracks by examining the locations for genesis and downgradation points and storm track movements. The storm tracks were strongly influenced by ENSO phases, with significant differences detected for many ENSO pairings. However, when storm data are regionally separated the latitudinal movement of WDR storms tend to be more extensive during El Niño conditions and as a result there are more landfalling TCs. The third research objective of the dissertation explored the importance of near-time sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on storm intensities. SST thresholds were found that were critical for the sustenance of stronger ENP storms that achieve hurricane and major hurricane status. Significantly, the minimum SST threshold varied between the MDR subdivisions. For major hurricanes, the SST requirements for EDR and WDR are substantially lower than that found in the North Atlantic basin at 28.25°C. Although SSTs appear to contribute little in determining the ultimate maximum storm intensity for ENP storms in general, when ENP storms are regionally divided, SSTs are found to be highly associated with the WDR major hurricanes. Evidently the recent warming shown in the distribution of storm-bounded SSTs has led to the rise of maximum potential intensity for ENP storms. Overall, the common theme that emerged from these three studies is that ENP storm characteristics associated with WDR are inherently more sensitive to climate variability and change.

An Analysis of the Impacts of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones on Their Local and Large Scale Environment

An Analysis of the Impacts of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones on Their Local and Large Scale Environment
Author: Benjamin Alan Schenkel
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2012
Genre: Atmospheric physics
ISBN:

ABSTRACT: The following study examines the spatiotemporal response of the local scale and large scale environment to tropical cyclone (TC) passage. The research presented here is broken up into three chapters that can be separated into two parts. Given that the analysis of the environmental response to TC passage heavily relies upon the use of atmospheric reanalysis datasets, the first half of this dissertation (Chapter 2) will examine the fidelity of TC intensity, position, and intensity life cycle within five reanalyses to determine what reanalyses can be used for when studying TCs. The results of this analysis show an underestimation of reanalysis TC intensity beyond what can be attributed to the coarse grid resolution of reanalyses. Moreover, the mean life cycle of normalized TC intensity within reanalyses exhibits an underestimation of pre-peak intensification rates as well as a delay in the timing of peak TC intensity relative to the Best Track. Significant discrepancies between reanalysis and Best-Track TC position are noted to exist particularly in regions that are observation deficient. Of the five reanalyses examined, the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and JMA 25-yr Japanese Reanalysis (JRA-25) have the most robust representation of TCs particularly within the North Atlantic (NATL) and Western North Pacific (WPAC). The second half of this study examines the local scale (Chapter 3) and large scale (Chapter 4) impacts of WPAC TCs upon their environment using storm-relative composites. On local scales, TCs are found to cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) for at least a month following TC passage. The feedbacks from the SST cold wake combined with an initial net flux divergence of energy from the column yields a significant cooling and drying of the atmosphere that is strongest in the lower troposphere. Restoration of the environment is eventually achieved through a return of SSTs to climatology and a net flux convergence of potential energy aloft. The large scale response of the environment is primarily associated with an anomalous drying of the lower and middle tropospheric atmospheric environment to the west and southwest of the TC. The drying appears to be caused by upper level convergence resulting from the interaction of the TC outflow with its environment. On the western side of the TC, both the upper level flow from the anticyclone of the Asian monsoon and the increasing inertial stability with latitude due to the meridional gradient of planetary vorticity limit the ventilation to the west of the TC yielding upper level convergence and subsidence. The area of anomalous drying to the southwest is associated with the convergent upper level flow from the right exit region of the anticyclonically curved equatorward outflow jet of the TC. Lastly, the meridional transport of total energy by TCs results in a substantial cross hemispheric export of dry static energy nearly 4000 km southwards as result of the upper level outflow jet of the TC. The meridional dry static energy transports by TCs appear to comprise a substantial portion of the total atmospheric dry static energy transports at the equator during late summer and early fall. In their totality, these results suggest that TCs may significantly impact their environment both on long temporal scales and large spatial scales with potentially significant aggregate climate impacts in the WPAC given the high frequency of TC occurrence.

Tropical Cyclones of the Eastern North Pacific as Revealed by TIROS Observations

Tropical Cyclones of the Eastern North Pacific as Revealed by TIROS Observations
Author: James C. Sadler
Publisher:
Total Pages: 78
Release: 1963
Genre: Cyclones
ISBN:

Photographic data from TIROS satellites indicate the frequency of tropical cyclones of tropical storm and hurricane intensity, to be some three times greater than the frequency determined by conventional meteorological data in the eastern North Pacific. The sea surface temperatures exert an influence on the size, intensity and track of the cyclones but the dominant influence which prevents a large number of cyclones from being exported into the central Pacific with hurricane force winds is the ''killing'' ef fect of extreme vertical shear as the cyclones pass through the upper tropospheric ridge line. TIROS data are presented to illustrate the ef fects of these influences, separately and in combination, on the life history of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones. (Author).