The Effect of Remittances on Egypt's Economic Growth

The Effect of Remittances on Egypt's Economic Growth
Author: Samar Amr Naga
Publisher:
Total Pages: 178
Release: 2015
Genre: Economic development
ISBN:
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Abstract: This paper tests the relationship between remittances along with other macroeconomic variables such as; investment, FDI and openness to trade and GDP per capita. In order to test this relationship, this study has depended on Multiple Linear Regression Model in which time series analysis of the annual data about the variables from 1977 until 2013 is used. The results extracted from the model have shown that there is a strong positive and significant relationship between investment and GDP per capita. Besides, the results have showed that there is a strong positive and significant relationship between openness to trade and GDP per capita. However, the results have showed that there is a negative significant relationship between FDI and GDP per capita. Moreover, the findings have revealed that there is insignificant positive relationship between remittances and GDP per capita. Given the insignificant effect between remittances and economic growth, we have decided in this paper to use the data from the empirical survey done by the (IOM) in collaboration with the Ministry of Manpower and Migration on 200 remittance- receiving households for two main reasons. One of reasons is to identify the cause behind having this insignificant effect between the two pre-stated variables. The second reason is to demonstrate to the Government the importance of getting benefit of these international surveys to know how the remittances are used in the meantime from households' perspective as well to demonstrate the variables that households perceive as critical and significant variables that could affect their decision to invest in the country. Finally, in this paper, we have showed case studies of how other countries have succeeded to encourage its migrants to transfer more money to be invested in productive projects. The main aim of showing these case studies is to give the Egyptian government a guideline of what are the policies and procedures it could follow to overcome the obstacles and the variables seen by the households as critical variables hindering their investment in Egypt.

COVID-19 and the Egyptian economy: Estimating the impacts of expected reductions in tourism, Suez Canal revenues, and remittances

COVID-19 and the Egyptian economy: Estimating the impacts of expected reductions in tourism, Suez Canal revenues, and remittances
Author: Breisinger, Clemens
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 6
Release: 2020-04-01
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:
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Egypt’s recent economic success will almost certainly be interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine the likely impact on the Egyptian economy of a significant reduction in tourism, payments received from the Suez Canal, and remittances from Egyptians working abroad because of the slowdown in the global economy due to the COVID-19 virus. Our results suggest that COVID-19 could reduce national GDP by between 0.7 and 0.8 percent (EGP 36 to 41 billion) for each month that the global crisis continues. Similarly, household consumption and expenditure is estimated to decline on average by between EGP 153 and EGP 180 per person per month, which is between 9.0 and 10.6 percent of average household income. The cumulative loss in GDP from these three external shocks alone could amount to between 2.1 and 4.8 percent of annual GDP in 2020 if the crisis lasts for 3 to 6 months. While the country’s focus currently is rightly on fighting the health crisis and mitigating its immediate impacts, planning on how to re-open the economy should also start now.

COVID-19 and the Egyptian Economy: From reopening to recovery: Alternative pathways and impacts on sectors, jobs, and households

COVID-19 and the Egyptian Economy: From reopening to recovery: Alternative pathways and impacts on sectors, jobs, and households
Author: Breisinger, Clemens
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages: 11
Release: 2020-11-24
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:
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Although the global economy is forecasted to shrink by 4.4 percent in 2020 (IMF 2020), the Egyptian economy is proving resilient to the immense human and financial costs caused by the global COVID-19 pandemic. This resilience is mainly explained by the successful implementation of the economic reform program since 2016 that provided more fiscal space to withstand the adverse impact of the COVID-19 crisis. However, that Egypt’s economy is holding up is also due to the rapid response and proactive measures to limit the impact of the virus that were implemented by the Egyptian Government since March 2020 (MPED 2020). These enabled the country to avoid a full lockdown policy (Figure 1). While Egypt posted negative economic growth rates from April to June 2020 at the height of the crisis, overall economic growth was still positive at 3.6 percent for fiscal year (FY) 2019/20. This estimate is only slightly lower than the initial projection of the impact of the pandemic on Egypt’s economy of an annual economic growth equal to 3.8 percent, as estimated by staff of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development (MPED) (Breisinger et al. 2020). The deviation between the early and final estimate can be mainly explained by the lower than expected growth rates in the manufacturing and health services sectors and the better than expected performance of the trade and transport sectors.

Impact of COVID-19 on the Egyptian economy: Economic sectors, jobs, and households

Impact of COVID-19 on the Egyptian economy: Economic sectors, jobs, and households
Author: Breisinger, Clemens
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
Total Pages:
Release: 2020-06-15
Genre: Political Science
ISBN:
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The COVID-19 crisis may lead to a 1.1 percent decline in Egypt’s GDP during the 4th quarter (April to June) of the 2019/20 fiscal year, compared to the same quarter in 2018/19. Without the Government of Egypt’s COVID-19 emergency response package, GDP in Q4 may have declined by 8.7 percent. Tak-ing the emergency response pack-age into account, we estimate an annual growth rate of 3.8 percent for FY 2019/20. Without the emer-gency response package, annual growth for FY 2019/20 may have been as low as 1.9 percent. The services sector is hit hardest, falling by 10.9 percent, followed by industry at -8.3 percent. Agriculture is the most resilient sector. However, these losses are lower than those expected in comparable countries, especially those that resorted to extended periods of full lockdowns. Impacts on Egypt’s agri-food system are less severe than elsewhere in the economy. Most damage will occur in nonfarm components of the agri-food system due to falling consumer demand. Although higher-income households face the largest income losses, lower-income households also will see their incomes decline significantly. The level of social protection required to fully offset the income losses of poor households is likely to be prohibitive, especially given falling revenues from reduced economic activity. Continuing to gradually open the economy again will be critical for avoiding permanent job losses and increases in poverty for the coming year. The process of re-opening the economy may also provide opportunities for fostering more private sector-driven and sustainable economic transformation.

Egypt's Economic Potential (RLE Egypt)

Egypt's Economic Potential (RLE Egypt)
Author: Roberto Aliboni
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 256
Release: 2013-01-03
Genre: Reference
ISBN: 1135086885
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Over the last ten years the Egyptian economy has undergone a major transformation which has led to greater decentralisation and international competition. This transformation, along with changing circumstances in the surrounding Arab areas and the end of hostilities with Israel, has given a boost to the Egyptian economy. Without underestimating the obstacles that still stand in the way of sustained economic growth and development, this book foresees a more optimistic outlook for Egypt than do other such studies carried out by international organisations such as the World Bank. Egypt’s Economic Potential argues that the main problem facing the Egyptian economy is that the government must resort to expensive public expenditure policies, in particular subsidising foodstuffs, in order to maintain the political consensus. This creates a savings gap which prevents the authorities from channelling savings towards financing the projects which will cerate economic growth. However, the book suggests that because the present regime is fundamentally stable and even further change at the top would be unlikely to alter the institutional framework of the country, the Egyptian economy has the potential for stable and rapid growth.

What Drives Prices in Egypt?

What Drives Prices in Egypt?
Author:
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Total Pages: 263
Release: 2009
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 9774163036
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Since 2004, economic reforms in Egypt have led to robust expansion, a healthy external position, and enhanced investor confidence. But despite these positive macroeconomic developments, inflation has been steadily rising. Does fiscal policy threaten price stability? Does wage growth in the Egyptian economy lead price inflation, or is it the reverse? In this volume, these and other questions are examined by contributors who participated in a conference held in Cairo in late 2007. Here is a coherent and comprehensive analysis of the factors driving prices in Egypt, in an attempt to find a satisfactory balance between prices and economic growth. While Egypt is the focus of the analysis, the papers draw upon the relevant literature, and international experience, the findings can be applied to other middle-income economies. This timely study helps to explain the complex issues facing economists and policymakers, with proposals for reform. Contributors: Hala Abou-Ali, Hala Fares, Omneia A. Helmy, Alaa Ibrahim, Hanaa Kheir-El-Din, Rania Al-Mashat, Diaa Noureldin, Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, and Sherine Al-Shawarby.