Similarity-Augmented Structural Vector Autoregression

Similarity-Augmented Structural Vector Autoregression
Author: Visa Kuntze
Publisher:
Total Pages: 0
Release: 2022
Genre:
ISBN:

We develop a similarity-based structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model using the similar clusters of data relevant for the prevailing initial macroeconomic conditions of interest. Our computationally attractive simple approach enables us to uncover time-varying effects of structural economic shocks in a flexible manner in relevant local environments instead of relying on a model estimated from the entire sample period. Our empirical results show that the dynamic effects of forward guidance shocks are generally dependent on the stance of monetary policy and typically rather negligible for output and inflation.

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Spring 2012

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Spring 2012
Author: Herman Royer Professor of Political Economy David H Romer
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
Total Pages: 423
Release: 2012-08-31
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0815724322

"Brookings Papers on Economic Activity" (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues. Contents - Democratic Change in the Arab World, Past and Present Eric Chaney (Harvard University) - Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession James Stock (Harvard University) and Mark Watson (Princeton University) - Macroeconomic Effects of FOMC Forward Guidance Jeffrey Campbell, Charles Evans, Jonas Fisher, and Alejandro Justiniano (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) - Is the Debt Overhang Holding Back Consumption? Karen Dynan (Brookings Institution) - The Euro's Three Crises Jay Shambaugh (Georgetown University) - Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy J. Bradford DeLong (University of California-Berkeley) and Lawrence Summers (Harvard University )

The Structural Foundations of Monetary Policy

The Structural Foundations of Monetary Policy
Author: Michael D. Bordo
Publisher: Hoover Press
Total Pages: 328
Release: 2018-03-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 0817921362

In The Structural Foundations of Monetary Policy, Michael D. Bordo, John H. Cochrane, and Amit Seru bring together discussions and presentations from the Hoover Institution's annual monetary policy conference. The conference participants discuss long-run monetary issues facing the world economy, with an emphasis on deep, unresolved structural questions. They explore vital issues affecting the Federal Reserve, the United States' central bank. They voice concern over the Fed's independence, governance, and ability to withstand future shocks and analyze the effects of its monetary policies and growing balance sheet in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. The authors ask a range of questions that get to the heart of twenty-first-century monetary policy. What should the role of the Fed be? Which policies and strategies will mitigate the risks of the next crisis and at the same time spur innovation and job creation? How can new technology make the Fed's payment system safer, faster, and more efficient? What does the emergence of crypto-currencies such as Bitcoin mean for competition and stability? How can the Fed defend itself against exploitation and politicization? Finally they propose reforms to ensure that the Fed will remain independent, stable, strong, and resilient in an unpredictable world.

Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks

Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks
Author: Davide Debortoli
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 56
Release: 2017-07-21
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484311752

Yes, it makes a lot of sense. This paper studies how to design simple loss functions for central banks, as parsimonious approximations to social welfare. We show, both analytically and quantitatively, that simple loss functions should feature a high weight on measures of economic activity, sometimes even larger than the weight on inflation. Two main factors drive our result. First, stabilizing economic activity also stabilizes other welfare relevant variables. Second, the estimated model features mitigated inflation distortions due to a low elasticity of substitution between monopolistic goods and a low interest rate sensitivity of demand. The result holds up in the presence of measurement errors, with large shocks that generate a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and resource utilization, and also when ensuring a low probability of hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates.

Household Leverage and the Recession

Household Leverage and the Recession
Author: Callum Jones
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 51
Release: 2018-08-30
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484374983

We evaluate and partially challenge the ‘household leverage’ view of the Great Recession. In the data, employment and consumption declined more in states where household debt declined more. We study a model where liquidity constraints amplify the response of consumption and employment to changes in debt. We estimate the model with Bayesian methods combining state and aggregate data. Changes in household credit limits explain 40 percent of the differential rise and fall of employment across states, but a small fraction of the aggregate employment decline in 2008-2010. Nevertheless, since household deleveraging was gradual, credit shocks greatly slowed the recovery.

Announcement-specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Macroeconomic Effects

Announcement-specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Macroeconomic Effects
Author: Daniel J. Lewis
Publisher:
Total Pages:
Release: 2019
Genre:
ISBN:

I propose to identify announcement-specific decompositions of asset price changes into monetary policy shocks based on intraday time-varying volatility. This approach is the first to accommodate changes in both the nature of shocks and the state of the economy across announcements. I compute daily historical decompositions with respect to three monetary policy shocks for the United States from 2007 to 2018. I derive expressions for the asymptotic variance of such historical decompositions and apply them to assess the statistical significance of notable announcements. Only a handful spark significant shocks, and I discuss the characteristics of those announcements in detail. For many announcements, asset purchase shocks lower corporate borrowing costs, but spreads increase in response to both asset purchases and forward guidance. Turning to the real economy, I find that the asset purchase shock has significant effects on consumer and professional expectations of inflation and GDP growth. I compute dynamic responses of inflation and GDP growth; asset purchases have significant expansionary effects, while fed funds shocks and forward guidance do not.

Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S.

Innocent Bystanders? Monetary Policy and Inequality in the U.S.
Author: Mr.Olivier Coibion
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 57
Release: 2012-08-01
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1475505493

We study the effects and historical contribution of monetary policy shocks to consumption and income inequality in the United States since 1980. Contractionary monetary policy actions systematically increase inequality in labor earnings, total income, consumption and total expenditures. Furthermore, monetary shocks can account for a significant component of the historical cyclical variation in income and consumption inequality. Using detailed micro-level data on income and consumption, we document the different channels via which monetary policy shocks affect inequality, as well as how these channels depend on the nature of the change in monetary policy.

Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations

Inflation News and Euro Area Inflation Expectations
Author: Juan Angel Garcia
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
Total Pages: 59
Release: 2018-07-19
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1484363019

Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protracted period of low (and below-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened their anchoring. Testing their sensitivity to inflation and macroeconomic news, this paper expands existing results in two key dimensions. First, by analyzing all available (advanced) inflation releases. Second, the reactions of expectations are investigated at daily, time-varying and intraday frequency regressions to add robustness to our conclusions. Results point to a significant impact of inflation news over recent years that had not been observed before in the euro area.

Inflation Expectations

Inflation Expectations
Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
Total Pages: 402
Release: 2009-12-16
Genre: Business & Economics
ISBN: 1135179778

Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.