The Effect of Meeting Analyst Forecasts and Systematic Positive Forecast Errors on the Information Content of Unexpected Earnings

The Effect of Meeting Analyst Forecasts and Systematic Positive Forecast Errors on the Information Content of Unexpected Earnings
Author: Thomas J. Lopez
Publisher:
Total Pages: 39
Release: 2001
Genre:
ISBN:

This paper focuses on two distinct, but related, issues with respect to managers' incentives to report earnings that meet or exceed analysts' expectations. First, we assess the differential stock price sensitivity to earnings that meet or exceed analysts' expectations compared to those that do not. Second, we examine whether the market implicitly revises analysts' earnings forecasts for firms that systematically report earnings that exceed forecasts. We find that the earnings response coefficient (ERC) is significantly higher for firms that meet analysts' forecasts. Additionally, we find that the market recognizes and adjusts the forecast error of firms that exhibit a systematic pattern of reporting positive or negative unexpected earnings. The market fully adjusts for the systematic component of the forecast error when it is negative; however, only a partial adjustment is made when the systematic component is positive. Overall, our evidence suggests that managers who try to report earnings that meet analysts' forecasts are responding to two market incentives. First, the market provides a premium to positive forecast errors and assigns a higher multiple to the level of positive unexpected earnings. Second, though the market recognizes systematic bias in analysts' forecasts, it does not fully adjust for systematically positive forecast errors. Our evidence provides, at a minimum, a partial explanation for managers' fixation on reporting positive unexpected earnings.

The Relative Importance of Forecast Accuracy Determinants Revisited

The Relative Importance of Forecast Accuracy Determinants Revisited
Author: Alain Coen
Publisher:
Total Pages: 40
Release: 2008
Genre:
ISBN:

We analyze earnings forecasting errors made by financial analysts for 18 European countries over the 1995-2006 period. We use the Heston-Rouwenhorst approach to unravel country-, industry-, and firm-specific effects as a source of variation in financial analysts' earnings forecast errors. We first estimate each effect with a dummy variable regression, and then decompose the variance of forecast errors into different effects. We provide evidence that the differences among countries, industrial sectors, or analyst following offer a weak explanation for differences in forecast errors. Country effects however largely dominate industry and analyst following effects on European stock markets. By contrast, the type of earnings - profits or losses - and variations in earnings - increases or decreases - play a significant role in the performance of financial analysts.

The Impact of Fiscal Consolidations on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Impact of Fiscal Consolidations on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Author: Francisco Arizala
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 32
Release: 2017-12-15
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484333594

This paper examines the output effects of changes in public expenditure and revenue in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990–2016. Fiscal multipliers in sub-Saharan Africa are somewhat smaller than those in advanced and emerging economies. The effect of changes in fiscal policy on output depends on the composition: cutting public investment has a larger effect on output than cutting public consumption or raising revenue. Episodes of fiscal consolidation have short- and medium-term output effects, but here, too, composition matters: fiscal consolidations based on reducing public investment have the largest effect on output, while fiscal consolidations based on revenue mobilization are less harmful than those based on public investment cuts. These findings suggest that the negative impact on growth can be mitigated through the design of fiscal adjustment and the accompanying policy environment.

International Financial Reporting Standards Implementation

International Financial Reporting Standards Implementation
Author: Mohammad Nurunnabi
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
Total Pages: 276
Release: 2021-08-23
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1801174423

Contributions to International Accounting aims to address a vital gap in research by focusing on providing relevant and timely studies on International Financial Reporting Standards implementation for local and international policymakers.

Portfolio and Investment Analysis with SAS

Portfolio and Investment Analysis with SAS
Author: John B. Guerard
Publisher: SAS Institute
Total Pages: 277
Release: 2019-04-03
Genre: Computers
ISBN: 1635266890

Choose statistically significant stock selection models using SAS® Portfolio and Investment Analysis with SAS®: Financial Modeling Techniques for Optimization is an introduction to using SAS to choose statistically significant stock selection models, create mean-variance efficient portfolios, and aggressively invest to maximize the geometric mean. Based on the pioneering portfolio selection techniques of Harry Markowitz and others, this book shows that maximizing the geometric mean maximizes the utility of final wealth. The authors draw on decades of experience as teachers and practitioners of financial modeling to bridge the gap between theory and application. Using real-world data, the book illustrates the concept of risk-return analysis and explains why intelligent investors prefer stocks over bonds. The authors first explain how to build expected return models based on expected earnings data, valuation ratios, and past stock price performance using PROC ROBUSTREG. They then show how to construct and manage portfolios by combining the expected return and risk models. Finally, readers learn how to perform hypothesis testing using Bayesian methods to add confidence when data mining from large financial databases.

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2017, Sub-Saharan Africa

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2017, Sub-Saharan Africa
Author: International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 129
Release: 2017-11-27
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484320972

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has recovered relative to 2016, but the momentum is weak and per capita incomes are expected to barely increase. Further, vulnerabilities have risen in many countries, adding to the urgency of implementing the fiscal consolidations planned in most countries and with stepped up efforts to strengthen growth.