The Distributional Effects Of Government Spending Shocks In Developing Economies
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Author | : Davide Furceri |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 39 |
Release | : 2018-03-14 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484347978 |
We construct unanticipated government spending shocks for 103 developing countries from 1990 to 2015 and study their effects on income distribution. We find that unanticipated fiscal consolidations lead to a long-lasting increase in income inequality, while fiscal expansions lower inequality. The results are robust to several measures of income distribution and size of the fiscal shocks, to an alternative identification strategy, across expansions and recessions and across country groups (low-income countries versus emerging markets). An additional contribution of the paper is the computation of the medium-term inequality multiplier. This is on average about 1 in our sample, meaning that a cumulative decrease in government spending of 1 percent of GDP over 5 years is associated with a cumulative increase in the Gini coefficient over the same period of about 1 percentage point. The multiplier is larger for total government expenditure than for public investment and consumption (with the former having larger effect), likely due to the redistributive role of transfers. Finally, we find that (unanticipated) fiscal consolidations lead to an increase in poverty.
Author | : Davide Furceri |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 39 |
Release | : 2017-10-20 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484320700 |
This paper provides new empirical evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in developing economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify unanticipated changes in public investment, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output in the short and medium term, with an average short-term fiscal multiplier of about 0.2. We find some evidence that the effects are larger: (i) during periods of slack; (ii) in economies operating with fixed exchange rate regimes; (iii) in more closed economies; (iv) in countries with lower public debt; and (v) in countries with higher investment efficiency. Finally, we show that increases in public investment tend to lower income inequality.
Author | : Mr.Nooman Rebei |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 31 |
Release | : 2017-03-13 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1475586671 |
We empirically revisit the crowding-in effect of government spending on private consumption based on rolling windows of U.S. data. Results show that in earlier samples government spending is increasingly crowding in private consumption; however, this relation is reverted in the latest periods. We propose a model embedding non-separable public and private consumption in the utility function and rule-of-thumb consumers to assess the sources of non-monotonic changes in the transmission of the shock. The iterative full information estimation of the model reveals that changes in the co-movement between private and public spending is primarily driven by the fluctuations in the elasticity of substitution between private and public consumption, the share of financially constrained consumers, and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution.
Author | : Francesco Giavazzi |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 40 |
Release | : 2012 |
Genre | : |
ISBN | : |
Author | : Mr.Abdul Abiad |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 26 |
Release | : 2015-05-04 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1484361555 |
This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.
Author | : Ethan Ilzetzki |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 68 |
Release | : 2011-03-01 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1455218022 |
We contribute to the intense debate on the real effects of fiscal stimuli by showing that the impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key country characteristics, such as the level of development, exchange rate regime, openness to trade, and public indebtedness. Based on a novel quarterly dataset of government expenditure in 44 countries, we find that (i) the output effect of an increase in government consumption is larger in industrial than in developing countries, (ii) the fisscal multiplier is relatively large in economies operating under predetermined exchange rate but zero in economies operating under flexible exchange rates; (iii) fiscal multipliers in open economies are lower than in closed economies and (iv) fiscal multipliers in high-debt countries are also zero.
Author | : François Bourguignon |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 440 |
Release | : 2003 |
Genre | : Economic assistance |
ISBN | : 0821354914 |
Reviews techniques and tools that can be used to evaluate the poverty and distributional impact of economic policy choices. This title describes the most robust techniques and tools, from the simplest to the most complex, and aims to identify best practices. It also addresses an evaluation technique and its applications.
Author | : Blanca Moreno-Dodson |
Publisher | : World Bank Publications |
Total Pages | : 286 |
Release | : 2012-10 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 0821396307 |
Fiscal policy is an important instrument for maintaining and improving living standards. Such living standards can be viewed as an outcome of the interaction between the opportunities offered by society and the readiness and ability of each person to exploit them. Under certain circumstances, public finance can make an important contribution to the creation of opportunities within a given society by raising resources from the private sector through taxation or borrowing (domestic and external) and allocating those resources effectively and equitably in the form of public spending, including through public goods and transfers. The first chapters in this volume sketch out a framework that policy makers can use in adopting a more cohesive or integrated approach to the short- and long-term dimensions of fiscal policy. Here the traditional threefold rationale for fiscal policy proposed by Musgrave-stabilization, resource allocation, and distribution-continues to be useful. Other chapters in this volume take up some of the critical institutional challenges in implementing fiscal policy for longer-term growth and development. These chapters also look at the tools and approaches being developed to address these challenges. Improving the quality of public investment management is a particular priority in view of the recent evidence that as little as half of all public investment expenditure translates into productive capital stock. The last chapter in this volume is a case study of fiscal responses to the great recession in low-income Sub-Saharan Africa, looking at stabilization and the longer-run growth, as well as distributional aspects of such responses. The growing depth of domestic financial markets in many African countries rather unexpectedly is turning out to be a critical source of financing for fiscal policy responses.
Author | : Richard Hemming |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 62 |
Release | : 2002-12 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : |
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Author | : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris |
Publisher | : International Monetary Fund |
Total Pages | : 39 |
Release | : 2015-06-15 |
Genre | : Business & Economics |
ISBN | : 1513547437 |
This paper analyzes the extent of income inequality from a global perspective, its drivers, and what to do about it. The drivers of inequality vary widely amongst countries, with some common drivers being the skill premium associated with technical change and globalization, weakening protection for labor, and lack of financial inclusion in developing countries. We find that increasing the income share of the poor and the middle class actually increases growth while a rising income share of the top 20 percent results in lower growth—that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down. This suggests that policies need to be country specific but should focus on raising the income share of the poor, and ensuring there is no hollowing out of the middle class. To tackle inequality, financial inclusion is imperative in emerging and developing countries while in advanced economies, policies should focus on raising human capital and skills and making tax systems more progressive.